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L-NP set to win Federal Election with only 2 weeks to go

Finding No. 5130 - This multi-mode Morgan Poll on Federal voting intention was conducted over the last few days via Face-to-Face, Internet and SMS interviewing, August 23-25, 2013 with an Australia-wide cross-section of 3,419 Australian electors aged 18+, of all electors surveyed 0.5% (unchanged) did not name a party.

Last weekend (August 23-25, 2013) with only two weeks to go until the Federal Election, the L-NP has the lead – L-NP 51.5% (up 0.5%) cf. ALP 48.5% (down 0.5%) on a two-party preferred basis.

The ALP primary vote is 34.5% (down 2%), behind the L-NP primary vote at 45% (up 0.5%).

Among the minor parties Greens support is 11% (up 1.5%) and support for Independents/ Others is 9.5% (unchanged) – including within that support for the Palmer United Party of 1.5% and support for Katter’s Australian Party of 1%.

The Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating is virtually unchanged in the past week – up 0.5pts to 104.5. Now 43.5% (up 1%) of Australians say Australia is ‘heading in the right direction’ and 39% (up 0.5%) say Australia is ‘heading in the wrong direction’.

If a Federal Election were held today the L-NP would be heading for a narrow victory according to this weekend’s multi-mode Morgan Poll on Federal voting intention with an Australia-wide cross-section of 3,419 Australian electors aged 18+. The Morgan Poll surveys a significantly larger sample (including people who only use a mobile phone) than any other public opinion poll.

For the Poll Nerds! Calculation of 2PP vote is based on how preferences for minor parties are allocated:

The Morgan Poll allocates preferences of minor party voters based on how electors surveyed say they will vote: ALP (48.5%) cf. L-NP (51.5%). When the Morgan Poll allocates preferences by how Australian electors gave their preferences at the last Federal election – the method used by Newspoll, Fairfax Nielsen and Galaxy – the Morgan Poll shows a clear lead for the L-NP (52.5%, up 0.5%) cf. ALP (47.5%, down 0.5%).

Although not everyone votes ‘the card’, how the preferences of minor parties are allocated on Election Day will depend on the ‘deals’ that are done by various parties and the ‘cards’.

Analysis by Gender

Analysis by Gender shows Women favouring the ALP (50.5%, down 1%) cf. L-NP (49.5%, up 1%) on a two party preferred basis and Men unchanged in the past week with the L-NP 53.5% (unchanged) cf. ALP 46.5% (unchanged).

Gary Morgan says:

“The L-NP (51.5%, up 0.5%) has increased its lead over the ALP (48.5%, down 0.5%) on a two-party preferred basis with only two weeks to go until the Federal Election.

“The mid-week ‘people’s debate’ in Brisbane appeared to have little impact on the campaign. Many analysts scored the debate as a draw, and the most notable moment in the debate came when Opposition Leader Tony Abbott asked rhetorically of the audience, ‘Does this guy ever shut-up’, while Prime Minister Kevin Rudd was answering a question.

“Both leaders have agreed to a further debate to take place this Wednesday night at the Rooty Hill RSL club in Western Sydney. A close analysis of the Morgan Poll results since Kevin Rudd took over as Prime Minister in late June shows the L-NP stands a good chance of picking up the marginal Western Sydney ALP electorates of Greenway (held by 0.9%), Lindsay (1.1%), McMahon (7.8%) and Reid (2.7%).

“Since the initial Rudd ‘honeymoon’ in early July – in which the ALP two-party preferred vote increased from 44.5% under Julia Gillard to 54.5% (July 5-7, 2013), the ALP two-party preferred vote has either decreased or remained the same in each of the subsequent seven multi-mode Morgan Polls conducted.

“For the ALP and Kevin Rudd to have any chance of reversing the momentum which is heavily favouring the L-NP, Rudd must score a decisive victory in this week’s Town Hall debate in Western Sydney. The Roy Morgan Reactor closely analysed the results of last week’s debate held in Brisbane and can be viewed here.”


Electors were asked: “If an election for the House of Representatives were held today — which party would receive your first preference?”

Visit the Roy Morgan Online Store to browse our range of Voter Profiles by electorate, detailed Voting Intention Demographics Reports and Most important Political Issue Reports (all 150 electorates ranked by an issue).

Finding No. 5130 - This multi-mode Morgan Poll on Federal voting intention was conducted over the last few days via Face-to-Face, Internet and SMS interviewing, August 23-25, 2013 with an Australia-wide cross-section of 3,419 Australian electors aged 18+, of all electors surveyed 0.5% (unchanged) did not name a party.


For further information:

Contact

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Gary Morgan:

+61 3 9224 5213

+61 411 129 094

Michele Levine:

+61 3 9224 5215

+61 411 129 093



ANALYSIS BY SEX

MEN

 

PRIMARY VOTE

 

 

August
2-4, 2013

August
9-11, 2013

August
16-18, 2013

August
23-25, 2013

% Change
this week

 

%

%

%

%

%

ALP

36

35

36

33.5

-2.5

L-NP

45.5 (2)

47 (2.5)

47.5 (3.5)

47 (2.5)

-0.5

Greens

7.5

9.5

8

9.5

+1.5

Ind. /Other

11

8.5

8.5

10

+1.5

TOTAL

100

100

100

100

 

 

TWO-PARTY PREFERRED

 

ALP

48

48

46.5

46.5

-

L-NP

52

52

53.5

53.5

-

TOTAL

100

100

100

100

 

Sample size

1,650

1,866

2,289

1,695

 

WOMEN

 

PRIMARY VOTE

 

 

August
2-4, 2013

August
9-11, 2013

August
16-18, 2013

August
23-25, 2013

% Change
this week

 

%

%

%

%

%

ALP

40

37.5

37

35.5

-1.5

L-NP

40.5 (2)

41 (3)

41.5 (3)

42.5 (2.5)

+1

Greens

10.5

11.5

11.5

13

+1.5

Ind. /Other

9

10

10

9

-1

TOTAL

100

100

100

100

 

 

TWO-PARTY PREFERRED

 

ALP

52

52

51.5

50.5

-1

L-NP

48

48

48.5

49.5

+1

TOTAL

100

100

100

100

 

Sample size

1,676

1,970

2,226

1,724

 


ANALYSIS BY CITIES/ REGIONS

CAPITAL CITIES

 

PRIMARY VOTE

 

 

August
2-4, 2013

August
9-11, 2013

August
16-18, 2013

August
23-25, 2013

% Change
this week

 

%

%

%

%

%

ALP

39.5

36.5

36.5

35

-1.5

L-NP

41.5 (0.5)

42.5 (0.5)

44.5 (1)

44.5 (0.5)

-

Greens

10.5

11.5

10

12

+2

Ind. /Other

8.5

9.5

9

8.5

-0.5

TOTAL

100

100

100

100

 

 

TWO-PARTY PREFERRED

 

ALP

52.5

51

49.5

49

-0.5

L-NP

47.5

49

50.5

51

+0.5

TOTAL

100

100

100

100

 

Sample size

1,999

2,332

2,659

2,001

 

COUNTRY AREAS 

 

PRIMARY VOTE

 

 

August
2-4, 2013

August
9-11, 2013

August
16-18, 2013

August
23-25, 2013

% Change
this week

 

%

%

%

%

%

ALP

36.5

36.5

36

34

-2

L-NP

44.5 (5)

46 (7)

44.5 (7)

44.5 (5.5)

-

Greens

7.5

8.5

8.5

10

+1.5

Ind. /Other

11.5

9

11

11.5

+0.5

TOTAL

100

100

100

100

 

 

TWO-PARTY PREFERRED

 

ALP

46.5

48.5

48.5

48

-0.5

L-NP

53.5

51.5

51.5

52

+0.5

TOTAL

100

100

100

100

 

Sample size

1,327

1,504

1,856

1,418

 


ANALYSIS BY STATE

NEW SOUTH WALES

 

PRIMARY VOTE

 

 

August
2-4, 2013

August
9-11, 2013

August
16-18, 2013

August
23-25, 2013

% Change
this week

 

%

%

%

%

%

ALP

40.5

36.5

37.5

34.5

-3

L-NP

42.5 (4)

44.5 (4)

45.5 (4)

46.5 (4)

+1

Greens

8

11

8

9.5

+1.5

Ind. /Other

9

8

9

9.5

+0.5

TOTAL

100

100

100

100

 

 

TWO-PARTY PREFERRED

 

ALP

52

50

49

47

-2

L-NP

48

50

51

53

+2

TOTAL

100

100

100

100

 

Sample size

1,059

1,200

1,389

1,049

 

 

VICTORIA

 

PRIMARY VOTE

 

 

August
2-4, 2013

August
9-11, 2013

August
16-18, 2013

August
23-25, 2013

% Change
this week

 

%

%

%

%

%

ALP

38.5

36

36

35

-1

L-NP

39.5 (1.5)

42 (3.5)

44.5 (3)

43 (2)

-1.5

Greens

13

12.5

11.5

14.5

+3

Ind. /Other

9

9.5

8

7.5

-0.5

TOTAL

100

100

100

100

 

 

TWO-PARTY PREFERRED

 

ALP

53.5

52

49.5

51.5

+2

L-NP

46.5

48

50.5

48.5

-2

TOTAL

100

100

100

100

 

Sample size

840

942

1,118

858

 


QUEENSLAND

 

PRIMARY VOTE

 

 

August
2-4, 2013

August
9-11, 2013

August
16-18, 2013

August
23-25, 2013

% Change
this week

 

%

%

%

%

%

ALP

36

38.5

35.5

36

+0.5

LNP

46.5

44.5

45

44 (1.5)

-1

Greens

6

8

8

8

-

Ind. /Other

11.5

9

11.5

12

+0.5

TOTAL

100

100

100

100

 

 

TWO-PARTY PREFERRED

 

ALP

45

50

47

49

+2

LNP

55

50

53

51

-2

TOTAL

100

100

100

100

 

Sample size

650

743

876

661

 

WESTERN AUSTRALIA

 

PRIMARY VOTE

 

 

August
2-4, 2013

August
9-11, 2013

August
16-18, 2013

August
23-25, 2013

% Change
this week

 

%

%

%

%

%

ALP

33.5

31

35.5

29

-6.5

L-NP

48.5 (2)

47.5 (5)

46 (5.5)

50.5 (2.5)

+4.5

Greens

10

10.5

8

11.5

+3.5

Ind. /Other

8

11

10.5

9

-1.5

TOTAL

100

100

100

100

 

 

TWO-PARTY PREFERRED

 

ALP

41.5

45

46

41.5

-4.5

L-NP

58.5

55

54

58.5

+4.5

TOTAL

100

100

100

100

 

Sample size

279

375

394

290

 


SOUTH AUSTRALIA

 

PRIMARY VOTE

 

 

August
2-4, 2013

August
9-11, 2013

August
16-18, 2013

August
23-25, 2013

% Change
this week

 

%

%

%

%

%

ALP

30.5

35.5

33.5

31

-2.5

L-NP

44.5 (0.5)

45 (1)

39.5 (0.5)

44

+4.5

Greens

9.5

8

14.5

10

-4.5

Ind. /Other

15.5

11.5

12.5

15

+2.5

TOTAL

100

100

100

100

 

 

TWO-PARTY PREFERRED

 

ALP

47.5

47.5

52.5

46

-6.5

L-NP

52.5

52.5

47.5

54

+6.5

TOTAL

100

100

100

100

 

Sample size

232

314

361

278

 

TASMANIA*

 

PRIMARY VOTE

 

 

August
2-4, 2013

August
9-11, 2013

August
16-18, 2013

August
23-25, 2013

% Change
this week

 

%

%

%

%

%

ALP

50

41

38.5

41

+2.5

L-NP

37

37

40 (1)

36.5

-3.5

Greens

6.5

7

10

12.5

+2.5

Ind. /Other

6.5

15

11.5

10

-1.5

TOTAL

100

100

100

100

 

 

TWO-PARTY PREFERRED

 

ALP

59

56.5

56.5

55.5

-1

L-NP

41

43.5

43.5

44.5

+1

TOTAL

100

100

100

100

 

Sample size

128

136

193

105

 

*Please note. The small sample size in Tasmania means the Tasmanian figures should be treated with a degree of caution on their own. The figures are primarily used as part of a larger sample.


ANALYSIS BY AGE

18-24

 

PRIMARY VOTE

 

 

August
2-4, 2013

August
9-11, 2013

August
16-18, 2013

August
23-25, 2013

% Change
this week

 

%

%

%

%

%

ALP

37

38.5

34.5

34.5

-

L-NP

29 (0.5)

31.5 (1)

31 (2.5)

32

+1

Greens

16

18

18.5

23

+4.5

Ind. /Other

18

12

16

10.5

-5.5

TOTAL

100

100

100

100

 

 

TWO-PARTY PREFERRED

 

ALP

57

63.5

59.5

59

-0.5

L-NP

43

36.5

40.5

41

+0.5

TOTAL

100

100

100

100

 

Sample size

236

249

290

210

 

 

25-34

 

PRIMARY VOTE

 

 

August
2-4, 2013

August
9-11, 2013

August
16-18, 2013

August
23-25, 2013

% Change
this week

 

%

%

%

%

%

ALP

43

41

41.5

37.5

-4

L-NP

31 (1)

32.5 (1.5)

35 (3.5)

36.5 (2)

+1.5

Greens

14

17

13.5

15

+1.5

Ind. /Other

12

9.5

10

11

+1

TOTAL

100

100

100

100

 

 

TWO-PARTY PREFERRED

 

ALP

60

61.5

58.5

56.5

-2

L-NP

40

38.5

41.5

43.5

+2

TOTAL

100

100

100

100

 

Sample size

430

524

628

453

 


35-49

 

PRIMARY VOTE

 

 

August
2-4, 2013

August
9-11, 2013

August
16-18, 2013

August
23-25, 2013

% Change
this week

 

%

%

%

%

%

ALP

37.5

35

37.5

34.5

-3

L-NP

42.5 (3)

43 (3)

42.5 (2)

43 (2.5)

+0.5

Greens

11.5

11.5

11

12.5

+1.5

Ind. /Other

8.5

10.5

9

10

+1

TOTAL

100

100

100

100

 

 

TWO-PARTY PREFERRED

 

ALP

50.5

49.5

51.5

50.5

-1

L-NP

49.5

50.5

48.5

49.5

+1

TOTAL

100

100

100

100

 

Sample size

837

961

1,138

842

 

50-64

 

PRIMARY VOTE

 

 

August
2-4, 2013

August
9-11, 2013

August
16-18, 2013

August
23-25, 2013

% Change
this week

 

%

%

%

%

%

ALP

37

37

35.5

33.5

-2

L-NP

47 (2.5)

46.5 (3.5)

47.5 (3.5)

47 (2.5)

-0.5

Greens

6

8

7

9

+2

Ind. /Other

10

8.5

10

10.5

+0.5

TOTAL

100

100

100

100

 

 

TWO-PARTY PREFERRED

 

ALP

47

47

46

45.5

-0.5

L-NP

53

53

54

54.5

+0.5

TOTAL

100

100

100

100

 

Sample size

1,041

1,178

1,433

1,069

 


65+

 

PRIMARY VOTE

 

 

August
2-4, 2013

August
9-11, 2013

August
16-18, 2013

August
23-25, 2013

% Change
this week

 

%

%

%

%

%

ALP

37

33

33.5

33.5

-

L-NP

53 (3)

56 (4.5)

57 (5)

56 (3.5)

-1

Greens

3.5

4.5

3.5

3.5

-

Ind. /Other

6.5

6.5

6

7

+134.5

TOTAL

100

100

100

100

 

 

TWO-PARTY PREFERRED

 

ALP

43

40.5

45

39.5

-5.5

L-NP

57

59.5

55

60.5

+5.5

TOTAL

100

100

100

100

 

Sample size

782

924

1,026

845

 

TOTAL

 

PRIMARY VOTE

 

 

August
2-4, 2013

August
9-11, 2013

August
16-18, 2013

August
23-25, 2013

% Change
this week

 

%

%

%

%

%

ALP

38

36.5

36.5

34.5

-2

L-NP

43 (2)

44 (3)

44.5

45 (2.5)

+0.5

Greens

9.5

10.5

9.5

11

+1.5

Ind. /Other

9.5

9.

9.5

9.5

-

TOTAL

100

100

100

100

 

 

TWO-PARTY PREFERRED

 

ALP

50

50

49

48.5

-0.5

L-NP

50

50

51

51.5

+0.5

TOTAL

100

100

100

100

 

Sample size

3,326

3,836

4,515

3,419

 



Data Tables


Morgan Poll - Two-Party Preferred Voting Intention - August 26, 2013

Roy Morgan GCR


Margin of Error

The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. The following table gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. The figures are approximate and for general guidance only, and assume a simple random sample. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.

Sample Size

Percentage Estimate

40%-60%

25% or 75%

10% or 90%

5% or 95%

500

±4.5

±3.9

±2.7

±1.9

1,000

±3.2

±2.7

±1.9

±1.4

1,500

±2.6

±2.2

±1.5

±1.1

2,000

±2.2

±1.9

±1.3

±1.0