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ALP & L-NP dead even as Rudd fires the starter’s gun for Election

Finding No. 5085 - This multi-mode Morgan Poll on Federal voting intention was conducted over the last few days via Face-to-Face, Internet and SMS interviewing, August 2-4, 2013 with an Australia-wide cross-section of 3,326Australian electors aged 18+, of all electors surveyed 0.5% (down 0.5%) did not name a party.

Today’s Morgan Poll shows both major parties dead-even as Prime Minister Kevin Rudd yesterday announced this year’s Federal Election would be help on Saturday September 7 – a week earlier than promised by former PM Julia Gillard. The ALP 50% (down 2%) is now level with L-NP 50% (up 2%) on a two-party preferred basis.

This is the first Morgan Poll conducted since the announcement that the Federal Budget deficit would blow out from an expected $18 billion announced in May to over $30 billion this year.

The ALP primary vote is 38% (down 0.5%), behind the L-NP primary vote at 43% (up 1.5%).

Among the minor parties Greens support is 9.5% (down 1%) and support for Independents/ Others is 9.5% (unchanged) – including within that support for Katter’s Australian Party of 1% and support for the Palmer United Party of 1%.

The Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating has fallen again in the past week – down 4pts to 100. Now 40% (down 1%) of Australians say Australia is ‘heading in the right direction’ and 40% (up 3%) say Australia is ‘heading in the wrong direction’ – this is the lowest since Kevin Rudd returned as Prime Minister in late June.

If a Federal Election were held today the country would be heading for another ‘Hung Parliament’ with both parties locked on 50% of the two-party preferred vote according to this weekend’s multi-mode Morgan Poll on Federal voting intention with an Australia-wide cross-section of 3,326 Australian electors aged 18+. The Morgan Poll surveys a significantly larger sample (including people who only use a mobile phone) than any other public opinion poll.

For the Poll Nerds! Calculation of 2PP vote is based on how preferences for minor parties are allocated:

The Morgan Poll allocates preferences of minor party voters based on how electors surveyed say they will vote: ALP (50%) cf. L-NP (50%). When the Morgan Poll allocates preferences by how Australian electors gave their preferences at the last Federal election – the method used by Newspoll, Fairfax Nielsen and Galaxy – the Morgan Poll shows a small lead for the L-NP (50.5%, up 1%) cf. ALP (49.5%, down 1%).

Although not everyone votes ‘the card’, how the preferences of minor parties are allocated on Election Day will depend on the ‘deals’ that are done by various parties and the ‘cards’.

Analysis by Gender

Analysis by Gender shows Women swinging back to the L-NP this week but still clearly favouring the ALP (52%, down 2%) cf. L-NP (48%, up 2%) on a two party preferred basis. Men now clearly favour the L-NP 52% (up 1.5%) cf. ALP 48% (down 1.5%).

Gary Morgan says:

“Today’s Morgan Poll shows both major parties dead-even as Prime Minister Kevin Rudd announced the Federal Election date as Saturday September 7, 2013. ALP (50%, down 2%) cf. L-NP (50%, up 2%) on a two-party preferred basis.

The fall in support for the ALP came after Treasurer Chris Bowen announced on Friday that this year’s Federal Budget deficit has gone from $18 billion in May to over $30 billion in only ten weeks. The Budget is now not expected to return to surplus until 2016/17. None of Bowen’s announced increased taxation revenue raises are scheduled until next year – Government spending is out of control and the Australian economy is in much worse shape than electors have been told up until now.

“It’s no wonder that Roy Morgan Government Confidence has now fallen for the second week in a row to 100 (down 4pts this week and down 15pts over the past two weeks) – it’s lowest since Rudd returned as Prime Minister in late June. For either party to win this year’s Federal Election they must explain how they are going to turn the Australian economy around and prevent Australia having a recession ‘we don’t have to have’.

Today’s Roy Morgan July unemployment estimate shows unemployment rising to 10.1% (up 0.4%) – 1,267,000 Australians looking for work. A further 1,131,000 (9.0%) Australians are under-employed – working part-time and looking for more work. These estimates show the Australian economy is in clear need of further stimulus and the RBA must drop interest rates by at least 0.5% tomorrow at its monthly interest rates setting meeting tomorrow to provide that stimulus.

“Special Roy Morgan qualitative research undertaken over the weekend shows what electors think of the two major parties as the official election campaign begins. Those supporting Labor made many comments along these lines: ‘I absolutely do not want Tony Abbott as PM’; ‘Because we will be back in the dark ages if Tony Abbott gets in’; I’ll do anything to stop a Tony Abbott-led L-NP Government’; ‘I agree with the current Labor NBN policy and it’s the most important issue to me at this election’; ‘I believe Kevin Rudd is the right leader for this country and wants to work for its people with the right policies’; ‘To ensure Tony Abbott’s ultra conservatives don’t get hold of the country’; ‘I support Labor’s policies and philosophy. I don’t trust Tony Abbott, he is too negative’; ‘I think the ETS is a good scheme, and the NBN is also a good idea’; ‘Kevin Rudd has done a good job so far’.

“Electors supporting the Coalition often brought up their lack of trust in Labor and their poor handling of the economy: ‘The Labor party has cost us too much money, so much waste and I believe you shouldn’t go backwards’; ‘Kevin Rudd is not transparent and I don’t like his treatment of Julia Gillard and his pretence that he has changed from his last stint’; ‘Because Labor is destroying this country. They have no concept of financial management’; ‘I am traditionally a Labor voter, but I’m disillusioned by Labor’s failures’; ‘Anything is better than Mr. Rudd spending all our money’; ‘Labor are hopeless’; ‘Labor has put us in ridiculous debt, they can’t govern properly’; ‘I am unhappy with the performance of the Labor party and don’t trust their unity’; ‘If we allow the Labor party to run Australia into the ground with their idiotic fiscal policies we’ll end up like Spain and Greece’; ‘Having Kevin Rudd replacing Julia Gillard doesn’t change anything – Labor are still wasting money and the Liberal’s policies are better’; ‘Labor’s mismanagement means they don’t deserve re-election’; ‘Labor are just too erratic’.”

Electors were asked: “If an election for the House of Representatives were held today — which party would receive your first preference?”

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Finding No. 5085 - This multi-mode Morgan Poll on Federal voting intention was conducted over the last few days via Face-to-Face, Internet and SMS interviewing, August 2-4, 2013 with an Australia-wide cross-section of 3,326 Australian electors aged 18+, of all electors surveyed 0.5% (down 0.5%) did not name a party.


Analysis by Sex 

MEN

 

PRIMARY VOTE

 

 

July
12-14, 2013

July
19-21, 2013

July
26-28, 2013

August
2-4, 2013

% Change
this week

 

%

%

%

%

%

ALP

42.5

39.5

37.5

36

-1.5

L-NP

42 (3.5)

44 (2.5)

43.5 (2)

45.5 (2)

+2

Greens

5.5

7

8

7.5

-0.5

Ind. /Other

10

9.5

11

11

-

TOTAL

100

100

100

100

 

 

TWO-PARTY PREFERRED

 

ALP

51.5

50

49.5

48

-1.5

L-NP

48.5

50

50.5

52

+1.5

TOTAL

100

100

100

100

 

Sample size

1,622

1,754

1,804

1,650

 

WOMEN

 

PRIMARY VOTE

 

 

July
12-14, 2013

July
19-21, 2013

July
26-28, 2013

August
2-4, 2013

% Change
this week

 

%

%

%

%

%

ALP

41.5

43

39.5

40

+0.5

L-NP

40.5 (2.5)

38 (3)

40 (3)

40.5 (2)

+0.5

Greens

8.5

10

12.5

10.5

-2

Ind. /Other

9.5

9

8

9

+1

TOTAL

100

100

100

100

 

 

TWO-PARTY PREFERRED

 

ALP

53

55.5

54

52

-2

L-NP

47

44.5

46

48

+2

TOTAL

100

100

100

100

 

Sample size

1,809

1,818

1,771

1,676

 


ANALYSIS BY CITIES/ REGIONS

CAPITAL CITIES

 

PRIMARY VOTE

 

 

July
12-14, 2013

July
19-21, 2013

July
26-28, 2013

August
2-4, 2013

% Change
this week

 

%

%

%

%

%

ALP

42

41

39.5

39.5

-

L-NP

41.5 (1)

41 (1)

42 (1)

41.5 (0.5)

-0.5

Greens

8

10.5

10.5

10.5

-

Ind. /Other

8.5

7.5

8

8.5

+0.5

TOTAL

100

100

100

100

 

 

TWO-PARTY PREFERRED

 

ALP

52.5

53

53

52.5

-0.5

L-NP

47.5

47

47

47.5

+0.5

TOTAL

100

100

100

100

 

Sample size

2,090

2,130

2,133

1,999

 

COUNTRY AREAS 

 

PRIMARY VOTE

 

 

July
12-14, 2013

July
19-21, 2013

July
26-28, 2013

August
2-4, 2013

% Change
this week

 

%

%

%

%

%

ALP

42

42.5

37

36.5

-0.5

L-NP

40.5 (6)

41 (5)

41 (5)

44.5 (5)

+3.5

Greens

6

6.5

10

7.5

-2.5

Ind. /Other

11.5

10

12

11.5

-0.5

TOTAL

100

100

100

100

 

 

TWO-PARTY PREFERRED

 

ALP

52

52

50.5

46.5

-4

L-NP

48

48

49.5

53.5

+4

TOTAL

100

100

100

100

 

Sample size

1,341

1,442

1,442

1,327

 


Analysis by State

NEW SOUTH WALES

 

PRIMARY VOTE

 

 

July
12-14, 2013

July
19-21, 2013

July
26-28, 2013

August
2-4, 2013

% Change
this week

 

%

%

%

%

%

ALP

42.5

44

40

40.5

+0.5

L-NP

42.5 (3.5)

39.5 (3.5)

43 (3.5)

42.5 (4)

-0.5

Greens

5.5

7

8.5

8

-0.5

Ind. /Other

9.5

9.5

8.5

9

+0.5

TOTAL

100

100

100

100

 

 

TWO-PARTY PREFERRED

 

ALP

51.5

54

50.5

52

+1.5

L-NP

48.5

46

49.5

48

-1.5

TOTAL

100

100

100

100

 

Sample size

1,044

1,085

1,092

1,059

 

 

VICTORIA

 

PRIMARY VOTE

 

 

July
12-14, 2013

July
19-21, 2013

July
26-28, 2013

August
2-4, 2013

% Change
this week

 

%

%

%

%

%

ALP

43.5

41.5

38

38.5

+0.5

L-NP

39 (3)

39 (2.5)

38.5 (2)

39.5 (1.5)

+1

Greens

9.5

13

13.5

13

-0.5

Ind. /Other

8

6.5

10

9

-1

TOTAL

100

100

100

100

 

 

TWO-PARTY PREFERRED

 

ALP

55.5

55

56

53.5

-2.5

L-NP

44.5

45

44

46.5

+2.5

TOTAL

100

100

100

100

 

Sample size

881

898

911

840

 


QUEENSLAND

 

PRIMARY VOTE

 

 

July
12-14, 2013

July
19-21, 2013

July
26-28, 2013

August
2-4, 2013

% Change
this week

 

%

%

%

%

%

ALP

41.5

39.5

35.5

36

+0.5

LNP

41

45

45.5 (1.5)

46.5 (2)

+1

Greens

5.5

5.5

9

6

-3

Ind. /Other

12

10

10

11.5

+1.5

TOTAL

100

100

100

100

 

 

TWO-PARTY PREFERRED

 

ALP

50

48.5

47

45

-2

LNP

50

51.5

53

55

+2

TOTAL

100

100

100

100

 

Sample size

643

705

683

650

 

WESTERN AUSTRALIA

 

PRIMARY VOTE

 

 

July
12-14, 2013

July
19-21, 2013

July
26-28, 2013

August
2-4, 2013

% Change
this week

 

%

%

%

%

%

ALP

34

31.5

35.5

33.5

-2

L-NP

48.5 (7)

51 (4)

46 (4.5)

48.5 (2)

+2.5

Greens

9

9.5

9.5

10

+0.5

Ind. /Other

8.5

8

9

8

-1

TOTAL

100

100

100

100

 

 

TWO-PARTY PREFERRED

 

ALP

46

40

48

41.5

-6.5

L-NP

54

60

52

58.5

+6.5

TOTAL

100

100

100

100

 

Sample size

293

334

322

279

 


SOUTH AUSTRALIA

 

PRIMARY VOTE

 

 

July
12-14, 2013

July
19-21, 2013

July
26-28, 2013

August
2-4, 2013

% Change
this week

 

%

%

%

%

%

ALP

40.5

43.5

40

30.5

-9.5

L-NP

38.5 (0.5)

35.5 (1.5)

38 (0.5)

44.5 (0.5)

+6.5

Greens

9

11

10

9.5

-0.5

Ind. /Other

12

10

12

15.5

+3.5

TOTAL

100

100

100

100

 

 

TWO-PARTY PREFERRED

 

ALP

51.5

60.5

54

47.5

-6.5

L-NP

48.5

39.5

46

52.5

+6.5

TOTAL

100

100

100

100

 

Sample size

296

254

273

232

 

TASMANIA*

 

PRIMARY VOTE

 

 

July
12-14, 2013

July
19-21, 2013

July
26-28, 2013

August
2-4, 2013

% Change
this week

 

%

%

%

%

%

ALP

46

36.5

43.5

50

+6.5

L-NP

37 (0)

35 (0)

38 (0)

37

-1

Greens

6

10.5

9

6.5

-2.5

Ind. /Other

11

18

9.5

6.5

-3

TOTAL

100

100

100

100

 

 

TWO-PARTY PREFERRED

 

ALP

61.5

55

56.5

59

+2.5

L-NP

38.5

45

43.5

41

-2.5

TOTAL

100

100

100

100

 

Sample size

151

132

152

128

 

*Please note. The small sample size in Tasmania means the Tasmanian figures should be treated with a degree of caution on their own. The figures are primarily used as part of a larger sample.


ANALYSIS BY AGE

18-24

 

PRIMARY VOTE

 

 

July
12-14, 2013

July
19-21, 2013

July
26-28, 2013

August
2-4, 2013

% Change
this week

 

%

%

%

%

%

ALP

38

40

40.5

37

-3.5

L-NP

30 (1)

35 (2)

28 (1)

29 (0.5)

+1

Greens

13

16

17.5

16

-1.5

Ind. /Other

19

9

14

18

+4

TOTAL

100

100

100

100

 

 

TWO-PARTY PREFERRED

 

ALP

59.5

57

62

57

-5

L-NP

40.5

43

38

43

+5

TOTAL

100

100

100

100

 

Sample size

240

257

231

236

 

 

25-34

 

PRIMARY VOTE

 

 

July
12-14, 2013

July
19-21, 2013

July
26-28, 2013

 

August
2-4, 2013

% Change
this week

 

%

%

%

%

%

ALP

45.5

44

40.5

43

+2.5

L-NP

34.5 (2)

32.5 (1.5)

36.5 (1.5)

31 (1)

-5.5

Greens

11.5

13.5

16.5

14

-2.5

Ind. /Other

8.5

10

6.5

12

+5.5

TOTAL

100

100

100

100

 

 

TWO-PARTY PREFERRED

 

ALP

58.5

59

58.5

60

+1.5

L-NP

41.5

41

41.5

40

-1.5

TOTAL

100

100

100

100

 

Sample size

481

491

477

430

 


35-49

 

PRIMARY VOTE

 

 

July
12-14, 2013

July
19-21, 2013

July
26-28, 2013

August
2-4, 2013

% Change
this week

 

%

%

%

%

%

ALP

44.5

41

38

37.5

-0.5

L-NP

39 (2.5)

40 (2.5)

38.5 (1.5)

42.5 (3)

+4

Greens

6.5

9

12

11.5

-0.5

Ind. /Other

10

10

11.5

8.5

-3

TOTAL

100

100

100

100

 

 

TWO-PARTY PREFERRED

 

ALP

55

53

53.5

50.5

-3

L-NP

45

47

46.5

49.5

+3

TOTAL

100

100

100

100

 

Sample size

892

879

885

837

 

50-64

 

PRIMARY VOTE

 

 

July
12-14, 2013

July
19-21, 2013

July
26-28, 2013

August
2-4, 2013

% Change
this week

 

%

%

%

%

%

ALP

40

42

38.5

37

-1.5

L-NP

45 (3)

42 (2.5)

44 (2)

47 (2.5)

+3

Greens

6

7.5

7

6

-1

Ind. /Other

9

8.5

10.5

10

-0.5

TOTAL

100

100

100

100

 

 

TWO-PARTY PREFERRED

 

ALP

49.5

52

50.5

47

-3.5

L-NP

50.5

48

49.5

53

+3.5

TOTAL

100

100

100

100

 

Sample size

1,015

1,143

1,170

1,041

 


65+

 

PRIMARY VOTE

 

 

July
12-14, 2013

July
19-21, 2013

July
26-28, 2013

August
2-4, 2013

% Change
this week

 

%

%

%

%

%

ALP

40

39

36.5

37

+0.5

L-NP

49.5 (4.5)

49.5 (3.5)

53.5 (4.5)

53 (3)

-0.5

Greens

3.5

4.5

4.5

3.5

-1

Ind. /Other

7

7

5.5

6.5

+1

TOTAL

100

100

100

100

 

 

TWO-PARTY PREFERRED

 

ALP

44.5

47

43

43

-

L-NP

55.5

53

57

57

-

TOTAL

100

100

100

100

 

Sample size

803

802

812

782

 

TOTAL

 

PRIMARY VOTE

 

 

July
12-14, 2013

July
19-21, 2013

July
26-28, 2013

August
2-4, 2013

% Change
this week

 

%

%

%

%

%

ALP

42

41.5

38.5

38

-0.5

L-NP

41 (3)

41 (2.5)

41.5 (2.5)

43 (2)

+1.5

Greens

7

9

10.5

9.5

-1

Ind. /Other

10

8.5

9.5

9.5

-

TOTAL

100

100

100

100

 

 

TWO-PARTY PREFERRED

 

ALP

52.5

52.5

52

50

-2

L-NP

47.5

47.5

48

50

+2

TOTAL

100

100

100

100

 

Sample size

3,431

3,572

3,575

3,326

 



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Data Tables


Latest Morgan Poll - Federal Voting Intention - August 5, 2013

Roy Morgan GCR


Margin of Error

The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. The following table gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. The figures are approximate and for general guidance only, and assume a simple random sample. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.

Sample Size

Percentage Estimate

40%-60%

25% or 75%

10% or 90%

5% or 95%

500

±4.5

±3.9

±2.7

±1.9

1,000

±3.2

±2.7

±1.9

±1.4

1,500

±2.6

±2.2

±1.5

±1.1

2,000

±2.2

±1.9

±1.3

±1.0