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Swing to L-NP continues. L-NP set to win Federal Election with only 1 week to go. Palmer Party jumps to 4% - 6.5% in Queensland!

Finding No. 5148 - This multi-mode Morgan Poll on Federal voting intention was conducted over the last few nights via Telephone and Internet, August 28-29, 2013 with an Australia-wide cross-section of 1,599 Australian electors aged 18+, of all electors surveyed 2% (up 1.5%) did not name a party.

With only one week to go until the Federal Election, the swing to the L-NP has continued with the L-NP increasing its lead – L-NP 53% (up 1.5%) cf. ALP 47% (down 1.5%) on a two-party preferred basis. This is the first poll conducted since Wednesday night’s third Leaders’ Debate in Rooty Hill, NSW – which the Roy Morgan Reactor showed was won by Prime Minister Kevin Rudd – although relatively few Australians actually watched the Debate.

The ALP primary vote is 30.5% (down 4%), behind the L-NP primary vote at 44% (down 1%).

Among the minor parties Greens support is 12% (up 1%) and support for Independents/ Others is 13.5% (up 4%) – including within that support for the Palmer United Party has jumped to 4% (6.5% in Queensland) after significant media publicity following entertaining and provocative TV and radio interviews while support for Katter’s Australian Party is 1%.

The Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating is now at 99.0 down 5.5pts. Now 42% (down 1.5%) of Australians say Australia is ‘heading in the right direction’ and 43% (up 4%) say Australia is ‘heading in the wrong direction’.

If a Federal Election were held today the L-NP would be heading for victory according to the multi-mode Morgan Poll over the last two nights (August 28-29, 2013) on Federal voting intention with an Australia-wide cross-section of 1,599 Australian electors aged 18+. The Morgan Poll surveys a larger sample (including people who only use a mobile phone) than any other public opinion poll.

For the Poll Nerds! Calculation of 2PP vote is based on how preferences for minor parties are allocated:

The Morgan Poll allocates preferences of minor party voters based on how electors surveyed say they will vote: ALP (47%) cf. L-NP (53%). When the Morgan Poll allocates preferences by how Australian electors gave their preferences at the last Federal election – the method used by Newspoll, Fairfax Nielsen and Galaxy – the Morgan Poll shows a clear lead for the L-NP (54%, up 1.5%) cf. ALP (46%, down 1.5%).

Although not everyone votes ‘the card’, how the preferences of minor parties are allocated on Election Day will depend on the ‘deals’ that are done by various parties and the ‘cards’.

Analysis by Gender

Analysis by Gender shows Women favouring the ALP (50.5%, unchanged) cf. L-NP (49.5%, unchanged) on a two party preferred basis and Men favouring the L-NP 56.5% (up 3%) cf. ALP 43.5% (down 3%).

Gary Morgan says:

“Today’s Morgan Poll shows the L-NP (53%, up 1.5% since last weekend) increasing their two-party preferred lead over the ALP (47%, down 1.5%) with only a week to go before Australians head to the polls on September 7. In further good news for Opposition Leader Tony Abbott, a special telephone Morgan Poll conducted in conjunction shows Abbott (44%, up 1% since August 12/13, 2013) now ahead of Prime Minister Kevin Rudd (43%, down 3%) as ‘Better PM’ for the first time since Abbott became Opposition Leader.

“Although the Roy Morgan Reactor showed Prime Minister Rudd (56%) scored a decisive victory over Abbott (23%) in Wednesday night’s third, and final, Leaders’ Debate in Rooty Hill, NSW, that victory appears too little too late for the Rudd Government.

“Today’s unprecedented statement by Treasury Secretary Martin Parkinson, Finance Secretary David Tune and Parliamentary Budget Office head Phil Bowen that the Government was wrong to use their figures to claim the Opposition had a $10 billion ‘hole’ in their costings has undermined the Government’s attack on the Coalition’s spending plans – an area the Government felt it could exploit given the Coalition has not yet released their costings.

“In addition, the news today that the Independent Commission Against Corruption (ICAC) is set to press charges against former NSW State Labor Minister Ian McDonald, and former CFMEU official John Maitland, for corruption has topped off a bad week for the Rudd Government.

“The Coalition is set to claim victory at next week’s Federal Election, and the only question remaining is whether the ALP can close the gap over the last week or whether the Opposition will continue increasing their lead through to polling day. The Morgan Poll has shown an increasing degree of momentum for the L-NP since the election was called in early August.”

 

Electors were asked: “If an election for the House of Representatives were held today — which party would receive your first preference?”

Visit the Roy Morgan Online Store to browse our range of Voter Profiles by electorate, detailed Voting Intention Demographics Reports and Most important Political Issue Reports (all 150 electorates ranked by an issue).

Finding No. 5148 - This multi-mode Morgan Poll on Federal voting intention was conducted over the last few nights via Telephone and Internet, August 28-29, 2013 with an Australia-wide cross-section of 1,599 Australian electors aged 18+, of all electors surveyed 2% (up 1.5%) did not name a party.

 

MEN – PRIMARY VOTE

 

Multi-Mode

 

August
9-11, 2013

August
16-18, 2013

August
23-25, 2013

August
28-29, 2013

 

%

%

%

%

ALP

35

36

33.5

29.5

L-NP

47 (2.5)

47.5 (3.5)

47 (2.5)

47.5 (2)

Greens

9.5

8

9.5

8.5

Ind. /Other

8.5

8.5

10

14.5

TOTAL

100

100

100

100

MEN – TWO-PARTY PREFERRED

ALP

48

46.5

46.5

43.5

L-NP

52

53.5

53.5

56.5

TOTAL

100

100

100

100

 

WOMEN – PRIMARY VOTE

 

Multi-Mode

 

August
9-11, 2013

August
16-18, 2013

August
23-25, 2013

August
28-29, 2013

 

%

%

%

%

ALP

37.5

37

35.5

32

L-NP

41 (3)

41.5 (3)

42.5 (2.5)

41 (3.5)

Greens

11.5

11.5

13

15.5

Ind. /Other

10

10

9

11.5

TOTAL

100

100

100

100

 

ALP

52

51.5

50.5

50.5

L-NP

48

48.5

49.5

49.5

TOTAL

100

100

100

100


For further information:

Contact

Office

Mobile

Gary Morgan:

+61 3 9224 5213

+61 411 129 094

Michele Levine:

+61 3 9224 5215

+61 411 129 093


Data Tables


Morgan Poll on Federal Voting Intention - August 30, 2013

Roy Morgan GCR


Margin of Error

The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. The following table gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. The figures are approximate and for general guidance only, and assume a simple random sample. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.

Sample Size

Percentage Estimate

40%-60%

25% or 75%

10% or 90%

5% or 95%

500

±4.5

±3.9

±2.7

±1.9

1,000

±3.2

±2.7

±1.9

±1.4

1,500

±2.6

±2.2

±1.5

±1.1

2,000

±2.2

±1.9

±1.3

±1.0