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Labour/ Greens 47.5% (up 2%) now well ahead of Nationals 41% (down 3%) before Labour elects new Leader on Sunday September 15

This latest New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll on voting intention was conducted by telephone – both landline and mobile telephone, with a NZ wide cross-section of 828 electors from August 26 – September 8, 2013. Of all electors surveyed a high 6% (up 1%) didn’t name a party.

Today’s New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll shows a Labour/ Greens alliance (47.5%, up 2% since August 12-25, 2013) holding its biggest lead since April 1-14, 2013 over John Key’s National Party 41% (down 3%). Support for Key’s Coalition partners has changed little with the Maori Party 1% (down 1%), ACT NZ 1% (up 0.5%) and United Future 0.5% (unchanged).

Support for Labour has risen to 32.5% (up 1%); Greens are 15% (up 1%) – their highest level of support since May 2012, New Zealand First 6.5% (up 1%), Mana Party 0.5% (unchanged), Conservative Party of NZ 1.5% (up 0.5%) and Others 0.5% (unchanged).

If a National Election were held now the latest NZ Roy Morgan Poll shows that a Labour/ Greens alliance would win easily.

The latest NZ Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating is at its lowest since April 1-14, 2013, 117 (down 10.5pts) with 52.5% (down 5.5%) of New Zealanders saying New Zealand is ‘heading in the right direction’ compared to 35.5% (up 5%) that say New Zealand is ‘heading in the wrong direction’.

Gary Morgan says:

“Today’s New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll shows a Labour/Greens alliance (47.5%, up 2%) now well ahead of National (41%, down 3%) as Labour gets set to elect its new leader this Sunday.

“Over the past three weeks Labour Leadership contenders Shane Jones, Grant Robertson and David Cunliffe have made their cases for the Labour Party’s top job. Today’s New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll shows that whoever emerges as the new Opposition Leader on Sunday stands a good chance of becoming New Zealand’s next Prime Minister as the head of a left-leaning alliance.

The Morgan Poll (L-NP 53.5% cf. ALP 46.5%) was the most accurate in predicting the result of the recent Australian Federal Election (L-NP 53.3% cf. ALP 46.7%) and the only polling company to predict 91 seats for the L-NP which it now looks like it will be.”

Electors were asked: “If a New Zealand Election were held today which party would receive your party vote?”

This latest New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll on voting intention was conducted by telephone – both landline and mobile telephone, with a NZ wide cross-section of 828 electors from August 26 – September 8, 2013. Of all electors surveyed a high 6% (up 1%) didn’t name a party.

New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll - New Zealand Voting Intention - September 13, 2013

Roy Morgan GCR


For further information:

Gary Morgan
Office +61 3 9224 5213
Mobile +61 411 129 094

Michele Levine
Office +61 3 9224 5215
Mobile +61 411 129 093


Margin of Error

The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. The following table gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. The figures are approximate and for general guidance only, and assume a simple random sample.

Sample Size

Percentage Estimate

 

40%-60%

25% or 75%

10% or 90%

5% or 95%

1,000

±3.2

±2.7

±1.9

±1.4

1,500

±2.5

±2.2

±1.5

±1.1