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Kevin Rudd now leads Tony Abbott as ‘Better Prime Minister’ but Malcolm Turnbull preferred to Rudd

This special telephone Morgan Poll was conducted over the last two nights of July 16/17, 2013, with an Australia-wide cross section of 549 electors.
New Prime Minister Kevin Rudd (52%) now clearly leads Opposition Leader Tony Abbott (36%, down 11% since June 11/12, 2013) as ‘Better Prime Minister’ according to a special telephone Morgan Poll conducted over the last two nights (July 16/17, 2013).

  • However, for the first time former Opposition Leader Malcolm Turnbull is clearly preferred to Kevin Rudd as Better Prime Minister: Turnbull (52%, up 28% since January 2010) cf. Rudd (38%, down 25%).
Analysis by gender shows Rudd has picked up support from both Men and Women since taking over from Gillard and is preferred by both genders. Men prefer Rudd (50%, up 19% from PM Gillard on June 11/12, 2013) cf. Abbott (37%, down 14%) and Women prefer Rudd (53%, up 15% from PM Gillard) cf. Abbott (36%, down 6%).

Job Performance – Approve/Disapprove

Australian electors are fairly evenly divided on Prime Minister Kevin Rudd’s handling of his job as Prime Minister with 45% approving compared to 40% who disapprove while 15% can’t say.

A clear majority of Australian electors (54%, up 3% in a month) disapprove of Opposition Leader Tony Abbott’s handling of the job as Opposition Leader, 38% (down 3%) approve and 8% (unchanged) can’t say.

More Men (49%) than Women (41%) approve of Prime Minister Kevin Rudd’s handling of the job than disapprove (Men: 40% and Women: 40%). Still, a clear majority of women disapprove (60%, up 6%) of Tony Abbott’s handling of the job as Opposition Leader compared to only 33% (down 6%) who approve.

Gary Morgan says:

“New Prime Minister Kevin Rudd (52%) is now clearly preferred as ‘Better Prime Minister’ to Opposition Leader Tony Abbott (36%, down 11% in a month). For the Poll ‘nerds’ this current lead is very similar to the lead he held just a month before he was replaced in June 2010 by former Prime Minister Julia Gillard. Rudd (49% in May 2010) cf. Abbott (37% in May 2010). However, former Opposition Leader Malcolm Turnbull (52%, up 28% since January 2010) is for the first time preferred to Rudd (38%, down 25%) on the same measure.

“Up until now I’ve always believed that leaders make little difference in elections, however there’s no doubt that the Labor’s Party’s switch to Kevin Rudd coupled with suggestions of a more pro-business Labor Party has significantly improved the chances of the Labor Party winning this year’s Federal Election.

“Some would argue this is what happened when Bob Hawke replaced Bill Hayden as Leader of the Labor Party in 1983. However, the mistake made by former Prime Minister Malcolm Fraser was to not debate Bob Hawke. In a similar vein, Opposition Leader Tony Abbott was poorly advised not to debate Rudd at the National Press Club last week.

“The Rudd Government’s major concern is that Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence now (114.4) is significantly lower than it was a month before the 2010 Federal Election (123.0).

“For Rudd to win the Federal Election he needs more than promises. Rudd needs to restore Australians’ confidence in the performance of the Australian economy – this week’s decision to scrap the Carbon Tax a year early is a start.

“Rudd should call the Federal Election now (for late August) if he’s not going to change anything – most likely. If Rudd wants to deliver real pro-business changes (look at the 1975 Hayden Budget), he should make the pro-business changes now and hold the Federal Election in November. For Abbott to win the Federal Election he needs to explain to the electorate what he’s actually going to do and the differences in Liberal Party policy that provide a real choice for Australians.

“Another Morgan Poll conducted in conjunction shows that Australian electors now clearly prefer Rudd (42%, up 9%) as preferred Labor Party Leader ahead of former Prime Minister Julia Gillard (9%, down 5%), Bill Shorten (9%, down 2%) and Stephen Smith (9%, down 1%). However, former Opposition Leader Malcolm Turnbull (51%, up 4%) has increased his lead over Tony Abbott (16%, down 2%) as preferred Liberal Leader.” 


This special telephone Morgan Poll was conducted over the last two nights of July 16/17, 2013, with an Australia-wide cross section of 549 electors.

Visit the Roy Morgan Online Store to browse our range of Voter Profiles by electorate, detailed Voting Intention Demographics Reports and Most important Political Issue Reports (all 150 electorates ranked by an issue).

Contact us to for a free 2-week-trial of our weekly Federal Election Voting Intention report (offer valid till 15 August 2013).


Kevin Rudd vs. Tony Abbott – By Gender

Job Approval Prime Minister & Opposition Leader: Rudd vs. Abbott

Electors were asked: “Thinking of Mr. Kevin Rudd and Mr. Tony Abbott. In your opinion, who would make the better Prime Minister – Mr. Rudd or Mr. Abbott?”

Approval of Leaders – Kevin Rudd vs. Tony Abbott

 

Electors 18+

Men

Women

 

PM Gillard

PM Rudd

PM Gillard

PM Rudd

PM Gillard

PM Rudd

 

Nov 27-29,
2012

June 11/12,
2013

July 16/17,
2013

Nov 27-29,
2012

June 11/12,
2013

July 16/17,
2013

Nov 27-29,
2012

June 11/12,
2013

July 16/17,
2013

 

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

Rudd

49

35

52

50

31

50

49

38

53

Abbott

36

47

36

35

51

37

37

42

36

Rudd lead

13

(12)

16

15

(20)

13

12

(4)

17

Other / Neither

15

18

12

15

18

13

14

20

11

TOTAL

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

Prime Minister: Kevin Rudd

Electors were asked: “Do you APPROVE or DISAPPROVE of the way Mr. Rudd is handling his job as PM?”

Analysis by Sex (Approve/ Disapprove – Kevin Rudd)

 

Electors 18+

Men

Women

 

PM Gillard

PM Rudd

PM Gillard

PM Rudd

PM Gillard

PM Rudd

 

Nov 27-29,
2012

June 11/12,
2013

July 16/17,
2013

Nov 27-29,
2012

June 11/12,
2013

July 16/17,
2013

Nov 27-29,
2012

June 11/12,
2013

July 16/17,
2013

 

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

Approve

42

27

45

43

24

49

41

30

41

Disapprove

48

65

40

48

71

40

47

60

40

Approve –

Disapprove

(6)

(38)

5

(5)

(47)

9

(6)

(30)

1

Can’t say

10

8

15

9

5

11

12

10

19

TOTAL

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

100


Opposition Leader: Tony Abbott

Electors were asked: “Do you APPROVE or DISAPPROVE of the way Mr. Abbott is handling his job as Leader of the Opposition?”

Analysis by Sex (Approve/ Disapprove – Tony Abbott) 

 

Electors 18+

Men

Women

 

PM Gillard

PM Rudd

PM Gillard

PM Rudd

PM Gillard

PM Rudd

 

Nov 27-29,
2012

June 11/12,
2013

July 16/17,
2013

Nov 27-29,
2012

June 11/12,
2013

July 16/17,
2013

Nov 27-29,
2012

June 11/12,
2013

July 16/17,
2013

 

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

Approve

28

41

38

31

44

43

25

39

33

Disapprove

63

51

54

61

48

48

64

54

60

Approve –

Disapprove

(35)

(10)

(16)

(30)

(4)

(5)

(39)

(15)

(27)

Can’t say

9

8

8

8

           8

9

11

7

7

TOTAL

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

100


Better Prime Minister: Rudd v Abbott

Electors were asked: “Thinking of Mr. Kevin Rudd and Mr. Tony Abbott. In your opinion, who would make the better Prime Minister – Mr. Rudd or Mr. Abbott?” 

 

Rudd v Abbott

 

Prime Minister Kevin Rudd

Prime Minister
Julia Gillard

PM Rudd

 

Dec 2/3,

2009

Jan 13/14,
2010

May 4/5,

2010

May 12/13,

2010

Mar 16/17,

2011

June 11/12,
2013

July 16/17,
2013

 

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

Rudd

60

61

53

49

59

50

52

Abbott

25

25

32

37

32

43

36

Rudd lead

35

36

21

12

27

7

16

Other / Can’t say

15

14

15

14

9

7

12

TOTAL

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

 

Electors 18+

Analysis by Sex & Age

 

July 16/17,
2013

Men

Women

18-24

25-34

35-49

50+

 

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

Rudd

52

50

53

77

66

52

40

Abbott

36

37

36

15

23

35

48

Rudd lead

16

13

17

62

43

17

(8)

Neither/ Can’t say

12

13

11

8

11

13

12

TOTAL

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

 

 

Electors 18+

Analysis by Federal Voting Intention

 

July 16/17,
2013

ALP

L-NP

Greens

Others

Can’t say

 

%

%

%

%

%

%

Rudd

52

95

14

78

38

19

Abbott

36

1

76

4

30

8

Rudd lead

16

94

(62)

74

8

11

Neither/ Can’t say

12

4

10

18

32

73

TOTAL

100

100

100

100

100

100


Better Prime Minister: Rudd v Turnbull

Electors were asked: “Thinking of Mr. Kevin Rudd and Mr. Malcolm Turnbull. In your opinion, who would make the better Prime Minister – Mr. Rudd or Mr. Turnbull?” 

 

Malcolm Turnbull as Opposition Leader

Turnbull on the Backbench

Turnbull as a Shadow Minister

 

Sep 24/25,
2008

Oct 15/16,
2008

Dec 17/18,
2008

May 20/21,
2009

July 1/2,
2009

Oct 7/8,
2009

Dec 2/3,
2009

Jan 13/14,
2010

July 16/17,
2013

 

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

Mr. Rudd

55

62.5

69

60.5

70

69

64

63

38

Mr. Turnbull

30

24

20

26.5

20

18

25

24

52

Rudd lead

25

38.5

49

34

50

51

39

39

(14)

Other / Can’t say

15

13.5

11

13

10

13

11

13

10

Total

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

 

 

Electors 18+

Analysis by Sex & Age

 

July 16/17,
2013

Men

Women

18-24

25-34

35-49

50+

 

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

Rudd

38

35

41

66

49

39

27

Turnbull

52

55

49

28

42

51

62

Rudd lead

(14)

(20)

(8)

38

7

(12)

(35)

Neither/ Can’t say

10

10

10

6

9

10

11

TOTAL

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

 

 

Electors 18+

Analysis by Federal Voting Intention

 

July 16/17,
2013

ALP

L-NP

Greens

Others

Can’t say

 

%

%

%

%

%

%

Rudd

38

67

13

46

34

52

Turnbull

52

28

79

38

49

-

Rudd lead

(14)

39

(66)

8

(15)

52

Neither/ Can’t say

10

5

8

16

17

48

TOTAL

100

100

10038

100

100

100


Approval of Leaders – Kevin Rudd v Tony Abbott

Prime Minister: Kevin Rudd

Electors were asked: “Do you APPROVE or DISAPPROVE of the way Mr. Rudd is handling his job as Prime Minister?”

 

Prime Minister Gillard

PM Rudd

 

Feb 21-23,

2011

Mar 8-10,

2011

Mar 16/17,

2011

Jan 17/18,

2012

Sep 17-20,

2012

Nov 27-29,

2012

June 11/12,

2013

July 16/17,
2013

 

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

Approve

46

38

40

34

40

42

27

45

Disapprove

40

51

47

54

51

48

65

40

Approve - Disapprove

6

(13)

(7)

(20)

(11)

(6)

(38)

5

Can’t say

14

11

13

12

9

10

8

15

TOTAL

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

100


 

Electors 18+

Analysis by Sex & Age

 

July 16/17,
2013

Men

Women

18-24

25-34

35-49

50+

 

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

Approve

45

49

41

64

55

50

33

Disapprove

40

40

40

18

29

34

54

Approve - Disapprove

5

9

1

46

26

16

(21)

Can’t say

15

11

19

18

16

16

13

TOTAL

100

100

100

100

100

100

100


 

Electors 18+

Analysis by Federal Voting Intention

 

July 16/17,
2013

ALP

L-NP

Greens

Others

Can’t say

 

%

%

%

%

%

%

Approve

45

83

17

43

24

22

Disapprove

40

3

72

30

54

18

Approve - Disapprove

5

80

(55)

13

(30)

4

Can’t say

15

14

11

27

22

60

TOTAL

100

100

100

100

100

100


Opposition Leader: Tony Abbott

Electors were asked: “Do you APPROVE or DISAPPROVE of the way Mr. Abbott is handling his job as Leader of the Opposition?”

 

Tony Abbott as Opposition Leader

 

Feb 21-23,
2011

Mar 8-10,
2011

Mar 16/17,
2011

Jan 17/18,
2012

Sep 17-20,
2012

Nov 27-29,
2012

June 11/12,
2013

July 16/17,
2013

 

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

Approve

36

42

37

36

32

28

41

38

Disapprove

56

48

54

56

60

63

51

54

Approve - Disapprove

(20)

(6)

(17)

(20)

(28)

(35)

(10)

(16)

Can’t say

8

10

9

8

8

9

8

8

TOTAL

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

100


 

Electors 18+

Analysis by Sex & Age

 

July 16/17,
2013

Men

Women

18-24

25-34

35-49

50+

 

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

Approve

38

43

33

31

23

40

43

Disapprove

54

48

60

60

62

52

51

Approve - Disapprove

(16)

(5)

(27)

(29)

(39)

(12)

(8)

Can’t say

8

9

7

9

15

8

6

TOTAL

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

 

Electors 18+

Analysis by Federal Voting Intention

 

July 16/17,
2013

ALP

L-NP

Greens

Others

Can’t say

 

%

%

%

%

%

%

Approve

38

13

68

15

22

11

Disapprove

54

82

21

85

67

52

Approve - Disapprove

(16)

(69)

47

(70)

(45)

(41)

Can’t say

8

5

11

-

11

37

TOTAL

100

100

100

100

100

100


Margin of Error

The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. The following table gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. The figures are approximate and for general guidance only, and assume a simple random sample.

 

Sample Size

Percentage Estimate

 

40%-60%

25% or 75%

10% or 90%

5% or 95%

500

±4.5

±3.9

±2.7

±1.9

For further information:

Gary Morgan:       Office +61 3 9224 5213   Mobile +61 411 129 094

Michele Levine:  Office +61 3 9224 5215   Mobile +61 411 129 093

The Morgan Poll is conducted by the ONLY Australian and New Zealand member of the Gallup International Association. 

No other public opinion poll taken in Australia has this qualification.