Labor Primary Support Remains Above 50%
| Finding No. 4219 -
October 05, 2007 |
On September 29/30, the ALP primary vote dropped 0.5% to 53.5%, while Coalition support also fell 0.5% to 35.5% during the same period.
With preferences distributed as they were at the 2004 Federal election, the two-party preferred vote is ALP 61% (up 0.5%), L-NP 39% (down 0.5%). If the Federal election had been held last weekend the ALP would have won in a massive landslide, the latest ‘face-to-face’ Morgan Poll finds.
Among the minor parties, support for The Greens is 5.5% (unchanged), Family First 1.5% (up 0.5%), Australian Democrats 1.5% (up 1%); One Nation 0.5% (unchanged); and Other Parties and Independent Candidates 2% (down 0.5%).
More electors now think the ALP will win the next Federal election (61%, up 4.5%), while 27% (down 3.5%) think the L-NP will win and 12% (down 1%) can’t say.
Less than half the number of electors (49.5%, down 2.5%) think Australia is heading in the “right direction”, while 34.5% (up 2.5%) think Australia is heading in the “wrong direction” — 16% (unchanged) are undecided.
Currently, 21.5% (up 1.5%) of all electors say Australia is “heading in the right direction” yet say they would vote Labor if an election were held today — this is the highest result since the Morgan Poll began measuring voting strength in late May. The Morgan Poll considers these electors to be “Soft ALP voters” and believe they are the key to the Federal election.
Gary Morgan says:
“Of concern to John Howard and his team is that this is the second week in a row the ‘face-to-face’ Morgan Poll — the only Australian public opinion poll conducted every week — finds primary support for the ALP well above 50%, while support for the Coalition is down 0.5% to 35.5%.
“Mr. Howard will be hoping that once the election is called voters will begin to scrutinise the ALP and Kevin Rudd more closely. We also know that a large number of electors — more than 20% — don’t make up their mind as to who they are going to vote for until they walk into the booth.
“Despite the fall in the ALP vote, the number of ‘Soft ALP voters’ increased by 1.5% to 21.5% — the highest result since the Morgan Poll began measuring voting strength in late May.”
Electors were asked: “If a Federal election for the House of Representatives were being held today - which party would receive your first preference?”
Of all electors surveyed, 4.5% (unchanged) did not name a party.
This latest face-to-face Morgan Poll on Federal voting intention was conducted on the weekend of September 29/30, 2007, with an Australia-wide cross-section of 894 electors.
During the period:
• Kevin Rudd’s wife Therese Rein’s company WorkDirections UK clashed with British unions after winning contracts to find employment for disabled workers;
• Prime Minister John Howard revoked the Federal Government’s offer of a State memorial service for former Labor Senator Bob Collins saying it was not appropriate given the emergence of sexual abuse allegations;
• At least nine people, including several monks, were killed in Burma as the military junta cracked down on anti-Government protestors; and
• John Howard introduced $150,000 grants for drought-afflicted farmers to abandon their lands.
For further information:
Gary Morgan: Office +61 3 9224 5213 Mobile +61 411 129 094
Michele Levine: Office +61 3 9224 5215 Mobile +61 411 129 093
AUSTRALIA HEADING IN “RIGHT” OR “WRONG” DIRECTION
Respondents were asked: “Generally speaking, do you feel that things in Australia are heading in the right direction or would you say things are seriously heading in the wrong direction?”
| |
Interviewing Dates |
| |
May
26/27 |
June
2/3 |
June 9/10
& 16/17 |
June 23/24 &
June 30/July 1 |
July 7/8
& 14/15 |
July 21/22
& 28/29 |
Aug 4/5
& 11/12 |
Aug 18/19
& 25/26 |
Sep
1/2 |
Sep
8/9 |
Sep
15/16 |
Sep
22/23 |
Sep
29/30 |
| |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
|
Right direction |
50.5 |
48.5 |
51.5 |
51.5 |
55.5 |
49 |
49 |
48.5 |
47 |
48 |
52.5 |
52 |
49.5 |
|
Wrong direction |
33 |
32.5 |
33.5 |
31 |
30 |
33.5 |
34.5 |
33 |
34.5 |
37 |
32 |
32 |
34.5 |
|
Can’t say |
16.5 |
19 |
15 |
17.5 |
14.5 |
17.5 |
16.5 |
18.5 |
18.5 |
15 |
15.5 |
16 |
16 |
|
Total |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
VOTING STRENGTH
| |
Interviewing Dates |
| |
May
26/27 |
June
2/3 |
June 9/10
& 16/17 |
June 23/24 &
June 30/July 1 |
July 7/8
& 14/15 |
July 21/22
& 28/29 |
Aug 4/5
& 11/12 |
Aug 18/19
& 25/26 |
Sep
1/2 |
Sep
8/9 |
Sep
15/16 |
Sep
22/23 |
Sep
29/30 |
| |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
|
Strong L-NP voters |
32 |
32 |
32.5 |
31 |
36 |
34 |
31.5 |
34.5 |
28.5 |
32 |
34.5 |
32.5 |
30 |
|
Soft L-NP voters |
5.5 |
6 |
4.5 |
5 |
4.5 |
6.5 |
5 |
6.5 |
6 |
4 |
5 |
3.5 |
5.5 |
|
Total L-NP voters |
37.5 |
38 |
37 |
36 |
40.5 |
40.5 |
36.5 |
41 |
34.5 |
36 |
39.5 |
36 |
35.5 |
|
Soft ALP voters |
17.5 |
19 |
19 |
20.5 |
19.5 |
17 |
19 |
17 |
18.5 |
17 |
19 |
20 |
21.5 |
|
Strong ALP voters |
31.5 |
32 |
29 |
30 |
28 |
30 |
30.5 |
29 |
30.5 |
34 |
30.5 |
34 |
32 |
|
Total ALP voters |
49 |
51 |
48 |
50.5 |
47.5 |
47 |
49.5 |
46 |
49 |
51 |
49.5 |
54 |
53.5 |
|
Greens voters |
6 |
5.5 |
6.5 |
7 |
5.5 |
6.5 |
7 |
6.5 |
9 |
6 |
6 |
5.5 |
5.5 |
|
Ind./Other voters |
7.5 |
5.5 |
8.5 |
7 |
6.5 |
6 |
7 |
6.5 |
7.5 |
7 |
5 |
4.5 |
5.5 |
|
Total |
100* |
100* |
100* |
100* |
100* |
100* |
100* |
100* |
100* |
100* |
100* |
100* |
100* |
|
Did not name a party |
3 |
5 |
4.5 |
4.5 |
5 |
4 |
4.5 |
5 |
5.5 |
4 |
5 |
4.5 |
4.5 |
* This figure does not include electors who did not name a party.
Strong L-NP voters: - said Australia is “heading in the right direction”; and
- would vote L-NP if an election were held today.
Soft L-NP voters: - said Australia is “heading in the wrong direction”; and
- would vote L-NP if an election were held today.
Soft ALP voters: - said Australia is “heading in the right direction”; and
- would vote Labor if an election were held today.
Strong ALP voters: - said Australia is “heading in the wrong direction”; and
- would vote Labor if an election were held today.
THINK WILL WIN
Respondents were asked: "Regardless of who you'd like to win, who to you THINK will win the next Federal election - the Liberal-National Coalition or the Labor Party?"
|
Think Will Win |
L-NP |
ALP |
Can't Say |
|
|
% |
% |
% |
|
October 30/31 & November 6/7, 2004 |
56 |
28 |
16 |
|
November 13/14 & 20/21, 2004 |
55.5 |
30 |
14.5 |
|
November 27/28 & December 4/5, 2004 |
63.5 |
23 |
13.5 |
|
December 11/12 & 18/19, 2004 |
64 |
23.5 |
12.5 |
|
January 8/9 & 15/16, 2005 |
69.5 |
19.5 |
11 |
|
January 22/23 & 29/30, 2005 |
67 |
21.5 |
11.5 |
|
February 5/6 & 12/13, 2005 |
67 |
21.5 |
11.5 |
|
February 19/20 & 26/27, 2005 |
63.5 |
23.5 |
13 |
|
March 5/6, 2005 |
57 |
31 |
12 |
|
March 12/13, 2005 |
60 |
27.5 |
12.5 |
|
March 19/20 & 26/27, 2005 |
57.5 |
28 |
14.5 |
|
April 2/3 & 9/10, 2005 |
57.5 |
28 |
14.5 |
|
April 16/17 & 23/24, 2005 |
55 |
31.5 |
13.5 |
|
April 30/May 1 & May 7/8, 2005 |
59 |
29 |
12 |
|
May 14/15, 2005 |
63.5 |
23.5 |
13 |
|
May 21/22 & 28/29, 2005 |
59.5 |
27 |
13.5 |
|
June 4/5 & 11/12, 2005 |
61 |
27 |
12 |
|
June 18/19 & 25/26, 2005 |
59.5 |
27 |
13.5 |
|
July 2/3 & 9/10, 2005 |
60 |
27 |
13 |
|
July 16/17 & 23/24, 2005 |
61.5 |
26 |
12.5 |
|
July 30/31 & August 6/7, 2005 |
61.5 |
24.5 |
14 |
|
August 13/14 & 20/21, 2005 |
61 |
24.5 |
14.5 |
|
August 27/28 & September 3/4, 2005 |
64 |
23.5 |
12.5 |
|
September 10/11, 2005 |
60.5 |
27 |
12.5 |
|
September 17/18, 2005 |
66 |
21.5 |
12.5 |
|
September 24/25 & October 1/2, 2005 |
65 |
24 |
11 |
|
October 8/9 & 15/16, 2005 |
65 |
23.5 |
11.5 |
|
October 22/23 & 29/30, 2005 |
60 |
26.5 |
13.5 |
|
November 5/6, 2005 |
55 |
32.5 |
12.5 |
|
November 12/13, 2005 |
61 |
27.5 |
11.5 |
|
November 19/20 & 26/27, 2005 |
50 |
36.5 |
13.5 |
|
December 3/4 & 10/11, 2005 |
54.5 |
33 |
12.5 |
|
December 17/18, 2005 |
58 |
28 |
14 |
|
January 7/8 & 14/15, 2006 |
59 |
27 |
14 |
|
January 21/22 & 24/25, 2006 |
65 |
25 |
10 |
|
February 4/5, 2006 |
62 |
27 |
11 |
|
February 11/12 & 18/19, 2006 |
60 |
27 |
13 |
|
February 25/26 & March 4/5 2006 |
66 |
23 |
11 |
|
March11/12 & 18/19, 2006 |
69 |
20.5 |
10.5 |
|
March 25/26 & April 1/2, 2006 |
64.5 |
25 |
10.5 |
|
April 8/9 & April 15/16, 2006 |
62 |
26.5 |
11.5 |
|
April 22/23 & 29/30, 2006 |
63.5 |
24.5 |
12 |
|
May 6/7, 2006 |
60.5 |
28 |
11.5 |
|
May 13/14, 2006 |
70 |
20 |
10 |
|
May 20/21 & 27/28, 2006 |
64.5 |
22 |
13.5 |
|
June 3/4 & 10/11, 2006 |
61.5 |
26.5 |
12 |
|
June 17/18 & 24/25, 2006 |
58.5 |
28.5 |
13 |
|
July 1/2 & 8/9, 2006 |
56.5 |
30 |
13.5 |
|
July 15/16, 2006 |
61 |
28 |
11 |
|
July 22/23 & 29/30, 2006 |
59.5 |
29 |
11.5 |
|
August 5/6 & 12/13, 2006 |
58.5 |
28 |
13.5 |
|
August 19/20 & 26/27, 2006 |
59.5 |
28.5 |
12 |
|
September 2/3 & 9/10, 2006 |
58 |
30 |
12 |
|
September 16/17 & 23/24, 2006 |
59.5 |
27.5 |
13 |
|
September 30/October 1 & 7/8, 2006 |
58.5 |
28 |
13.5 |
|
October 14/15 & 21/22, 2006 |
58.5 |
28.5 |
13 |
|
October 28/29 & November 4/5, 2006 |
59.5 |
28.5 |
12 |
|
November 11/12 & 18/19, 2006 |
58 |
29.5 |
12.5 |
|
November 25/26 & December 2/3, 2006 |
58 |
28.5 |
13.5 |
|
December 9/10, 2006 |
46 |
39.5 |
14.5 |
|
December 16/17, 2006 |
45.5 |
41 |
13.5 |
|
January 6/7 & 13/14, 2007 |
48 |
38.5 |
13.5 |
|
January 20/21 & 27/28, 2007 |
47.5 |
38.5 |
14 |
| February 3/4, 2007 |
43 |
44 |
13 |
| February 10/11 & 17/18, 2007 |
40 |
45.5 |
14.5 |
| February 23/24, 2007 |
31.5 |
52.5 |
16 |
| March 3/4, 2007 |
39.5 |
47.5 |
13 |
| March 10/11, 2007 |
36 |
50 |
14 |
| March 17/18, 2007 |
30.5 |
54.5 |
15 |
| March 24/25 & March 31/April 1, 2007 |
31 |
56.5 |
12.5 |
| April 7/8 & 14/15, 2007 |
31.5 |
55 |
13.5 |
| April 21/22 & 28/29, 2007 |
29.5 |
55.5 |
15 |
| May 5/6, 2007 |
33 |
55 |
12 |
| May 12/13, 2007 |
38 |
49 |
13 |
| May 19/20, 2007 |
32 |
55 |
13 |
| May 26/27, 2007 |
33 |
55 |
12 |
| June 2/3, 2007 |
28.5 |
59 |
12.5 |
| June 9/10 & 16/17, 2007 |
35.5 |
50 |
14.5 |
| June 23/24 & June 30/July 1, 2007 |
37 |
50 |
13 |
| July 7/8 & 14/15, 2007 |
34.5 |
52 |
13.5 |
| July 21/22 & 28/29, 2007 |
28 |
58 |
14 |
| August 4/5 & 11/12, 2007 |
28 |
60 |
12 |
| August 18/19 & 25/26, 2007 |
31.5 |
55 |
13.5 |
| September 1/2 , 2007 |
26.5 |
60.5 |
13 |
| September 8/9, 2007 |
24.5 |
66 |
9.5 |
| September 15/16, 2007 |
26 |
63 |
11 |
| September 22/23, 2007 |
30.5 |
56.5 |
13 |
|
September 29/30, 2007 |
27 |
61 |
12 |
FEDERAL VOTING INTENTION SUMMARY - HOUSE OF REPS (%)
| PRIMARY VOTE |
L-NP |
ALP |
Aust.
Dem.# |
The
Greens |
Family
First# |
One
Nation# |
Ind./
Others |
| |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
| Election March 2, 1996 |
47.3 (8.6) |
38.8 |
6.8 |
1.7 |
* |
N/A |
5.4 |
| Election October 3, 1998 1 |
39.5 (5.3) |
40.1 |
5.1 |
2.1 |
* |
8.5 |
4.7 |
| Election November 10, 2001 |
43 (5.6) |
37.8 |
5.4 |
4.4 |
* |
4.3 |
5.1 |
| Election October 9, 2004 |
46.4 (5.9) |
37.6 |
1.2 |
7.2 |
2 |
1.2 |
4.4 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| MORGAN POLL |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Oct 30/31 & Nov 6/7, 2004 |
44.5 (2.5) |
39.5 |
2 |
8.5 |
2 |
1 |
2.5 |
| Nov 13/14 & 20/21, 2004 |
44 (3) |
39 |
2 |
8.5 |
1.5 |
1 |
4 |
| Nov 27/28 & Dec 4/5, 2004 |
46.5 (2.5) |
36 |
1.5 |
9 |
2.5 |
1 |
3.5 |
| Dec 11/12 & 18/19, 2004 |
45.5 (3) |
36.5 |
1.5 |
9.5 |
2 |
1.5 |
3.5 |
| Jan 8/9 & 15/16, 2005 |
47 (3.5) |
37 |
1.5 |
7.5 |
2 |
1 |
4 |
| Jan 22/23 & 29/30, 2005 |
45 (2.5) |
38 |
2 |
8 |
2 |
1.5 |
3.5 |
| Feb 5/6 & 12/13, 2005 |
45 (2.5) |
37.5 |
2 |
9 |
2 |
1 |
3.5 |
| Feb 19/20 & 26/27, 2005 |
46 (2.5) |
38.5 |
2 |
7.5 |
1 |
0.5 |
4.5 |
| Mar 5/6, 2005 |
42 (2.5) |
43 |
1.5 |
7 |
2.5 |
1 |
3 |
| Mar 12/13, 2005 |
44.5 (2.5) |
37 |
1 |
10 |
2.5 |
1 |
4 |
| Mar 19/20 & 26/27, 2005 |
44 (2.5) |
39 |
1.5 |
8 |
2 |
1 |
4.5 |
| Apr 2/3 & 9/10, 2005 |
40.5 (1.5) |
43 |
1.5 |
8 |
2 |
1.5 |
3.5 |
| April 16/17 & 23/24, 2005 |
42 (2) |
40 |
2 |
8.5 |
1.5 |
1 |
5 |
| April 30/May 1 & May 7/8, 2005 |
42(2.5) |
42.5 |
1.5 |
8 |
1.5 |
1 |
3.5 |
| May 14/15, 2005 |
43(1.5) |
41 |
1.5 |
8 |
2 |
0.5 |
4 |
| May 21/22 & 28/29, 2005 |
45 (2) |
39 |
1.5 |
7.5 |
1.5 |
0.5 |
5 |
| June 4/5 & 11/12, 2005 |
43.5 (1.5) |
39.5 |
1.5 |
7.5 |
2 |
1.5 |
4.5 |
| June 18/19 & 25/26, 2005 |
42 (2.5) |
39.5 |
2 |
9 |
2.5 |
1 |
4 |
| July 2/3 & 9/10, 2005 |
42.5 (2) |
40.5 |
1.5 |
7.5 |
2.5 |
1 |
4.5 |
| July 16/17 & 23/24, 2005 |
41.5 (2.5) |
38.5 |
2.5 |
8 |
1.5 |
2 |
6 |
| July 30/31 & August 6/7, 2005 |
41.5 (4) |
42 |
2 |
7.5 |
2 |
1 |
4 |
| August 13/14 & 20/21, 2005 |
39 (2.5) |
41.5 |
2 |
8 |
3 |
1.5 |
5 |
| August 27/28 & September 3/4 |
44 (3.5) |
37 |
1.5 |
8.5 |
3 |
1 |
5 |
| September 10/11, 2005 |
39.5 (3) |
41.5 |
1.5 |
7 |
3 |
0.5 |
7 |
| September 17/18, 2005 |
44 (2.5) |
34.5 |
2.5 |
10 |
2 |
1.5 |
5.5 |
| September 24/25 & October 1/2, 2005 |
42 (3.5) |
38.5 |
2.5 |
9 |
2 |
1.5 |
4.5 |
| October 8/9 & 15/16, 2005 |
39.5 (2.5) |
41.5 |
2 |
9 |
2 |
1.5 |
4.5 |
| October 22/23 & 29/30, 2005 |
39 (3.5) |
41 |
2.5 |
9.5 |
2 |
1 |
5 |
| November 5/6, 2005 |
38.5 (3) |
43 |
1.5 |
9.5 |
2 |
1 |
4.5 |
| November 12/13, 2005 |
43.5 (3) |
38 |
1.5 |
9 |
2 |
- |
6 |
| November 19/20 & 26/27, 2005 |
35.5 (2.5) |
45.5 |
2 |
9 |
2 |
1.5 |
4.5 |
| December 3/4 & 10/11, 2005 |
38.5 (2.5) |
42 |
2 |
10 |
2.5 |
1 |
4 |
| December 17/18, 2005 |
39.5 (4) |
39.5 |
1.5 |
10.5 |
3 |
1.5 |
4.5 |
| January 7/8 & 14/15, 2006 |
39 (3.5) |
43 |
2 |
8 |
3 |
1 |
4 |
| January 21/22 & 24/25, 2006 |
42 (2.5) |
38 |
2 |
8.5 |
2.5 |
1 |
6 |
| February 4/5, 2006 |
40.5 (3.5) |
42 |
1.5 |
8 |
2 |
1 |
5 |
| February 11/12 & 18/19, 2006 |
40 (3) |
40.5 |
2.5 |
8 |
2 |
1 |
6 |
| February 25/26 & March 4/5 2006 |
43 (3.5) |
39.5 |
1.5 |
8 |
2 |
1 |
5 |
| March 11/12 & 18/19, 2006 |
44 (3.5) |
38.5 |
1.5 |
8.5 |
2.5 |
1 |
4 |
| March 25/26 & April 1/2, 2006 |
39 (2) |
43.5 |
1.5 |
8 |
2 |
1 |
5 |
| April 8/9 & April 15/16 , 2006 |
38.5 (2) |
42 |
1.5 |
9.5 |
2.5 |
0.5 |
5.5 |
| April 22/21 & 29/30, 2006 |
40 (3) |
39 |
2.5 |
8.5 |
2.5 |
1 |
6.5 |
| May 6/7, 2006 |
39 (2) |
42 |
2.5 |
9.5 |
1.5 |
1 |
4.5 |
| May 13/14, 2006 |
42 (2.5) |
40.5 |
2.5 |
7 |
1.5 |
0.5 |
6 |
| May 20/21 & 27/28, 2006 |
42 (3.5) |
41 |
1.5 |
7.5 |
3 |
1 |
4 |
| June 3/4 & 10/11, 2006 |
39.5 (2.5) |
42 |
2 |
8 |
2.5 |
1.5 |
4.5 |
| June 17/18 & 24/25, 2006 |
42 (3) |
40.5 |
1.5 |
8.5 |
1.5 |
0.5 |
5.5 |
| July 1/2 & 8/9, 2006 |
39 (3) |
42.5 |
2.5 |
8.5 |
2.5 |
1 |
4 |
| July 15/16, 2006 |
45 (2.5) |
36.5 |
1.5 |
7.5 |
2.5 |
1.5 |
5.5 |
| July 22/23 & 29/30, 2006 |
40 (2.5) |
42 |
2 |
8 |
2.5 |
1 |
4.5 |
| August 5/6 & 12/13, 2006 |
40.5 (3.5) |
41.5 |
2 |
8.5 |
3 |
1 |
3.5 |
| August 19/20 & 26/27, 2006 |
39 (2) |
42.5 |
2.5 |
8 |
2.5 |
0.5 |
5 |
| September 2/3 & 9/10, 2006 |
38 (2.5) |
43 |
2.5 |
9 |
2 |
0.5 |
5 |
| September 16/17 & 23/24, 2006 |
41.5 (3) |
41.5 |
2.5 |
8 |
1 |
1 |
4.5 |
| September 30/October 1 & 7/8, 2006 |
39 (3) |
42 |
2 |
9.5 |
2 |
1 |
4.5 |
| October 14/15 & 21/22, 2006 |
40.5 (3.5) |
41.5 |
2 |
8.5 |
2 |
0.5 |
5 |
| October 28/29 & November 4/5, 2006 |
41.5 (3.5) |
40.5 |
1.5 |
9 |
2 |
1 |
4.5 |
| November 11/12 & 18/19, 2006 |
40.5 (2.5) |
40.5 |
2.5 |
10 |
2 |
1 |
3.5 |
| November 25/26 & December 2/3, 2006 |
41.5 (3) |
41 |
1.5 |
9 |
1.5 |
1 |
4.5 |
| December 9/10, 2006 |
34.5 (3) |
50 |
1.5 |
7 |
2.5 |
1 |
3.5 |
| December 16/17, 2006 |
35.5 (3.5) |
49 |
2.5 |
7 |
2 |
1 |
3 |
| January 6/7 & 13/14, 2007 |
36.5 (3) |
47 |
1.5 |
8 |
2 |
1.5 |
3.5 |
| January 20/21 & 27/28, 2007 |
39 (2.5) |
43.5 |
1.5 |
7.5 |
2.5 |
1.5 |
4.5 |
| February 3/4, 2007 |
37 (2.5) |
47 |
2 |
8 |
1.5 |
0.5 |
4 |
| February 10/11 & 17/18, 2007 |
38 (2.5) |
48 |
1.5 |
7 |
1.5 |
0.5 |
3.5 |
| February 24/25, 2007 |
34 (3.5) |
52.5 |
0.5 |
7.5 |
1.5 |
1 |
3 |
| March 3/4, 2007 |
33 (3.5) |
51.5 |
2 |
7 |
1.5 |
1 |
4 |
| March 10/11, 2007 |
34 (3) |
51.5 |
1.5 |
7.5 |
2 |
1 |
2.5 |
| March 17/18, 2007 |
36 (2.5) |
48.5 |
1 |
8 |
2.5 |
1 |
3 |
| March 24/25 & March 31/April 1, 2007 |
34.5 (3) |
49.5 |
1.5 |
9 |
1.5 |
0.5 |
3.5 |
| April 7/8 & 14/15, 2007 |
35.5 (3.5) |
50 |
1 |
7.5 |
1.5 |
0.5 |
4 |
| April 21/22 & 28/29, 2007 |
34.5 (3.5) |
52.5 |
1.5 |
6.5 |
1.5 |
0.5 |
3 |
| May 5/6, 2007 |
35.5 (2) |
51.5 |
1 |
7 |
1.5 |
0.5 |
3 |
| May 12/13, 2007 |
36 (2) |
51 |
1 |
8 |
1.5 |
0.5 |
2 |
| May 19/20, 2007 |
35.5 (2) |
51 |
1 |
8 |
1.5 |
1 |
2 |
| May 26/27, 2007 |
37.5 (2) |
49 |
1 |
6 |
2 |
1.5 |
3 |
| June 2/3, 2007 |
38 (2.5) |
51 |
0.5 |
5.5 |
1.5 |
1 |
2.5 |
| June 9/10 & 16/17, 2007 |
37 (2.5) |
48 |
1.5 |
6.5 |
2 |
1 |
4 |
| June 23/24 & June 30/July 1, 2007 |
36 (2.5) |
50.5 |
0.5 |
7 |
1.5 |
1 |
3.5 |
| July 7/8 & 14/15, 2007 |
40.5 (2.5) |
47.5 |
1.5 |
5.5 |
2 |
^ |
3 |
| July 21/22 & 28/29, 2007 |
40.5 (2.5) |
47 |
1 |
6.5 |
1.5 |
0.5 |
3 |
| August 4/5 & 11/12, 2007 |
36.5 (3) |
49.5 |
1.5 |
7 |
2 |
1 |
2.5 |
| August 18/19 & 25/26, 2007 |
41 (2.5) |
46 |
1 |
6.5 |
1.5 |
1 |
3 |
|
September 1/2, 2007 |
34.5(1.5) |
49 |
2 |
9 |
2 |
0.5 |
3 |
|
September 8/9, 2007 |
36 (2) |
51 |
1 |
6 |
2 |
0.5 |
3.5 |
|
September 15/16, 2007 |
39.5 (3) |
49.5 |
0.5 |
6 |
1.5 |
1 |
2 |
|
September 22/23, 2007 |
36 (2.5) |
54 |
0.5 |
5.5 |
1 |
0.5 |
2.5 |
|
September 29/30, 2007 |
35.5 (2) |
53.5 |
1.5 |
5.5 |
1.5 |
0.5 |
2 |
|
Note: National Party results are in brackets
# Sample Sizes under 50 should be treated with caution
^ Less than 0.5%
*The Family First Party were included as an option on Federal Voting Intention from October 30, 2004
1 October 3, 1998 Federal election results have been updated to include results from the electorate of Newcastle supplementary election. The L-NP did not have a candidate contesting the electorate of Newcastle. |
TWO-PARTY PREFERRED VOTE (%)
| |
L-NP |
ALP |
|
|
| |
% |
% |
|
|
|
Election March 2, 1996 |
53.6 |
46.4 |
|
|
|
Election October 3, 1998 |
49 |
51 |
|
|
| Election November 10, 2001 |
51 |
49 |
|
|
| Election October 9, 2004 |
52.7 |
47.3 |
|
|
| |
|
|
|
|
|
MORGAN POLL |
Preferences distributed
by how electors
say they will vote |
Preferences distributed
by how electors voted
at the 2004 election |
| |
% |
% |
% |
% |
| Oct 30/31 & Nov 6/7, 2004 |
50.5 |
49.5 |
50.5 |
49.5 |
| Nov 13/14 & 20/21, 2004 |
50 |
50 |
50.5 |
49.5 |
| Nov 27/28 & Dec 4/5, 2004 |
52.5 |
47.5 |
53 |
47 |
| Dec 11/12 & 18/19, 2004 |
51 |
49 |
52.5 |
47.5 |
| Jan 8/9 & 15/16, 2005 |
53.5 |
46.5 |
53 |
47 |
| Jan 22/23 & 29/30, 2005 |
51.5 |
48.5 |
51.5 |
48.5 |
| Feb 5/6 & 12/13, 2005 |
51.5 |
48.5 |
52 |
48 |
| Feb 19/20 & 26/27, 2005 |
52 |
48 |
52 |
48 |
| Mar 5/6, 2005 |
47.5 |
52.5 |
48 |
52 |
| Mar 12/13, 2005 |
51.5 |
48.5 |
52 |
48 |
| Mar 19/20 & 26/27, 2005 |
50.5 |
49.5 |
50.5 |
49.5 |
| April 2/3 & 9/10, 2005 |
46 |
54 |
47 |
53 |
| April 16/17 & 23/24, 2005 |
48 |
52 |
49 |
51 |
| April 30/May 1 & May 7/8, 2005 |
47.5 |
52.5 |
48 |
52 |
| May 14/15, 2005 |
47.5 |
52.5 |
49.5 |
50.5 |
| May 21/22 & 28/29, 2005 |
51 |
49 |
51.5 |
48.5 |
| June 4/5 & 11/12, 2005 |
49.5 |
50.5 |
50 |
50 |
| June 18/19 & 25/26, 2005 |
48 |
52 |
49.5 |
50.5 |
| July 2/3 & 9/10, 2005 |
48.5 |
51.5 |
49 |
51 |
| July 16/17 & 23/24, 2005 |
48.5 |
51.5 |
49.5 |
50.5 |
| July 30/31 & August 6/7, 2005 |
47 |
53 |
48 |
52 |
| August 13/14 & 20/21, 2005 |
46.5 |
53.5 |
46.5 |
53.5 |
| August 27/28 & September 3/4, 2005 |
51 |
49 |
51.5 |
48.5 |
| September 10/11, 2005 |
46.5 |
53.5 |
47 |
53 |
| September 17/18, 2005 |
52 |
48 |
52.5 |
47.5 |
| September 24/25 & October 1/2, 2005 |
48.5 |
51.5 |
49.5 |
50.5 |
| October 8/9 & 15/16, 2005 |
46.5 |
53.5 |
47 |
53 |
| October 22/23 & 29/30, 2005 |
45.5 |
54.5 |
47 |
53 |
| November 5/6, 2005 |
43.5 |
56.5 |
46 |
54 |
| November 12/13, 2005 |
50 |
50 |
51 |
49 |
| November 19/20 & 26/27, 2005 |
41.5 |
58.5 |
43 |
57 |
| December 3/4 & 10/11, 2005 |
45 |
55 |
46 |
54 |
| December 17/18, 2005 |
48 |
52 |
48 |
52 |
| January 7/8 & 14/15, 2006 |
45 |
55 |
46 |
54 |
| January 21/22 & 24/25, 2006 |
51 |
49 |
50 |
50 |
| February 4/5, 2006 |
45.5 |
54.5 |
47.5 |
52.5 |
| February 11/12 & 18/19, 2006 |
47.5 |
52.5 |
47.5 |
52.5 |
| February 25/26 & March 4/5 2006 |
48.5 |
51.5 |
50 |
50 |
| March 11/12 & 18/19, 2006 |
50.5 |
49.5 |
51 |
49 |
| March 25/26 & April 1/2, 2006 |
46 |
54 |
46 |
54 |
| April 8/9 & April 15/16 , 2006 |
46 |
54 |
46 |
54 |
| April 22/23 & 29/30, 2006 |
48.5 |
51.5 |
48.5 |
51.5 |
| May 6/7, 2006 |
44.5 |
55.5 |
46.5 |
53.5 |
| May 13/14, 2006 |
50 |
50 |
49 |
51 |
| May 20/21 & 27/28, 2006 |
49 |
51 |
48.5 |
51.5 |
| June 3/4 & 10/11, 2006 |
46 |
54 |
47 |
53 |
| June 17/18 & 24/25, 2006 |
49 |
51 |
49 |
51 |
| July 1/2 & 8/9, 2006 |
44.5 |
55.5 |
46.5 |
53.5 |
| July 15/16, 2006 |
50.5 |
49.5 |
52 |
48 |
| July 22/23 & 29/30, 2006 |
46.5 |
53.5 |
46.5 |
53.5 |
| August 5/6 & 12/13, 2006 |
46 |
54 |
47 |
53 |
| August 19/20 & 26/27, 2006 |
45.5 |
54.5 |
46 |
54 |
| September 2/3 & 9/10, 2006 |
45.5 |
54.5 |
45 |
55 |
| September 16/17 & 23/24, 2006 |
47.5 |
52.5 |
47 |
53 |
| September 30/October 1 & 7/8, 2006 |
45 |
55 |
45.5 |
54.5 |
| October 14/15 & 21/22, 2006 |
47 |
53 |
47 |
53 |
| October 28/29 & November 4/5, 2006 |
48 |
52 |
47.5 |
52.5 |
| November 11/12 & 18/19, 2006 |
46.5 |
53.5 |
47 |
53 |
| November 25/26 & December 2/3, 2006 |
47.5 |
52.5 |
47.5 |
52.5 |
| December 9/10, 2006 |
40 |
60 |
41 |
59 |
| December 16/17, 2006 |
41.5 |
58.5 |
41 |
59 |
| January 6/7 & 13/14, 2007 |
42.5 |
57.5 |
42.5 |
57.5 |
| January 20/21 & 27/28, 2007 |
45.5 |
54.5 |
45.5 |
54.5 |
| February 3/4, 2007 |
43 |
57 |
42.5 |
57.5 |
| February 10/11 & 17/18, 2007 |
43 |
57 |
43 |
57 |
| February 24/25, 2007 |
38.5 |
61.5 |
38.5 |
61.5 |
| March 3/4, 2007 |
39.5 |
60.5 |
38.5 |
61.5 |
| March 10/11, 2007 |
38 |
62 |
39 |
61 |
| March 17/18, 2007 |
41.5 |
58.5 |
41.5 |
58.5 |
| March 24/25 & March 31/April 1, 2007 |
40.5 |
59.5 |
40 |
60 |
| April 7/8 & 14/15, 2007 |
40 |
60 |
40.5 |
59.5 |
| April 21/22 & 28/29, 2007 |
39 |
61 |
39 |
61 |
| May 5/6, 2007 |
40 |
60 |
40 |
60 |
| May 12/13, 2007 |
40.5 |
59.5 |
40.5 |
59.5 |
| May 19/20, 2007 |
39.5 |
60.5 |
40 |
60 |
| May 26/27, 2007 |
43 |
57 |
42.5 |
57.5 |
| June 2/3, 2007 |
42 |
58 |
42 |
58 |
| June 9/10 & 16/17, 2007 |
41.5 |
58.5 |
42.5 |
57.5 |
| June 23/24 & June 30/July 1, 2007 |
41 |
59 |
41 |
59 |
| July 7/8 & 14/15, 2007 |
45 |
55 |
45 |
55 |
| July 21/22 & 28/29, 2007 |
45.5 |
54.5 |
45 |
55 |
| August 4/5 & 11/12, 2007 |
41.5 |
58.5 |
41.5 |
58.5 |
| August 18/19 & 25/26, 2007 |
46 |
54 |
45.5 |
54.5 |
| September 1/2, 2007 |
39.5 |
60.5 |
40 |
60 |
| September 8/9, 2007 |
40.5 |
59.5 |
41 |
59 |
| September 15/16, 2007 |
43.5 |
56.5 |
43.5 |
56.5 |
| September 22/23, 2007 |
39 |
61 |
39.5 |
60.5 |
| September 29/30, 2007 |
39 |
61 |
39 |
61 |
TWO-PARTY PREFERENCES OF MINOR PARTIES (%)
| |
September 8/9 |
September 15/16 |
September 22/23 |
September 29/30 |
| MORGAN POLL |
L-NP |
ALP |
L-NP |
ALP |
L-NP |
ALP |
L-NP |
ALP |
| |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
| Australian Democrats# |
37.5 |
62.5 |
57.5 |
42.5 |
34.5 |
65.5 |
7.5 |
92.5 |
|
The Greens# |
18.5 |
81.5 |
15.5 |
84.5 |
9.5 |
90.5 |
23 |
77 |
|
Family First# |
70 |
30 |
53.5 |
46.5 |
68.5 |
31.5 |
55 |
45 |
|
One Nation# |
42 |
58 |
66 |
34 |
76 |
24 |
17.5 |
82.5 |
|
Independent/Other # |
54.5 |
45.5 |
71.5 |
28.5 |
39.5 |
60.5 |
46 |
54 |
# Sample Sizes under 50 should be treated with caution
Margin of Error
The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. The following table gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. The figures are approximate and for general guidance only, and assume a simple random sample. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.
|
Sample Size |
Percentage Estimate |
| |
40%-60% |
25% or 75% |
10% or 90% |
5% or 95% |
|
1,000 |
±3.2 |
±2.7 |
±1.9 |
±1.4 |
|
1,500 |
±2.6 |
±2.2 |
±1.5 |
±1.1 |
|
2,000 |
±2.2 |
±1.9 |
±1.3 |
±1 |
The “face-to-face” Morgan Poll is the only Australian public opinion poll conducted every week.
The Morgan Poll accurately predicted that the ALP would win the 2006 Queensland election with a reduced majority (sample 604 electors).
The Morgan Poll accurately predicted that the ALP would win the 2006 Victorian election with a reduced majority (sample 956 electors). The Morgan Poll was also the most accurate on the primary vote of the major parties for the Victorian election.
Note: The recent discussion on Possum Pollytics regarding Morgan and Newspoll is well worth reading.
The following included comment says it all: “I find it interesting that for the only poll in the last five years for which there is any ‘real’ figure with which to compare, i.e. the polls immediately before the 2004 election, Morgan (45.5%) was closer to the actual Coalition Primary (46.7%) than Newspoll (45%) or Nielsen (49%), and Morgan (38.5%) was also closer to the ALP actual primary (37.6%) than Newspoll (39%), and only marginally further away than Nielsen (37%). Since we have no idea of how far away the ongoing polls are from ‘reality’ (whatever that means), surely we should just go with what we know, that in the most recent testable case, Morgan was better at forecasting the actual primary vote than Newspoll. On what possible basis should we decide that the Newspoll or Nielsen primary vote estimate is ‘better’ than Morgan’s.”
View Federal Voting Intention Trend
The Morgan Poll is conducted by the ONLY Australian and New Zealand member of the Gallup International.
No other public opinion poll taken in Australia or New Zealand has this qualification.
Finding No. 4219 is taken from Computer Report No. 2218
|
