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46% of electors say Kevin Rudd is the ‘Better PM’, just 3% ahead of Tony Abbott at 43%, but neither has the electorate’s approval

This special telephone Morgan Poll was conducted over the last two nights this week of August 12/13, 2013, with an Australia-wide cross section of 569 electors.

Prime Minister Kevin Rudd (46%, down 6% since July 16/17, 2013) now only narrowly leads Opposition Leader Tony Abbott (43%, up 7%) as ‘Better Prime Minister’ according to a special telephone Morgan Poll conducted over the last two nights (August 12/13, 2013).

Job Performance – Approve/Disapprove

Australian electors clearly disapprove of Prime Minister Kevin Rudd’s handling of his job as Prime Minister with 49% (up 9%) disapproving compared to 40% (down 5%) approving while 11% (down 4%) can’t say.

Australian electors have a very similar view of Opposition Leader Tony Abbott’s handling of the job as Opposition Leader, 48% (down 6%) disapprove, 42% (up 4%) approve and 10% (up 2%) can’t say.

Analysis by Gender

Analysis by gender shows Rudd has lost support from both Men and Women over the past month while Abbott has gained. Men narrowly prefer Rudd (47%, down 3%) cf. Abbott (43%, up 6%) and Women also narrowly prefer Rudd (45%, down 8%) cf. Abbott (42%, up 6%).

Now more Men (48%) and Women (50%) disapprove of Prime Minister Kevin Rudd’s handling of the job than approve (Men: 43% and Women: 37%). More Men (47%) and Women (48%) disapprove of Tony Abbott’s handling of the job as Opposition Leader than approve (Men: 44% and Women: 39%).

Sunday Night Leaders Debate – and the discussion that followed

Sunday night’s Leaders Debate was widely regarded as a close contest. A special Snap SMS Morgan Poll conducted immediately after the end of the debate found Kevin Rudd (24%) narrowly beat Tony Abbott (23%) with 5% calling a tie and 48% didn’t watch the debate.

However, a special telephone Morgan Poll conducted over the last two nights shows Opposition Leader Tony Abbott (24%) is now seen as the clear winner of the debate over Kevin Rudd (16%) with 10% calling a tie and 50% didn’t watch the debate.

Michele Levine says:

“The debate and the analysis that followed, including discussion around the use of notes by Prime Minister Kevin Rudd, marked a new turning point in this election.

“A special SMS Morgan Poll immediately post-debate (Sunday August 11, 2013) found Kevin Rudd (24%) cf. Tony Abbot (23%); Tie (5%); didn’t watch the debate (48%). The electorate scored the debate as almost a ‘dead-heat’.

“Then days later after much discussion about the debate a special telephone Morgan Poll (Monday August 12 – Tuesday August 13, 2013) shows Tony Abbott (24%) cf. Kevin Rudd (16%); Tie (10%); didn’t watch the debate (50%). The electorate scores the debate as a clear win to Tony Abbott.

“Now the latest Morgan Poll on Approvals and Better Prime Minister shows Kevin Rudd clearly out of his ‘honeymoon’ and only marginally ahead of Tony Abbott as Australia’s preferred Prime Minister: Rudd (46%) cf. Abbott (43%). This is the closest Abbott has ever been to Rudd on this measure since Abbott became the Opposition Leader in December 2009.

“With three weeks to go before the Federal Election the pressure is on both leaders to articulate their policies – on the important issues of Cost of living, taxation and employment; and to show their ‘leadership’ qualities.”

For the Poll nerds

This telephone Morgan Poll shows Two-Party preferred: L-NP 57% cf. ALP 43%. The primary vote is L-NP 52%, ALP 31%, Greens 9% and Independent/Others 8%. Of those surveyed 2.5% did not name a party.

This special telephone Morgan Poll was conducted over the last two nights this week of August 12/13, 2013, with an Australia-wide cross section of 569 electors.

Gary Morgan says:

“It needs to be remembered that telephone polls are biased towards the party that receives the best publicity. Tony Abbott’s ‘free kick’ from News Corp over the last few days accusing Rudd of cheating in the debate by using notes has no doubt boosted the Opposition Leader’s credibility although his comment yesterday on ‘sex appeal’ was crass, definitely irrelevant and unnecessary. Prediction: You can expect all telephone polls conducted over the next few days to show a jump in support for the Liberal-National Party!”


Visit the Roy Morgan Online Store to browse our range of Voter Profiles by electorate, detailed Voting Intention Demographics Reports and Most important Political Issue Reports (all 150 electorates ranked by an issue).

Contact us to for a free 2-week-trial of our weekly Federal Election Voting Intention report (offer valid till 22 August 2013).


Sunday Night Leaders Debate

Electors were asked: “In your opinion, who won Sunday night’s Leaders Debate?”

 

Electors 18+

Analysis by Federal Voting Intention

 

Aug 11,
2013

Aug 12/13,
2013

ALP

L-NP

Greens#

Others#

Can’t say#

 

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

Mr. Abbott

23

24

5

40

7

13

21

Mr. Rudd

24

16

33

5

22

16

12

Abbott lead

(1)

7

(28)

35

(15)

(3)

9

Tie

5

10

10

10

8

23

5

Didn’t watch Debate

48

50

52

45

63

38

62

TOTAL

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

#Figures for some these demographics must be treated with caution as there are under 50 interviews.

 

Electors 18+

Analysis by Sex & Age

 

 

Aug 11,
2013

Aug 12/13,
2013

Men

Women

18-24

25-34

35-49

50+

 

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

Mr. Abbott

23

24

23

25

15

19

24

28

Mr. Rudd

24

16

16

15

20

14

15

15

Abbott lead

(1)

7

7

10

(5)

5

9

13

Tie

5

10

11

9

8

6

7

14

Didn’t watch Debate

48

50

50

51

57

61

54

43

TOTAL

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

100


 

Electors 18+

Analysis by State

 

 

Aug 11,
2013

Aug 12/13,
2013

NSW

VIC

QLD

WA

SA

TAS#

 

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

Mr. Abbott

23

24

29

22

28

13

17

35

Mr. Rudd

24

16

19

14

18

7

7

11

Abbott lead

(1)

7

10

8

10

6

10

24

Tie

5

10

11

8

9

7

12

6

Didn’t watch Debate

48

50

41

56

45

73

64

48

TOTAL

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

#Figures for some these demographics must be treated with caution as there are under 50 interviews.


Kevin Rudd vs. Tony Abbott – By Gender

Job Approval Prime Minister & Opposition Leader: Rudd vs. Abbott

Electors were asked: “Thinking of Mr. Kevin Rudd and Mr. Tony Abbott. In your opinion, who would make the better Prime Minister – Mr. Rudd or Mr. Abbott?”

Approval of Leaders – Kevin Rudd vs. Tony Abbott

 

Electors 18+

Men

Women

 

PM
Gillard

PM
Rudd

PM
Gillard

PM
Rudd

PM
Gillard

PM
Rudd

 

June 11/12,
2013

July 16/17,
2013

Aug 12/13,
2013

June 11/12,
2013

July 16/17,
2013

Aug 12/13,
2013

June 11/12,
2013

July 16/17,
2013

Aug 12/13,
2013

 

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

Rudd

35

52

46

31

50

47

38

53

45

Abbott

47

36

43

51

37

43

42

36

42

Rudd lead

(12)

16

3

(20)

13

4

(4)

17

3

Other / Neither

18

12

11

18

13

10

20

11

13

TOTAL

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

100


Prime Minister: Kevin Rudd

Electors were asked: “Do you APPROVE or DISAPPROVE of the way Mr. Rudd is handling his job as PM?”

Analysis by Sex (Approve/ Disapprove – Kevin Rudd)

 

Electors 18+

Men

Women

 

PM
Gillard

PM
Rudd

PM
Gillard

PM
Rudd

PM
Gillard

PM
Rudd

 

June 11/12,
2013

July 16/17,
2013

Aug 12/13,
2013

June 11/12,
2013

July 16/17,
2013

Aug 12/13,
2013

June 11/12,
2013

July 16/17,
2013

Aug 12/13,
2013

 

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

Approve

27

45

40

24

49

43

30

41

37

Disapprove

65

40

49

71

40

48

60

40

50

Approve –

Disapprove

(38)

5

(9)

(47)

9

(5)

(30)

1

(13)

Can’t say

8

15

11

5

11

9

10

19

13

TOTAL

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

100


Opposition Leader: Tony Abbott

Electors were asked: “Do you APPROVE or DISAPPROVE of the way Mr. Abbott is handling his job as Leader of the Opposition?”

Analysis by Sex (Approve/ Disapprove – Tony Abbott)

 

Electors 18+

Men

Women

 

PM
Gillard

PM
Rudd

PM
Gillard

PM
Rudd

PM
Gillard

PM
Rudd

 

June 11/12,
2013

July 16/17,
2013

Aug 12/13,
2013

June 11/12,
2013

July 16/17,
2013

Aug 12/13,
2013

June 11/12,
2013

July 16/17,
2013

Aug 12/13,
2013

 

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

Approve

41

38

42

44

43

44

39

33

39

Disapprove

51

54

48

48

48

47

54

60

48

Approve –

Disapprove

(10)

(16)

(6)

(4)

(5)

(3)

(15)

(27)

(9)

Can’t say

8

8

10

           8

9

9

7

7

13

TOTAL

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

100


Better Prime Minister: Rudd v Abbott

Electors were asked: “Thinking of Mr. Kevin Rudd and Mr. Tony Abbott. In your opinion, who would make the better Prime Minister – Mr. Rudd or Mr. Abbott?”

 

Rudd v Abbott

 

Prime Minister Kevin Rudd

Prime Minister
Julia Gillard

PM Rudd

 

Dec 2/3,

2009

Jan 13/14,
2010

May 4/5,

2010

May 12/13,

2010

Mar 16/17,

2011

June 11/12,
2013

July 16/17,
2013

Aug 12/13,
2013

 

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

Rudd

60

61

53

49

59

50

52

46

Abbott

25

25

32

37

32

43

36

43

Rudd lead

35

36

21

12

27

7

16

3

Other / Can’t say

15

14

15

14

9

7

12

11

TOTAL

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

100


 

Electors 18+

Analysis by Sex & Age

 

Aug 12/13,
2013

Men

Women

18-24

25-34

35-49

50+

 

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

Rudd

46

47

45

56

62

47

37

Abbott

43

43

42

38

29

39

51

Rudd lead

3

4

3

18

33

8

(14)

Neither/ Can’t say

11

10

13

6

9

14

12

TOTAL

100

100

100

100

100

100

100


 

Electors 18+

Analysis by Federal Voting Intention

 

Aug 12/13,
2013

ALP

L-NP

Greens

Others

Can’t say

 

%

%

%

%

%

%

Rudd

46

95

12

73

49

28

Abbott

43

2

78

4

21

11

Rudd lead

3

93

(66)

69

28

17

Neither/ Can’t say

11

3

10

23

30

61

TOTAL

100

100

100

100

100

100


Approval of Leaders – Kevin Rudd v Tony Abbott

Prime Minister: Kevin Rudd

Electors were asked: “Do you APPROVE or DISAPPROVE of the way Mr. Rudd is handling his job as Prime Minister?”

 

Prime Minister Gillard

PM Rudd

 

Mar 8-10,

2011

Mar 16/17,

2011

Jan 17/18,

2012

Sep 17-20,

2012

Nov 27-29,

2012

June 11/12,

2013

July 16/17,
2013

Aug 12/13,
2013

 

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

Approve

38

40

34

40

42

27

45

40

Disapprove

51

47

54

51

48

65

40

49

Approve - Disapprove

(13)

(7)

(20)

(11)

(6)

(38)

5

(9)

Can’t say

11

13

12

9

10

8

15

11

TOTAL

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

100


 

Electors 18+

Analysis by Sex & Age

 

Aug 12/13,
2013

Men

Women

18-24

25-34

35-49

50+

 

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

Approve

40

43

37

 43

48

42

35

Disapprove

49

48

50

38

36

48

57

Approve - Disapprove

(9)

(5)

(13)

5

12

(6)

(22)

Can’t say

11

9

13

19

16

10

9

TOTAL

100

100

100

100

100

100

100


 

Electors 18+

Analysis by Federal Voting Intention

 

Aug 12/13,
2013

ALP

L-NP

Greens

Others

Can’t say

 

%

%

%

%

%

%

Approve

40

84

14

46

35

19

Disapprove

49

11

76

36

31

56

Approve - Disapprove

(9)

73

(62)

10

4

(37)

Can’t say

11

5

10

18

34

25

TOTAL

100

100

100

100

100

100


Opposition Leader: Tony Abbott

Electors were asked: “Do you APPROVE or DISAPPROVE of the way Mr. Abbott is handling his job as Leader of the Opposition?”

Tony Abbott as Opposition Leader

 

Mar 8-10,

2011

Mar 16/17,

2011

Jan 17/18,

2012

Sep 17-20,

2012

Nov 27-29,

2012

June 11/12,

2013

July 16/17,
2013

Aug 12/13,
2013

 

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

Approve

42

37

36

32

28

41

38

42

Disapprove

48

54

56

60

63

51

54

48

Approve - Disapprove

(6)

(17)

(20)

(28)

(35)

(10)

(16)

(6)

Can’t say

10

9

8

8

9

8

8

10

TOTAL

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

100


 

Electors 18+

Analysis by Sex & Age

 

Aug 12/13,
2013

Men

Women

18-24

25-34

35-49

50+

 

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

Approve

42

44

39

38

37

39

46

Disapprove

48

47

48

38

50

57

43

Approve - Disapprove

(6)

(3)

(9)

-

(13)

(18)

3

Can’t say

10

9

13

24

13

4

11

TOTAL

100

100

100

100

100

100

100


 

Electors 18+

Analysis by Federal Voting Intention

 

Aug 12/13,
2013

ALP

L-NP

Greens

Others

Can’t say

 

%

%

%

%

%

%

Approve

42

6

73

8

19

32

Disapprove

48

85

20

74

62

26

Approve - Disapprove

(6)

(79)

53

(66)

(43)

6

Can’t say

10

9

7

18

19

42

TOTAL

100

100

100

100

100

100



Margin of Error

The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. The following table gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. The figures are approximate and for general guidance only, and assume a simple random sample. 

Sample Size

Percentage Estimate

 

40%-60%

25% or 75%

10% or 90%

5% or 95%

500

±4.5

±3.9

±2.7

±1.9


For further information:

Gary Morgan:       Office +61 3 9224 5213   Mobile +61 411 129 094

Michele Levine:    Office +61 3 9224 5215   Mobile +61 411 129 093

The Morgan Poll is conducted by the ONLY Australian and New Zealand member of the Gallup International Association.

No other public opinion poll taken in Australia has this qualification.