46% of electors say Kevin Rudd is the ‘Better PM’, just 3% ahead of Tony Abbott at 43%, but neither has the electorate’s approval

Prime Minister Kevin Rudd (46%, down 6% since July 16/17, 2013) now only narrowly leads Opposition Leader Tony Abbott (43%, up 7%) as ‘Better Prime Minister’ according to a special telephone Morgan Poll conducted over the last two nights (August 12/13, 2013).

Job Performance – Approve/Disapprove

Australian electors clearly disapprove of Prime Minister Kevin Rudd’s handling of his job as Prime Minister with 49% (up 9%) disapproving compared to 40% (down 5%) approving while 11% (down 4%) can’t say.

Australian electors have a very similar view of Opposition Leader Tony Abbott’s handling of the job as Opposition Leader, 48% (down 6%) disapprove, 42% (up 4%) approve and 10% (up 2%) can’t say.

Analysis by Gender

Analysis by gender shows Rudd has lost support from both Men and Women over the past month while Abbott has gained. Men narrowly prefer Rudd (47%, down 3%) cf. Abbott (43%, up 6%) and Women also narrowly prefer Rudd (45%, down 8%) cf. Abbott (42%, up 6%).

Now more Men (48%) and Women (50%) disapprove of Prime Minister Kevin Rudd’s handling of the job than approve (Men: 43% and Women: 37%). More Men (47%) and Women (48%) disapprove of Tony Abbott’s handling of the job as Opposition Leader than approve (Men: 44% and Women: 39%).

Sunday Night Leaders Debate – and the discussion that followed

Sunday night’s Leaders Debate was widely regarded as a close contest. A special Snap SMS Morgan Poll conducted immediately after the end of the debate found Kevin Rudd (24%) narrowly beat Tony Abbott (23%) with 5% calling a tie and 48% didn’t watch the debate.

However, a special telephone Morgan Poll conducted over the last two nights shows Opposition Leader Tony Abbott (24%) is now seen as the clear winner of the debate over Kevin Rudd (16%) with 10% calling a tie and 50% didn’t watch the debate.

Michele Levine says:

“The debate and the analysis that followed, including discussion around the use of notes by Prime Minister Kevin Rudd, marked a new turning point in this election.

“A special SMS Morgan Poll immediately post-debate (Sunday August 11, 2013) found Kevin Rudd (24%) cf. Tony Abbot (23%); Tie (5%); didn’t watch the debate (48%). The electorate scored the debate as almost a ‘dead-heat’.

“Then days later after much discussion about the debate a special telephone Morgan Poll (Monday August 12 – Tuesday August 13, 2013) shows Tony Abbott (24%) cf. Kevin Rudd (16%); Tie (10%); didn’t watch the debate (50%). The electorate scores the debate as a clear win to Tony Abbott.

“Now the latest Morgan Poll on Approvals and Better Prime Minister shows Kevin Rudd clearly out of his ‘honeymoon’ and only marginally ahead of Tony Abbott as Australia’s preferred Prime Minister: Rudd (46%) cf. Abbott (43%). This is the closest Abbott has ever been to Rudd on this measure since Abbott became the Opposition Leader in December 2009.

“With three weeks to go before the Federal Election the pressure is on both leaders to articulate their policies – on the important issues of Cost of living, taxation and employment; and to show their ‘leadership’ qualities.”

For the Poll nerds

This telephone Morgan Poll shows Two-Party preferred: L-NP 57% cf. ALP 43%. The primary vote is L-NP 52%, ALP 31%, Greens 9% and Independent/Others 8%. Of those surveyed 2.5% did not name a party.

This special telephone Morgan Poll was conducted over the last two nights this week of August 12/13, 2013, with an Australia-wide cross section of 569 electors.

Gary Morgan says:

“It needs to be remembered that telephone polls are biased towards the party that receives the best publicity. Tony Abbott’s ‘free kick’ from News Corp over the last few days accusing Rudd of cheating in the debate by using notes has no doubt boosted the Opposition Leader’s credibility although his comment yesterday on ‘sex appeal’ was crass, definitely irrelevant and unnecessary. Prediction: You can expect all telephone polls conducted over the next few days to show a jump in support for the Liberal-National Party!”

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Sunday Night Leaders Debate

Electors were asked: “In your opinion, who won Sunday night’s Leaders Debate?”

#Figures for some these demographics must be treated with caution as there are under 50 interviews.

#Figures for some these demographics must be treated with caution as there are under 50 interviews.

Kevin Rudd vs. Tony Abbott – By Gender

Job Approval Prime Minister & Opposition Leader: Rudd vs. Abbott

Electors were asked: “Thinking of Mr. Kevin Rudd and Mr. Tony Abbott. In your opinion, who would make the better Prime Minister – Mr. Rudd or Mr. Abbott?”

Approval of Leaders – Kevin Rudd vs. Tony Abbott

Prime Minister: Kevin Rudd

Electors were asked: “Do you APPROVE or DISAPPROVE of the way Mr. Rudd is handling his job as PM?”

Analysis by Sex (Approve/ Disapprove – Kevin Rudd)

Opposition Leader: Tony Abbott

Electors were asked: “Do you APPROVE or DISAPPROVE of the way Mr. Abbott is handling his job as Leader of the Opposition?”

Analysis by Sex (Approve/ Disapprove – Tony Abbott)

Better Prime Minister: Rudd v Abbott

Electors were asked: “Thinking of Mr. Kevin Rudd and Mr. Tony Abbott. In your opinion, who would make the better Prime Minister – Mr. Rudd or Mr. Abbott?”

Approval of Leaders – Kevin Rudd v Tony Abbott

Prime Minister: Kevin Rudd

Electors were asked: “Do you APPROVE or DISAPPROVE of the way Mr. Rudd is handling his job as Prime Minister?”

Opposition Leader: Tony Abbott

Electors were asked: “Do you APPROVE or DISAPPROVE of the way Mr. Abbott is handling his job as Leader of the Opposition?”

Margin of Error

The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. The following table gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. The figures are approximate and for general guidance only, and assume a simple random sample. 

For further information:

Gary Morgan:       Office +61 3 9224 5213   Mobile +61 411 129 094

Michele Levine:    Office +61 3 9224 5215   Mobile +61 411 129 093

The Morgan Poll is conducted by the ONLY Australian and New Zealand member of the Gallup International Association.

No other public opinion poll taken in Australia has this qualification.