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Labour/ Greens 45.5% (down 2.5%) just ahead of National 44% (unchanged) as Labour set to elect new Leader in mid-September

This latest New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll on voting intention was conducted by telephone – both landline and mobile telephone, with a NZ wide cross-section of 819 electors from August 12-25, 2013. Of all electors surveyed 5% (up 0.5%) didn’t name a party.

Today’s New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll shows a Labour/ Greens alliance (45.5%, down 2.5% since July 29-August 11, 2013) holding a narrow lead over John Key’s National 44% (unchanged). Support for Key’s Coalition partners has changed little with the Maori Party 2% (unchanged), ACT NZ 0.5% (unchanged) and United Future 0.5% (up 0.5%).

Support for Labour has fallen to 31.5% (down 2.5%); Greens are 14% (unchanged), New Zealand First 5.5% (up 2.5%), Mana Party 0.5% (unchanged), Conservative Party of NZ 1% (unchanged) and Others 0.5% (down 0.5%).

If a National Election were held now the latest NZ Roy Morgan Poll shows that the election result would be too close to call with New Zealand First likely in a position to determine the Government.

The latest NZ Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating is virtually unchanged at 127.5 (down 0.5%) with 58% (unchanged) of New Zealanders saying New Zealand is ‘heading in the right direction’ compared to 30.5% (up 0.5%) that say New Zealand is ‘heading in the wrong direction’.

Gary Morgan says:

“Today’s New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll shows National (44%, unchanged) well ahead of the main Opposition Labour Party (31.5%, down 2.5%) – now in the process of selecting a new leader after the resignation of David Shearer last Thursday (August 22, 2013). However, a potential Labour/ Greens alliance (45.5%, down 2.5%) still maintains a slight edge over National.

“There are three candidates standing for the Labour Party Leadership – Deputy Leader Grant Robertson, former leadership contender and MP for New Lynn David Cunliffe and List MP Shane Jones. The new leader of the Labour Party is set to be announced in just over two weeks time on Sunday September 15, 2013.”


Electors were asked: “If a New Zealand Election were held today which party would receive your party vote?”

This latest New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll on voting intention was conducted by telephone – both landline and mobile telephone, with a NZ wide cross-section of 819 electors from August 12-25, 2013. Of all electors surveyed 5% (up 0.5%) didn’t name a party.

New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll - August 30, 2013

New Zealand GCR


For further information:

Gary Morgan
Office +61 3 9224 5213
Mobile +61 411 129 094

Michele Levine
Office +61 3 9224 5215
Mobile +61 411 129 093


Margin of Error

The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. The following table gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. The figures are approximate and for general guidance only, and assume a simple random sample.

Sample Size

Percentage Estimate

 

40%-60%

25% or 75%

10% or 90%

5% or 95%

1,000

±3.2

±2.7

±1.9

±1.4

1,500

±2.5

±2.2

±1.5

±1.1