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L-NP (51%) takes the lead over ALP (49%) with only 3 weeks to go

Finding No. 5115 - This multi-mode Morgan Poll on Federal voting intention was conducted over the last few days via Face-to-Face, Internet and SMS interviewing, August 16-18, 2013 with an Australia-wide cross-section of 4,515 Australian electors aged 18+, of all electors surveyed 0.5% (down 0.5%) did not name a party.

Last weekend (August 16-18, 2013) with only three weeks to go until the Federal Election, the L-NP has taken the lead – L-NP 51% cf. ALP 49% on a two-party preferred basis. Just one week ago, before the first Leaders Debate the Morgan Poll showed the ALP and L-NP equal on 50%.

The ALP primary vote is 36.5% (unchanged), behind the L-NP primary vote at 44.5% (up 0.5%).

Among the minor parties Greens support is 9.5% (down 1%) and support for Independents/ Others is 9.5% (up 0.5%) – including within that support for Katter’s Australian Party of 1% and support for the Palmer United Party of 1%.

The Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating has risen in the past week – up 3pts to 104. Now 42.5% (up 2%) of Australians say Australia is ‘heading in the right direction’ and 38.5% (down 1%) say Australia is ‘heading in the wrong direction’.

If a Federal Election were held today the L-NP would be heading for a narrow victory according to this weekend’s multi-mode Morgan Poll on Federal voting intention with an Australia-wide cross-section of 4,515 Australian electors aged 18+. The Morgan Poll surveys a significantly larger sample (including people who only use a mobile phone) than any other public opinion poll.

For the Poll Nerds! Calculation of 2PP vote is based on how preferences for minor parties are allocated:

The Morgan Poll allocates preferences of minor party voters based on how electors surveyed say they will vote: ALP (49%) cf. L-NP (51%). When the Morgan Poll allocates preferences by how Australian electors gave their preferences at the last Federal election – the method used by Newspoll, Fairfax Nielsen and Galaxy – the Morgan Poll shows a clear lead for the L-NP (52%, up 0.5%) cf. ALP (48%, down 0.5%).

Although not everyone votes ‘the card’, how the preferences of minor parties are allocated on Election Day will depend on the ‘deals’ that are done by various parties and the ‘cards’.

Analysis by Gender

Analysis by Gender shows Women favouring the ALP (51.5%, down 0.5%) cf. L-NP (48.5%, up 0.5%) on a two party preferred basis and Men even more heavily favouring the L-NP 53.5% (up 1.5%) cf. ALP 46.5% (down 1.5%).

Gary Morgan says:

“Today the L-NP is just in front – L-NP 51% cf. ALP 49%. A special telephone Morgan Poll conducted mid-week only days after the Leaders Debate showed the L-NP well ahead (L-NP 57% cf. ALP 43%). Although telephone polls tend to be biased towards the L-NP (some pollsters overcome this bias by weighting the results by ‘past vote’), it is likely that the L-NP gained ground with the debate and in the immediate aftermath in which Rudd was attacked for using notes and then lost some of the gains with Opposition Leader Tony Abbott’s ‘sex appeal’ comment and the Coalition’s refusal to explain how they would balance the Budget.

“This Federal Election is very different to the last election. Financial issues like Cost of living, High taxes and the Economy are much more important (29%) compared to (17%) before the last election. The Environment has fallen to almost a non-issue (7%, compared to 17% before the last election).

“Although the L-NP is traditionally seen as better for ‘Managing the Economy’, they will not win this issue until they can gain the trust of the electorate that they will navigate the country through difficult economic times even though they have not yet provided detailed policy costings.

“Kevin Rudd must win this week’s Town Hall debate in Queensland to regain momentum lost in the past week. The Roy Morgan Reactor results analysed by voting preference will be shown live during the debate on www.roymorgan.com.”


Electors were asked: “If an election for the House of Representatives were held today — which party would receive your first preference?”

Visit the Roy Morgan Online Store to browse our range of Voter Profiles by electorate, detailed Voting Intention Demographics Reports and Most important Political Issue Reports (all 150 electorates ranked by an issue). Contact us to for a free 2-week-trial of our weekly Federal Election Voting Intention report (offer valid till 22 August 2013).

Finding No. 5115 - This multi-mode Morgan Poll on Federal voting intention was conducted over the last few days via Face-to-Face, Internet and SMS interviewing, August 16-18, 2013 with an Australia-wide cross-section of 4,515 Australian electors aged 18+, of all electors surveyed 0.5% (down 0.5%) did not name a party.


For further information:

Contact

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Gary Morgan:

+61 3 9224 5213

+61 411 129 094

Michele Levine:

+61 3 9224 5215

+61 411 129 093


ANALYSIS BY SEX

MEN

 

PRIMARY VOTE

 

 

July
26-28, 2013

August
2-4, 2013

August
9-11, 2013

August
16-18, 2013

% Change
this week

 

%

%

%

%

%

ALP

37.5

36

35

36

+1

L-NP

43.5 (2)

45.5 (2)

47 (2.5)

47.5 (3.5)

+0.5

Greens

8

7.5

9.5

8

-1.5

Ind. /Other

11

11

8.5

8.5

-

TOTAL

100

100

100

100

 

 

TWO-PARTY PREFERRED

 

ALP

49.5

48

48

46.5

-1.5

L-NP

50.5

52

52

53.5

+1.5

TOTAL

100

100

100

100

 

Sample size

1,804

1,650

1,866

2,289

 

WOMEN

 

PRIMARY VOTE

 

 

July
26-28, 2013

August
2-4, 2013

August
9-11, 2013

August
16-18, 2013

% Change
this week

 

%

%

%

%

%

ALP

39.5

40

37.5

37

-0.5

L-NP

40 (3)

40.5 (2)

41 (3)

41.5 (3)

+0.5

Greens

12.5

10.5

11.5

11.5

-

Ind. /Other

8

9

10

10

-

TOTAL

100

100

100

100

 

 

TWO-PARTY PREFERRED

 

ALP

54

52

52

51.5

-0.5

L-NP

46

48

48

48.5

+0.5

TOTAL

100

100

100

100

 

Sample size

1,771

1,676

1,970

2,226

 


ANALYSIS BY CITIES/ REGIONS

CAPITAL CITIES

 

PRIMARY VOTE

 

 

July
26-28, 2013

August
2-4, 2013

August
9-11, 2013

August
16-18, 2013

% Change
this week

 

%

%

%

%

%

ALP

39.5

39.5

36.5

36.5

-

L-NP

42 (1)

41.5 (0.5)

42.5 (0.5)

44.5 (1)

+2

Greens

10.5

10.5

11.5

10

-1.5

Ind. /Other

8

8.5

9.5

9

-0.5

TOTAL

100

100

100

100

 

 

TWO-PARTY PREFERRED

 

ALP

53

52.5

51

49.5

-1.5

L-NP

47

47.5

49

50.5

+1.5

TOTAL

100

100

100

100

 

Sample size

2,133

1,999

2,332

2,659

 

COUNTRY AREAS 

 

PRIMARY VOTE

 

 

July
26-28, 2013

August
2-4, 2013

August
9-11, 2013

August
16-18, 2013

% Change
this week

 

%

%

%

%

%

ALP

37

36.5

36.5

36

-0.5

L-NP

41 (5)

44.5 (5)

46 (7)

44.5 (7)

-1.5

Greens

10

7.5

8.5

8.5

-

Ind. /Other

12

11.5

9

11

+2

TOTAL

100

100

100

100

 

 

TWO-PARTY PREFERRED

 

ALP

50.5

46.5

48.5

48.5

-

L-NP

49.5

53.5

51.5

51.5

-

TOTAL

100

100

100

100

 

Sample size

1,442

1,327

1,504

1,856

 


ANALYSIS BY STATE

NEW SOUTH WALES

 

PRIMARY VOTE

 

 

July
26-28, 2013

August
2-4, 2013

August
9-11, 2013

August
16-18, 2013

% Change
this week

 

%

%

%

%

%

ALP

40

40.5

36.5

37.5

+1

L-NP

43 (3.5)

42.5 (4)

44.5 (4)

45.5 (4)

+1

Greens

8.5

8

11

8

-3

Ind. /Other

8.5

9

8

9

+1

TOTAL

100

100

100

100

100

 

TWO-PARTY PREFERRED

 

ALP

50.5

52

50

49

-1

L-NP

49.5

48

50

51

+1

TOTAL

100

100

100

100

 

Sample size

1,092

1,059

1,200

1,389

 

 

VICTORIA

 

PRIMARY VOTE

 

 

July
26-28, 2013

August
2-4, 2013

August
9-11, 2013

August
16-18, 2013

% Change
this week

 

%

%

%

%

%

ALP

38

38.5

36

36

-

L-NP

38.5 (2)

39.5 (1.5)

42 (3.5)

44.5 (3)

+2.5

Greens

13.5

13

12.5

11.5

-1

Ind. /Other

10

9

9.5

8

-1.5

TOTAL

100

100

100

100

 

 

TWO-PARTY PREFERRED

 

ALP

56

53.5

52

49.5

-2.5

L-NP

44

46.5

48

50.5

+2.5

TOTAL

100

100

100

100

 

Sample size

911

840

942

1,118

 


QUEENSLAND

 

PRIMARY VOTE

 

 

July
26-28, 2013

August
2-4, 2013

August
9-11, 2013

August
16-18, 2013

% Change
this week

 

%

%

%

%

%

ALP

35.5

36

38.5

35.5

-3

LNP

45.5

46.5

44.5

45

+0.5

Greens

9

6

8

8

-

Ind. /Other

10

11.5

9

11.5

+2.5

TOTAL

100

100

100

100

 

 

TWO-PARTY PREFERRED

 

ALP

47

45

50

47

-3

LNP

53

55

50

53

+3

TOTAL

100

100

100

100

 

Sample size

683

650

743

876

 

WESTERN AUSTRALIA

 

PRIMARY VOTE

 

 

July
26-28, 2013

August
2-4, 2013

August
9-11, 2013

August
16-18, 2013

% Change
this week

 

%

%

%

%

%

ALP

35.5

33.5

31

35.5

+4.5

L-NP

46 (4.5)

48.5 (2)

47.5 (5)

46 (5.5)

-1.5

Greens

9.5

10

10.5

8

-2.5

Ind. /Other

9

8

11

10.5

-0.5

TOTAL

100

100

100

100

 

 

TWO-PARTY PREFERRED

 

ALP

48

41.5

45

46

+1

L-NP

52

58.5

55

54

-1

TOTAL

100

100

100

100

 

Sample size

322

279

375

394

 


SOUTH AUSTRALIA

 

PRIMARY VOTE

 

 

July
26-28, 2013

August
2-4, 2013

August
9-11, 2013

August
16-18, 2013

% Change
this week

 

%

%

%

%

%

ALP

40

30.5

35.5

33.5

-2

L-NP

38 (0.5)

44.5 (0.5)

45 (1)

39.5 (0.5)

-5.5

Greens

10

9.5

8

14.5

+6.5

Ind. /Other

12

15.5

11.5

12.5

+1

TOTAL

100

100

100

100

 

 

TWO-PARTY PREFERRED

 

ALP

54

47.5

47.5

52.5

+5

L-NP

46

52.5

52.5

47.5

-5

TOTAL

100

100

100

100

 

Sample size

273

232

314

361

 

TASMANIA*

 

PRIMARY VOTE

 

 

July
26-28, 2013

August
2-4, 2013

August
9-11, 2013

August
16-18, 2013

% Change
this week

 

%

%

%

%

%

ALP

43.5

50

41

38.5

-2.5

L-NP

38

37

37

40 (1)

+3

Greens

9

6.5

7

10

+3

Ind. /Other

9.5

6.5

15

11.5

-3.5

TOTAL

100

100

100

100

 

 

TWO-PARTY PREFERRED

 

ALP

56.5

59

56.5

56.5

-

L-NP

43.5

41

43.5

43.5

-

TOTAL

100

100

100

100

 

Sample size

152

128

136

193

 

*Please note. The small sample size in Tasmania means the Tasmanian figures should be treated with a degree of caution on their own. The figures are primarily used as part of a larger sample.


ANALYSIS BY AGE

18-24

 

PRIMARY VOTE

 

 

July
26-28, 2013

August
2-4, 2013

August
9-11, 2013

August
16-18, 2013

% Change
this week

 

%

%

%

%

%

ALP

40.5

37

38.5

34.5

-4

L-NP

28 (1)

29 (0.5)

31.5 (1)

31 (2.5)

-0.5

Greens

17.5

16

18

18.5

+0.5

Ind. /Other

14

18

12

16

+4

TOTAL

100

100

100

100

 

 

TWO-PARTY PREFERRED

 

ALP

62

57

63.5

59.5

-4

L-NP

38

43

36.5

40.5

+4

TOTAL

100

100

100

100

 

Sample size

231

236

249

290

 

 

25-34

 

PRIMARY VOTE

 

 

July
26-28, 2013

 

August
2-4, 2013

August
9-11, 2013

August
16-18, 2013

% Change
this week

 

%

%

%

%

%

ALP

40.5

43

41

41.5

+0.5

L-NP

36.5 (1.5)

31 (1)

32.5 (1.5)

35 (3.5)

+2.5

Greens

16.5

14

17

13.5

-3.5

Ind. /Other

6.5

12

9.5

10

+0.5

TOTAL

100

100

100

100

 

 

TWO-PARTY PREFERRED

 

ALP

58.5

60

61.5

58.5

-3

L-NP

41.5

40

38.5

41.5

+3

TOTAL

100

100

100

100

 

Sample size

477

430

524

628

 


35-49

 

PRIMARY VOTE

 

 

July
26-28, 2013

August
2-4, 2013

August
9-11, 2013

August
16-18, 2013

% Change
this week

 

%

%

%

%

%

ALP

38

37.5

35

37.5

+2.5

L-NP

38.5 (1.5)

42.5 (3)

43 (3)

42.5 (2)

-0.5

Greens

12

11.5

11.5

11

-0.5

Ind. /Other

11.5

8.5

10.5

9

-1.5

TOTAL

100

100

100

100

 

 

TWO-PARTY PREFERRED

 

ALP

53.5

50.5

49.5

51.5

+2

L-NP

46.5

49.5

50.5

48.5

-2

TOTAL

100

100

100

100

 

Sample size

885

837

961

1,138

 

50-64

 

PRIMARY VOTE

 

 

July
26-28, 2013

August
2-4, 2013

August
9-11, 2013

August
16-18, 2013

% Change
this week

 

%

%

%

%

%

ALP

38.5

37

37

35.5

-1.5

L-NP

44 (2)

47 (2.5)

46.5 (3.5)

47.5 (3.5)

+1

Greens

7

6

8

7

-1

Ind. /Other

10.5

10

8.5

10

+1.5

TOTAL

100

100

100

100

 

 

TWO-PARTY PREFERRED

 

ALP

50.5

47

47

46

-1

L-NP

49.5

53

53

54

+1

TOTAL

100

100

100

100

 

Sample size

1,170

1,041

1,178

1,433

 


65+

 

PRIMARY VOTE

 

 

July
26-28, 2013

August
2-4, 2013

August
9-11, 2013

August
16-18, 2013

% Change
this week

 

%

%

%

%

%

ALP

36.5

37

33

33.5

+0.5

L-NP

53.5 (4.5)

53 (3)

56 (4.5)

57 (5)

+1

Greens

4.5

3.5

4.5

3.5

-1

Ind. /Other

5.5

6.5

6.5

6

-0.5

TOTAL

100

100

100

100

 

 

TWO-PARTY PREFERRED

 

ALP

43

43

40.5

45

+4.5

L-NP

57

57

59.5

55

-4.5

TOTAL

100

100

100

100

 

Sample size

812

782

924

1,026

 

TOTAL

 

PRIMARY VOTE

 

 

July
26-28, 2013

August
2-4, 2013

August
9-11, 2013

August
16-18, 2013

% Change
this week

 

%

%

%

%

%

ALP

38.5

38

36.5

36.5

-

L-NP

41.5 (2.5)

43 (2)

44 (3)

44.5

+0.5

Greens

10.5

9.5

10.5

9.5

-1

Ind. /Other

9.5

9.5

9.

9.5

+0.5

TOTAL

100

100

100

100

 

 

TWO-PARTY PREFERRED

 

ALP

52

50

50

49

-1

L-NP

48

50

50

51

+1

TOTAL

100

100

100

100

 

Sample size

3,575

3,326

3,836

4,515

 


Data Tables


Morgan Poll on Federal Voting Intention - August 19, 2013

Roy Morgan GCR


Margin of Error

The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. The following table gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. The figures are approximate and for general guidance only, and assume a simple random sample. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.

Sample Size

Percentage Estimate

40%-60%

25% or 75%

10% or 90%

5% or 95%

500

±4.5

±3.9

±2.7

±1.9

1,000

±3.2

±2.7

±1.9

±1.4

1,500

±2.6

±2.2

±1.5

±1.1

2,000

±2.2

±1.9

±1.3

±1.0