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Electors say Tony Abbott (44%) is ‘Better PM’ than Kevin Rudd (43%) for the first time. But neither Leader has positive job approval

This special telephone Morgan Poll was conducted over the last two nights this week of August 28/29, 2013, with an Australia-wide cross section of 574 electors.

Opposition Leader Tony Abbott (44%, up 1% since August 12/13, 2013) now narrowly leads Prime Minister Kevin Rudd (43%, down 3%) as ‘Better Prime Minister’ according to a special telephone Morgan Poll conducted over the last two nights (August 28/29, 2013).

Job Performance – Approve/Disapprove

Australian electors clearly disapprove of Prime Minister Kevin Rudd’s handling of his job as Prime Minister with 53% (up 4%) disapproving compared to 36% (down 4%) approving while 11% (unchanged) can’t say.

Australian electors have similar view of Opposition Leader Tony Abbott’s handling of the job as Opposition Leader, 51% (up 3%) disapprove, 41% (down 1%) approve and 8% (down 2%) can’t say.

Analysis by Gender

Analysis by gender shows Rudd has lost support from Men and Women since August 12/13, 2013 while Abbott has gained in support from Men. Men now prefer Abbott (49%, up 6%) cf. Rudd (41%, down 6%) and Women prefer Rudd (46%, up 1%) cf. Abbott (39%, down 3%).

Now more Men (55%, up 7%) and Women (51%, up 1%) disapprove of Prime Minister Kevin Rudd’s handling of the job than approve (Men: 37%, down 6% and Women: 35%, down 2%). More Men (49%, up 5%) approve of Tony Abbott’s handling of the job as Opposition Leader than disapprove (46%, down 1%) while more Women (55%, up 7%) disapprove than approve (35%, down 4%).

Wednesday Night Leaders Debate – The Reactor shows a win to PM Kevin Rudd

Despite Prime Minister Kevin Rudd trailing Opposition Leader Tony Abbott as ‘Better PM’ for the first time over the last two nights, the Roy Morgan Reactor shows Rudd scored an important victory in Wednesday night’s third, and final, Leaders’ Debate in Rooty Hill in Sydney.

The second-by-second reactions of approximately 700 Australians to the third Leaders’ Debate were broadcast live in a Network Ten News Special on ONE HD. At the end of the debate, the reactors were asked who won. The results were a strong victory for Kevin Rudd (56%) cf. Tony Abbott (23%). 12% thought it was a draw and 9% were undecided.

Further details on the results of Wednesday’s nights Leaders’ Debate can be viewed here.

Michele Levine says:

“Today’s special telephone Morgan Poll shows Opposition Leader Tony Abbott (44%, up 1% since August 12/13) now ahead of Prime Minister Kevin Rudd (43%, down 3%) as the ‘Better PM’ for the first time since becoming Opposition Leader back in December 2009.

“However, neither leader is rated positively for their job performance – 53% (up 4%) disapprove of Rudd’s performance as Prime Minister compared to only 36% (down 4%) that approve while 51% (up 3%) disapprove of Abbott’s performance as Opposition Leader compared to only 41% (down 1%) that approve.”

For the Poll nerds

The multi-mode Morgan Poll shows Two-Party preferred: L-NP 53% cf. ALP 47%. The primary vote is L-NP 44%, ALP 30.5%, Greens 12% and Independent/Others 13.5%. Of those surveyed 2% did not name a party.

This special telephone Morgan Poll was conducted over the last two nights this week of August 28/29, 2013, with an Australia-wide cross section of 574 electors.

Visit the Roy Morgan Online Store to browse our range of Voter Profiles by electorate, detailed Voting Intention Demographics Reports and Most important Political Issue Reports (all 150 electorates ranked by an issue).


Kevin Rudd vs. Tony Abbott – By Gender

Job Approval Prime Minister & Opposition Leader: Rudd vs. Abbott

Electors were asked: “Thinking of Mr. Kevin Rudd and Mr. Tony Abbott. In your opinion, who would make the better Prime Minister – Mr. Rudd or Mr. Abbott?”

Approval of Leaders – Kevin Rudd vs. Tony Abbott

 

Electors 18+

Men

Women

 

July 16/17,
2013

Aug 12/13,
2013

Aug 28/29,
2013

July 16/17,
2013

Aug 12/13,
2013

Aug 28/29,
2013

July 16/17,
2013

Aug 12/13,
2013

Aug 28/29,
2013

 

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

Rudd

52

46

43

50

47

41

53

45

46

Abbott

36

43

44

37

43

49

36

42

39

Rudd lead

16

3

(1)

13

4

(8)

17

3

7

Other/ Neither

12

11

13

13

10

10

11

13

15

TOTAL

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

100


Prime Minister: Kevin Rudd

Electors were asked: “Do you APPROVE or DISAPPROVE of the way Mr. Rudd is handling his job as PM?”

Analysis by Sex (Approve/ Disapprove – Kevin Rudd)

 

Electors 18+

Men

Women

 

July 16/17,
2013

Aug 12/13,
2013

Aug 28/29,
2013

July 16/17,
2013

Aug 12/13,
2013

Aug 28/29,
2013

July 16/17,
2013

Aug 12/13,
2013

Aug 28/29,
2013

 

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

Approve

45

40

36

49

43

37

41

37

35

Disapprove

40

49

53

40

48

55

40

50

51

Approve –
Disapprove

5

(9)

(17)

9

(5)

(18)

1

(13)

(16)

Can’t say

15

11

11

11

9

8

19

13

14

TOTAL

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

100


Opposition Leader: Tony Abbott

Electors were asked: “Do you APPROVE or DISAPPROVE of the way Mr. Abbott is handling his job as Leader of the Opposition?”

Analysis by Sex (Approve/ Disapprove – Tony Abbott)

 

Electors 18+

Men

Women

 

July 16/17,
2013

Aug 12/13,
2013

Aug 28/29,
2013

July 16/17,
2013

Aug 12/13,
2013

Aug 28/29,
2013

July 16/17,
2013

Aug 12/13,
2013

Aug 28/29,
2013

 

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

Approve

38

42

41

43

44

49

33

39

35

Disapprove

54

48

51

48

47

46

60

48

55

Approve –
Disapprove

(16)

(6)

(10)

(5)

(3)

(3)

(27)

(9)

(20)

Can’t say

8

10

8

9

9

5

7

13

10

TOTAL

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

100


Better Prime Minister: Rudd v Abbott

Electors were asked: “Thinking of Mr. Kevin Rudd and Mr. Tony Abbott. In your opinion, who would make the better Prime Minister – Mr. Rudd or Mr. Abbott?” 

 

Rudd v Abbott

 

Prime Minister Kevin Rudd

Prime Minister
Julia Gillard

Prime Minister Kevin Rudd

 

Jan 13/14,
2010

May 4/5,

2010

May 12/13,

2010

Mar 16/17,

2011

June 11/12,
2013

July 16/17,
2013

Aug 12/13,
2013

Aug 28/29,
2013

 

 

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

 

Rudd

61

53

49

59

50

52

46

43

 

Abbott

25

32

37

32

43

36

43

44

 

Rudd lead

36

21

12

27

7

16

3

(1)

 

Other/ Can’t say

14

15

14

9

7

12

11

13

 

TOTAL

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

 


 

Electors 18+

Analysis by Sex & Age

 

Aug 28/29,
2013

Men

Women

18-24

25-34

35-49

50+

 

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

Rudd

43

41

46

66

51

41

36

Abbott

44

49

39

30

35

44

51

Rudd lead

(1)

(8)

7

36

16

(3)

(15)

Other/ Can’t say

13

10

15

4

14

15

13

TOTAL

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

 

 

Electors 18+

Analysis by Federal Voting Intention

 

Aug 28/29,
2013

ALP

L-NP

Greens

Others

Can’t say

 

%

%

%

%

%

%

Rudd

43

94

7

82

28

21

Abbott

44

2

83

11

43

9

Rudd lead

(1)

92

(76)

71

(15)

12

Other/ Can’t say

13

4

10

7

29

70

TOTAL

100

100

100

100

100

100


Approval of Leaders – Kevin Rudd v Tony Abbott

Prime Minister: Kevin Rudd

Electors were asked: “Do you APPROVE or DISAPPROVE of the way Mr. Rudd is handling his job as Prime Minister?”

 

Prime Minister Gillard

Prime Minister Kevin Rudd

 

 

Mar 16/17,

2011

Jan 17/18,

2012

Sep 17-20,

2012

Nov 27-29,

2012

June 11/12,

2013

July 16/17,
2013

Aug 12/13,
2013

Aug 28/29,
2013

 

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

Approve

40

34

40

42

27

45

40

36

Disapprove

47

54

51

48

65

40

49

53

Approve - Disapprove

(7)

(20)

(11)

(6)

(38)

5

(9)

(17)

Can’t say

13

12

9

10

8

15

11

11

TOTAL

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

100


 

Electors 18+

Analysis by Sex & Age

 

Aug 28/29,
2013

Men

Women

18-24

25-34

35-49

50+

 

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

Approve

36

37

35

65

47

32

26

Disapprove

53

55

51

22

37

57

65

Approve - Disapprove

(17)

(18)

(16)

43

10

(25)

(39)

Can’t say

11

8

14

13

16

11

9

TOTAL

100

100

100

100

100

100

100


 

Electors 18+

Analysis by Federal Voting Intention

 

Aug 28/29,
2013

ALP

L-NP

Greens

Others

Can’t say

 

%

%

%

%

%

%

Approve

36

77

9

46

24

27

Disapprove

53

13

82

24

68

45

Approve - Disapprove

(17)

64

(73)

22

(44)

(18)

Can’t say

11

10

9

30

8

28

TOTAL

100

100

100

100

100

100


Opposition Leader: Tony Abbott

Electors were asked: “Do you APPROVE or DISAPPROVE of the way Mr. Abbott is handling his job as Leader of the Opposition?”

Tony Abbott as Opposition Leader

 

Mar 16/17,

2011

Jan 17/18,

2012

Sep 17-20,

2012

Nov 27-29,

2012

June 11/12,

2013

July 16/17,
2013

Aug 12/13,
2013

Aug 28/29,
2013

 

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

Approve

37

36

32

28

41

38

42

41

Disapprove

54

56

60

63

51

54

48

51

Approve - Disapprove

(17)

(20)

(28)

(35)

(10)

(16)

(6)

(10)

Can’t say

9

8

8

9

8

8

10

8

TOTAL

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

100



 

Electors 18+

Analysis by Sex & Age

 

Aug 28/29,
2013

Men

Women

18-24

25-34

35-49

50+

 

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

Approve

41

49

35

28

43

40

45

Disapprove

51

46

55

64

52

53

46

Approve - Disapprove

(10)

3

(20)

(36)

(9)

(13)

(1)

Can’t say

8

5

10

8

5

7

9

TOTAL

100

100

100

100

100

100

100



 

Electors 18+

Analysis by Federal Voting Intention

 

Aug 28/29,
2013

ALP

L-NP

Greens

Others

Can’t say

 

%

%

%

%

%

%

Approve

41

13

74

7

34

9

Disapprove

51

83

17

85

58

70

Approve - Disapprove

(10)

(70)

57

(78)

(24)

(61)

Can’t say

8

4

9

8

8

21

TOTAL

100

100

100

100

100

100



Margin of Error

The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. The following table gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. The figures are approximate and for general guidance only, and assume a simple random sample.

 

Sample Size

Percentage Estimate

 

40%-60%

25% or 75%

10% or 90%

5% or 95%

500

±4.5

±3.9

±2.7

±1.9


For further information:

Gary Morgan:   Office +61 3 9224 5213   Mobile +61 411 129 094

Michele Levine: Office +61 3 9224 5215   Mobile +61 411 129 093