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National Party 51% (up 4%) now lead Labour - Greens 39% (down 3.5%) Biggest lead since 2011 New Zealand Election

This latest New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll on voting intention was conducted by telephone – both landline and mobile telephone, with a NZ wide cross-section of 824 electors from July 15-28, 2013. Of all electors surveyed 4% (unchanged) didn’t name a party.

Today’s New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll shows a large rise in support for Prime Minister John Key’s National Party to 51% (up 4% since July 1-14, 2013). Support for Key’s Coalition partners has changed little with the Maori Party 1.5% (down 0.5%), ACT NZ 1% (up 0.5%) and United Future 0% (unchanged) .

Support for Labour is 29% (down 2%); Greens are 10% (down 1.5%), New Zealand First 4% (down 0.5%), Mana Party 1% (down 0.5%), Conservative Party of NZ 1.5% (unchanged) and Others 1% (up 0.5%).

If a National Election were held now the latest NZ Roy Morgan Poll shows that the National-led Coalition parties would win easily.

The latest NZ Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating is unchanged at 128.5 with 58.5% (up 0.5%) of New Zealanders saying New Zealand is ‘heading in the right direction’ compared to 30% (up 0.5%) that say New Zealand is ‘heading in the wrong direction’.

Gary Morgan says:

“Today’s New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll contains further good news for governing National (51%, up 4%) now up for the fourth straight Morgan Poll and well ahead of Labour/ Greens (39%, down 3.5%). This is the biggest lead for National since the 2011 New Zealand Election.

“The boost for PM John Key comes as the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) hit a five-year high against the Australian Dollar (AUD) at just under 90c AUD and amid rising optimism about the prospects for the New Zealand economy. The ANZ-Roy Morgan New Zealand Consumer Confidence Rating is near a three year high at 119.8 in July while the ANZ Business Outlook shows business confidence at a 14 year high.”

Electors were asked: “If a New Zealand Election were held today which party would receive your party vote?”

This latest New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll on voting intention was conducted by telephone – both landline and mobile telephone, with a NZ wide cross-section of 824 electors from July 15-28, 2013. Of all electors surveyed 4% (unchanged) didn’t name a party.


Roy Morgan New Zealand Voting Intention - July 31, 2013

New Zealand GCR


For further information:

Gary Morgan
Office +61 3 9224 5213   
Mobile +61 411 129 094

Michele Levine
Office +61 3 9224 5215   
Mobile +61 411 129 093


Margin of Error

The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. The following table gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. The figures are approximate and for general guidance only, and assume a simple random sample.

Sample Size

Percentage Estimate

 

40%-60%

25% or 75%

10% or 90%

5% or 95%

1,000

±3.2

±2.7

±1.9

±1.4

1,500

±2.5

±2.2

±1.5

±1.1