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National (47.5%) Has Huge Lead Over Labour (30.5%) Biggest Since July 2012 & Would Win Election

This latest New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll on voting intention was conducted by telephone with a NZ wide cross-section of 1,052 electors from February 11 – 24, 2013. Of all electors surveyed 4% (up 0.5%) didn’t name a party.

Today’s New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll shows a large gain in support for Prime Minister John Key’s National Party to 47.5% (up 3.5% since early February and the highest since July 9-22, 2012). Support for Key’s Coalition partners shows the Maori Party 2.5% (up 2%), ACT NZ 0.5% (unchanged) and United Future 0.5% (up 0.5%).

Support for Labour is 30.5% (down 4%); Greens are 12.5% (down 1%), New Zealand First 3% (down 1%), Mana Party 0.5% (unchanged), Conservative Party of NZ 2% (unchanged) and Others 0.5% (unchanged).

If a National Election were held today this New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll shows that the National Party with some minor Party support would win the Election.

The latest New Zealand Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating is down 3pts to 121.5 with 54% (down 1%) of New Zealanders saying New Zealand is ‘heading in the right direction’ compared to 32.5% (up 2%) that say New Zealand is ‘heading in the wrong direction’.

Gary Morgan says:

“Today’s New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll shows a surge in support for Prime Minister John Key’s National (47.5%, up 3.5%) now with its biggest lead over the main Opposition Labour Party (30.5%, down 4%) since July 2012. Support for third party the Greens has also dropped to 12.5% (down 1%).

“Today’s result was surveyed prior to Opposition Leader David Shearer’s cabinet reshuffle and suggests the changes were badly needed by an Opposition Party that is yet to make a serious dent in the strong lead held by Prime Minister Key’s National since the 2008 New Zealand Election, now over 4 years ago. Although the next NZ Election is still over 18 months ago, Labour must significantly improve its position if it is to have a real chance of regaining power in late 2014.”

Electors were asked: “If a New Zealand Election were held today which party would receive your party vote?”

This latest New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll on voting intention was conducted by telephone with a NZ wide cross-section of 1,052 electors from February 11 — 24, 2013. Of all electors surveyed 4% (up 0.5%) didn’t name a party.

 

VOTING INTENTION SUMMARY

The following table compares the latest NZ Morgan Polls on Voting Intention with the result from the November 26, 2011 General Election:

PRIMARY VOTE

National

Labour

Green

Party

NZ

First

Maori

Party*

Mana

Party

ACT

NZ

United

Future

Conservative

Party

Other

 

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

General Election, July 27, 2002
20.9 41.3 7 10.4 n/a n/a 7.1 6.7 n/a 6.6
General Election, September 17, 2005
39.1 41.1 5.3 5.72 2.12 n/a 1.51 2.67 n/a 2.48
General Election, November 8, 2008
44.93 33.99 6.72 4.07 2.39 n/a 3.65 0.87 n/a 3.38
General Election, November 26, 2011
47.31 27.48 11.06 6.59 1.43 1.08 1.07 0.60 2.65 0.73

MORGAN POLL

                   
January 3-15, 2012
47 27.5 14.5 5 1.5 1 0.5 0.5 n/a 2.5
January 16-29, 2012
46 30.5 13 5.5 2 0.5 0.5 0.5 n/a 1.5
January 30 - February 12, 2012
45.5 31 11.5 6 1.5 1 1 0.5 n/a 2
February 13-26, 2012
45.5 31.5 13 5 1.5 1 0.5 0.5 n/a 1.5
February 27 - March 11, 2012
48.5 30 12.5 5 1 0.5 0.5 0.5 n/a 1.5
March 12 - April 1, 2012
44 30.5 17 5 1.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 n/a 0.5
April 2-15, 2012
49.5 26.5 12.5 6.5 1.5 1 ^ 1 n/a 1.5
April 16-29, 2012
47 28.5 15 5 1.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 n/a 1.5
April 30 - May 13, 2012
44.5 30 15 5.5 1 0.5 ^ 1 n/a 2.5
May 14-27, 2012
44 30.5 13.5 5 2 1 1 0.5 n/a 2.5
May 28 - June 7, 2012
46 31 12.5 5.5 1.5 1 ^ 0.5 n/a 2
June 8-24, 2012
47.5 32 12 4 1.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 n/a 1.5
June 25-July 8, 2012
45.5 32.5 13 4.5 1 0.5 0.5 0.5 n/a 2
July 9-22, 2012
47.5 30 11 5.5 1 0.5 1 0.5 3 ^
July 23-August 5, 2012
44 32 14 4 2 1 0.5 0.5 1.5 0.5
August 13-26, 2012
44.5 32 14.5 5 2.5 ^ 1 ^ 0.5 ^
August 27-September 9, 2012
46.5 31 12.5 4.5 2.5 1 0.5 ^ 1 0.5
September 10-23, 2012
43.5 33 11.5 5 2.5 1.5 0.5 ^ 2 0.5
September 24 - October 7, 2012
41.5 33.5 13.5 6.5 1.5 ^ 0.5 0.5 2 0.5
October 8-21, 2012
43.5 29 13 7.5 3.5 0.5 0.5 ^ 2 0.5
October 29 - Novenber 11, 2012
45.5 32.5 10.5 5 2 1 0.5 0.5 1.5 1
November 12-25, 2012
45 31.5 13.5 6.5 1 ^ 0.5 0.5 1.5 ^
November 26 - December 9, 2012
45.5 33.5 11 5 1.5 1 1 ^ 1 0.5
January 2-13, 2013
46 31.5 12 5 2 0.5 0.5 0.5 1.5 0.5
January 14-27, 2013
46 31.5 13.5 5.5 1.5 0.5 0.5 ^ 0.5 0.5
January 28 - February 10, 2013
44 34.5 13.5 4 0.5 0.5 0.5 ^ 2 0.5
February 11-24, 2013
47.5 30.5 12.5 3 2.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 2 0.5

*The Maori Party was launched in July 2004; ^ Result less than 0.5%.

 New Zealand Primary Vote

VOTING INTENTION SUMMARY - National Party-led Government v Parliamentary Opposition Parties

The following table compares the latest NZ Morgan Polls on Voting Intention with the result from the November 26, 2011 General Election:

TWO-PARTY PREFERRED VOTE

National Party-led

Government*

Opposition

Parties#

 

%

%

General Election, November 8, 2008
51.84 48.16
General Election, November 26, 2011
50.41 46.21

MORGAN POLL

   
January 3-15, 2012
49.5 48
January 16-29, 2012
49 49.5
January 30 - February 12, 2012
48.5 49.5
February 13-26, 2012
48 50.5
February 27 - March 11, 2012
50.5 48
March 12 - April 1, 2012
46.5 53
April 2-15, 2012
52 46.5
April 16-29, 2012
49.5 49
April 30 - May 13, 2012
46.5 51
May 14-27, 2012
47.5 50
May 28-June 7, 2012
48 51.5
June 8-24, 2012
50 48.5
June 25-July 8, 2012
47.5 50.5
July 9-22, 2012
50 47
July 23 - August 5, 2012
47 51
August 13-26, 2012
48 51.5
August 27 - September 9, 2012
49.5 49
September 10-23, 2012
46.5 51
September 24 - October 7, 2012
44 53.5
October 8-21, 2012
47.5 50
October 29 - November 11, 2012
48.5 49
November 12-25, 2012
47 51.5
November 26 - December 9, 2012
48 50.5
January 2-13, 2013
49 49
January 14-27, 2013
48 51
January 28 - February 10, 2013
45 52.5
February 11-24, 2013
51 46.5

*National-led Government: National Party, Maori Party, ACT NZ, United Future; #Opposition Parties: Labour Party, Green Party, Mana Party, NZ First.

Other & Conservative Party not included as they are not represented in Parliament.

 

NEW ZEALAND: HEADING IN “RIGHT” OR “WRONG” DIRECTION?

Electors were asked: “Generally speaking, do you feel that things in New Zealand are heading in the right direction or would you say things are seriously heading in the wrong direction?”

New Zealand Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating (Government of John Key): Interviewing Dates

July 11-24,

2011

July 25-Aug 7,

2011

Aug 15-28,

2011

Aug 29-Sep11,

2011

Sep 12-25,

2011

Sep 26-Oct 9,

2011

Oct 10-23,

2011

Oct 24-Nov 6,

2011

Nov 7-18,

2011

Nov 22-24,

2011

Jan 3-15,

2012

Jan 16-29,

2012

% % % % % % % % % % % %

Right direction

56.5 57 59 60 61.5 62 61 58.5 60.5 49.5 60.5 61

Wrong direction

29 29 27.5 28 24.5 24.5 24.5 27.5 24 31 28 28

Roy Morgan GCR#

127.5 128 131.5 132 137 137.5 136.5 131 136.5 118.5 132.5 133

Can’t say

14.5 14 13.5 12 14 13.5 14.5 14 15.5 19.5 11.5 11

TOTAL

100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100

#Roy Morgan GCR = Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating (The Roy Morgan GCR is 100 plus the difference between the percentage of New Zealanders who say the country is
“heading in the right direction” and the percentage who say the country is “seriously heading in the wrong direction”).

New Zealand Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating (Government of John Key): Interviewing Dates

Jan 30-Feb 12,

2012

Feb 13-26,

2012

Feb 27-Mar 11,

2012

Mar 12-Apr 1,

2012

Apr 2-15,

2012

Apr 16-29,

2012

Apr 30-May 13,

2012

May 14-27,

2012

May 28-Jun 7,

2012

Jun 8-24,

2012

Jun 25-Jul 8,

2012

July 9-22,

2012

% % % % % % % % % % % %

Right direction

57 53.5 52.5 53.5 55.5 55 51 49 48 52 51.5 50

Wrong direction

30 32.5 34 29.5 31 32.5 35.5 38 37.5 34.5 34 36.5

Roy Morgan GCR#

127 121 118.5 124 124.5 122.5 115.5 111 110.5 117.5 117.5 113.5

Can’t say

13 14 13.5 17 13.5 12.5 13.5 13 14.5 13.5 14.5 13.5

TOTAL

100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100

#Roy Morgan GCR = Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating (The Roy Morgan GCR is 100 plus the difference between the percentage of New Zealanders who say the country is
“heading in the right direction” and the percentage who say the country is “seriously heading in the wrong direction”).

New Zealand Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating (Government of John Key): Interviewing Dates

July 23-Aug 5,

2012

Aug 13-26,

2012

Aug 27-Sep 9,

2012

Sep 10-23,

2012

Sep 24-Oct 7,

2012

Oct 8-21,

2012

Oct 29- Nov 11,

2012

Nov 12-25,

2012

Nov 26-Dec 9,

2012

Jan 2-13,

2013

Jan 14-27,

2013

Jan 28-Feb 10,

2013

Feb 11-24,

2013

% % % % % % % % % % % % %

Right direction

49 49.5 51 47.5 44 49 51.5 48.5 53 53.5 57 55 54

Wrong direction

34.5 34.5 34.5 37.5 38 39 34 37.5 34 33.5 30.5 30.5 32.5

Roy Morgan GCR#

114.5 115 116.5 110 106 110 117.5 111 119 120 126.5 124.5 121.5

Can’t say

16.5 16 14.5 15 18 12 14.5 14 13 13 12.5 14.5 13.5

TOTAL

100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100

#Roy Morgan GCR = Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating (The Roy Morgan GCR is 100 plus the difference between the percentage of New Zealanders who say the country is
“heading in the right direction” and the percentage who say the country is “seriously heading in the wrong direction”).

NZ Government Confidence rating

For further information:

Gary Morgan:           Office +61 3 9224 5213   Mobile +61 411 129 094

Michele Levine:        Office +61 3 9224 5215   Mobile +61 411 129 093

 

Margin of Error

The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. The following table gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. The figures are approximate and for general guidance only, and assume a simple random sample.

Sample Size

Percentage Estimate

 

40%-60%

25% or 75%

10% or 90%

5% or 95%

500

±4.5

±3.9

±2.7

±1.9

1,000

±3.2

±2.7

±1.9

±1.4