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L-NP set to win Federal Election and over 90 seats. High vote for Palmer Party (6.5% - 10.5% in Queensland), helps the L-NP vote

Finding No. 5169 - This multi-mode Morgan Poll on Federal voting intention was conducted over the last three nights via SMS, Online and telephone interviewing on September 4-6, 2013 with an Australia-wide cross-section of 4,937 Australian electors aged 18+, of all electors surveyed 1.5% (up 1.0%) did not name a party.

The L-NP (53.5%, up 3.6% since the 2010 Federal Election) is set to win a clear victory in today’s Federal Election, leading the ALP (46.5%, down 3.6%) on a two-party preferred basis according to the multi-mode Morgan Poll conducted over the last three days (September 4-6, 2013) on Federal voting intention with an Australia-wide cross-section of 4,937 Australian electors aged 18+.

The ALP primary vote is 31.5% (down 6.5%), well behind the L-NP primary vote at 44% (up 0.4%).

Among the minor parties Greens support is 10.5% (down 1.3%) and support for Independents/Others is 14% (up 7.4%) – including within that support for the Palmer United Party at 6.5% (10.5% in Queensland).

This week’s rise in support for PUP comes after significant media publicity for PUP Leader Clive Palmer. Support for Family First/Christian Democrats is 2% and Katter’s Australian Party is 1%. The Morgan Poll is the only poll that measures support for individual minor parties.

The Morgan Poll surveys a larger sample (including people who only use a mobile phone) than any other public opinion poll.

For the Poll Nerds! Calculation of 2PP vote is based on how preferences for minor parties are allocated:

The Morgan Poll allocates preferences of minor party voters based on how electors surveyed say they will vote: L-NP (53.5%) cf. ALP (46.5%). When the Morgan Poll allocates preferences by how Australian electors gave their preferences at the last Federal election – the method used by Newspoll (L-NP 54% cf. ALP 46%), Fairfax Nielsen (L-NP 54% cf. ALP 46%) and Galaxy (L-NP 53% cf. ALP 47%) – the Morgan Poll shows a lead for the L-NP (54.5%) cf. ALP (45.5%).

However, if electors follow the how-to-vote cards for the Palmer United Party (PUP) which preference the L-NP, the final two-party preferred result will be closer to L-NP (55.5%) cf. ALP (44.5%).

Analysis by Gender

Analysis by Gender shows Women now favouring the L-NP (51.5%) cf. ALP (48.5%) on a two party preferred basis and Men favouring the L-NP (55.5%) cf. ALP (44.5%).

Gary Morgan says:

“The L-NP is set to win a clear victory at today’s Federal Election – winning over 90 seats in the House of Representatives. The L-NP (53.5%, up 1.5% in a week) has increased their lead over the ALP (46.5%, down 1.5%) in each week of the campaign and will enjoy a comfortable majority in the new Parliament.

“The swing to the L-NP has strengthened in the last week and the high vote for the Palmer United Party (6.5% nationally and 10.5% in Queensland) will boost the L-NP further. Analysis of voting patterns shows many former ALP voters are now supporting PUP and if these electors follow the PUP’s how to vote cards the two-party preferred vote will favour the L-NP even further: L-NP (55.5%) cf. ALP (44.5%).

“The wild card in this election has turned out to be Clive Palmer and the late surge in support for his Palmer United Party. If most of those electors ‘vote the PUP card’ so preferences flow back to the L-NP, the election will be a ‘1975 landslide’ to the Coalition - L-NP (55.7%) cf. ALP (44.3%).”

Electors were asked: “In Saturday’s Federal Election which party will receive your first preference?”

Visit the Roy Morgan Online Store to browse our range of Voter Profiles by electorate, detailed Voting Intention Demographics Reports and Most important Political Issue Reports (all 150 electorates ranked by an issue).

Finding No. 5169 - This multi-mode Morgan Poll on Federal voting intention was conducted over the last three nights via SMS, Online and telephone interviewing on September 4-6, 2013 with an Australia-wide cross-section of 4,937 Australian electors aged 18+, of all electors surveyed 1.5% (up 1.0%) did not name a party.

For further information:

Contact

Office

Mobile

Gary Morgan:

+61 3 9224 5213

+61 411 129 094

Michele Levine:

+61 3 9224 5215

+61 411 129 093



Data Tables


Morgan Poll - Federal Voting Intention - September 7, 2013


AUSTRALIA (150 SEATS)

Pre 2013 Federal Election

 

ALP

L-NP*

GREENS

OTHERS**

TOTAL

NSW

25

20

-

3

48

VIC

22

14

1

-

37

QLD

8

20

-

2

30

WA

3

12*

-

-

15

SA

6

5

-

-

11

TAS

4

-

-

1

5

ACT

2

-

-

-

2

NT

1

1

-

-

2

AUSTRALIA

71

72

1

6

150

*L-NP includes the seat of O’Connor held by the WA Nationals. ** Includes the seat of Dobell, held by former
 ALP MP Craig Thomson and the seat of Fisher held by former LNP MP Peter Slipper.

Predicted 2013 Federal Election Result

 

ALP

L-NP*

GREENS

OTHERS

TOTAL

NSW

19

29

-

-

48

VIC

19

17

1

-

37

QLD

3

26

-

1

28

WA

3

12

-

-

15

SA

6

5

-

-

11

TAS

4

-

-

1

5

ACT

2

-

-

-

2

NT

-

2

-

-

2

AUSTRALIA

56

91

1

2

150


NEW SOUTH WALES (48 SEATS)

ALP Hold

(19)

ALP Gain

(0)

L-NP Hold

(20)

L-NP Gain

(9)

 

 

 

 

Barton

 

Bennelong

Banks

Blaxland

Berowra

Dobell

Charlton

Bradfield

Greenway

Chifley

Calare

Lindsay

Cunningham

Cook

Lyne

Eden-Monaro

Cowper

New England

Fowler

Farrer

Parramatta

Grayndler

Gilmore

Reid

Hunter

Hughes

Robertson

Kingsford Smith

Hume

McMahon

Macarthur

Newcastle

Mackellar

Page

Macquarie

Richmond

Mitchell

Shortland

North Sydney

Sydney

Parkes

Throsby

Paterson

Watson

Riverina

Werriwa

Warringah

Wentworth

VICTORIA (37 SEATS)

ALP Hold

ALP Gain

Greens

L-NP Hold

L-NP Gain

(19)

(0)

(1)

(14)

(3)

Ballarat

Melbourne

Aston

Corangamite

Batman

Casey

Deakin

Bendigo

Dunkley

La Trobe

Bruce

Flinders

 

Calwell

Gippsland

 

Chisholm

Goldstein

 

Corio

Higgins

 

Gellibrand

Indi

 

Gorton

Kooyong

 

Holt

Mallee

 

Hotham

McMillan

 

Isaacs

Menzies

 

Jagajaga

Murray

 

Lalor

Wannon

 

Maribyrnong

 

McEwen

 

Melbourne Ports

 

Scullin

 

Wills

 


QUEENSLAND (30 SEATS)

ALP Hold

ALP Gain

LNP Hold

LNP Gain

Independents

(3)

(0)

(20)

(6)

(1)

Griffith

Bonner

Blair

Kennedy

Oxley

Bowman

Capricornia

Rankin

Brisbane

Fisher

Dawson

Lilley

Dickson

Moreton

Fadden

Petrie

Fairfax

Forde

Flynn

Groom

 

Herbert

Hinkler

Leichhardt

Longman

Maranoa

McPherson

Moncrieff

Ryan

Wide Bay

Wright


WESTERN AUSTRALIA (15 SEATS)

ALP Hold

ALP Gain

L-NP Hold

L-NP Gain

(3)

(0)

(12)

(0)

Brand

Canning

Fremantle

Cowan

 

Perth

Curtin

 

Durack

Forrest

Hasluck

Moore

O'Connor

Pearce

Stirling

Swan

Tangney

 

SOUTH AUSTRALIA (11 SEATS)

ALP Hold

ALP Gain

L-NP Hold

L-NP Gain

(6)

(0)

(5)

(0)

Adelaide

 

Barker

Hindmarsh

Boothby

Kingston

Grey

Makin

Mayo

Port Adelaide

Sturt

Wakefield

TASMANIA (5 SEATS)

ALP Hold

ALP Gain

L-NP Hold

L-NP Gain

Independent

(4)

(0)

(0)

(0)

(1)

Bass

Denison

Braddon

Franklin

Lyons

 

NORTHERN TERRITORY (2 SEATS)

ALP Hold

ALP Gain

L-NP Hold

L-NP Gain

(0)

(0)

(1)

(1)

Solomon

Lingiari

AUSTRALIAN CAPITAL TERRITORY (2 SEATS)

ALP Hold

ALP Gain

L-NP Hold

L-NP Gain

(2)

(0)

(0)

(0)

Canberra

Fraser


 

ANALYSIS BY STATE

 

NEW SOUTH WALES

 

PRIMARY VOTE

 

 

2010 Federal Election

September 4-6, 2013

% Change
this Federal Election

 

%

%

%

ALP

37.3

32.5

-4.8

L-NP

44.6 (7.9)

43 (5.5)

-1.6

Greens

10.2

9.5

-0.7

PUP

0.0

6.5

+6.5

Ind. /Other

7.9

8.5

+0.6

TOTAL

100

100

 

 

TWO-PARTY PREFERRED

 

ALP

48.8

48.5

-0.3

L-NP

51.2

51.5

+0.3

TOTAL

100

100

 

Sample size

4,303,081

1,456

 

 

VICTORIA

 

PRIMARY VOTE

 

 

2010 Federal Election

September 4-6, 2013

% Change
this Federal Election

 

%

%

%

ALP

42.8

30

-12.8

LNP

39.6 (3.2)

41 (2)

+1.4

Greens

12.7

16

+3.3

PUP

0.0

5.5

+5.5

Ind. /Other

4.9

7.5

+2.6

TOTAL

100

100

 

 

TWO-PARTY PREFERRED

 

ALP

55.3

50.5

-4.8

L-NP

44.7

49.5

+4.8

TOTAL

100

100

 

Sample size

3,329,883

1,308

 


QUEENSLAND

 

PRIMARY VOTE

 

 

2010 Federal Election

September 4-6, 2013

% Change
this Federal Election

 

%

%

%

ALP

33.6

30

-3.6

L-NP

47.4

47 (0.5)

-0.4

Greens

10.9

6

-4.9

PUP

0.0

10.5

+10.5

Ind. /Other

8.1

6.5

-1.6

TOTAL

100

100

 

 

TWO-PARTY PREFERRED

 

ALP

44.9

43

-1.9

LNP

55.1

57

+1.9

TOTAL

100

100

 

Sample size

2,521,574

947

 

 

WESTERN AUSTRALIA

 

PRIMARY VOTE

 

 

2010 Federal Election

September 4-6, 2013

% Change
this Federal Election

 

%

%

%

ALP

31.2

27

-4.2

L-NP

50.6 (3.6)

51 (5)

+0.4

Greens

13.1

11.5

-1.6

PUP

0.0

6

+6

Ind. /Other

5.1

4.5

-0.6

TOTAL

100

100

 

 

TWO-PARTY PREFERRED

 

ALP

43.6

41.5

-2.1

L-NP

56.4

58.5

+2.1

TOTAL

100

100

 

Sample size

1,264,968

455

 


SOUTH AUSTRALIA

 

PRIMARY VOTE

 

 

2010 Federal Election

September 4-6, 2013

% Change
this Federal Election

 

%

%

%

ALP

40.7

28.5

-12.2

L-NP

40.2

46 (1)

+5.8

Greens

12.0

10

-2

PUP

0.0

4

+4

Ind. /Other

7.1

11.5

+4.4

TOTAL

100

100

 

 

TWO-PARTY PREFERRED

 

ALP

53.2

44.5

-8.7

L-NP

46.8

55.5

+8.7

TOTAL

100

100

 

Sample size

1,036,514

409

 


TASMANIA*

 

PRIMARY VOTE

 

 

2010 Federal Election

September 4-6, 2013

% Change
this Federal Election

 

%

%

%

ALP

44.0

34

-10

L-NP

33.6

36.5

+2.9

Greens

16.8

15.5

-1.3

PUP

0.0

4.5

+4.5

Ind. /Other

5.6

9.5

+3.9

TOTAL

100

100

 

 

TWO-PARTY PREFERRED

 

ALP

60.6

52.5

-8.1

L-NP

39.4

47.5

+8.1

TOTAL

100

100

 

Sample size

340,943

162

 

 

*Please note. The small sample size in Tasmania means the Tasmanian figures should be treated with a degree of caution on their own. The figures are primarily used as part of a larger sample.

 


ANALYSIS BY CITIES/ REGIONS

 

CAPITAL CITIES

 

PRIMARY VOTE

 

 

August
16-18, 2013

August
23-25, 2013

Aug 31 -
Sep 1, 2013

Sep
4-6, 2013

% Change
this week

 

%

%

%

%

%

ALP

36.5

35

34.5

31.5

-3

L-NP

44.5 (1)

44.5 (0.5)

42 (0.5)

45 (0.5)

+3

Greens

10

12

12.5

12

-0.5

PUP

1

1

3.5

6

+2.5

Ind. /Other

8

7.5

7.5

5.5

-2

TOTAL

100

100

100

100

 

 

TWO-PARTY PREFERRED

 

ALP

49.5

49

49.5

46.5

-3

L-NP

50.5

51

50.5

53.5

+3

TOTAL

100

100

100

100

 

Sample size

2,659

2,001

2,211

2,968

 


COUNTRY AREAS

          

 

PRIMARY VOTE

 

 

August
16-18, 2013

August
23-25, 2013

Aug 31 -
Sep 1, 2013

Sep
4-6, 2013

% Change
this week

 

%

%

%

%

%

ALP

36

34

33.5

31

-2.5

L-NP

44.5 (7)

44.5 (5.5)

45 (6.5)

42 (7)

-3

Greens

8.5

10

8.5

9

+0.5

PUP

1.5

2

5

8

+3

Ind. /Other

9.5

9.5

8

10

+2

TOTAL

100

100

100

100

 

 

TWO-PARTY PREFERRED

 

ALP

48.5

48

45.5

47

+1.5

L-NP

51.5

52

54.5

53

-1.5

TOTAL

100

100

100

100

 

Sample size

1,856

1,418

1,535

1,969

 


ANALYSIS BY STATE

 

NEW SOUTH WALES

 

PRIMARY VOTE

 

 

August
16-18, 2013

August
23-25, 2013

Aug 31 -
Sep 1, 2013

Sep
4-6, 2013

% Change
this week

 

%

%

%

%

%

ALP

37.5

34.5

35

32.5

-2.5

L-NP

45.5 (4)

46.5 (4)

44 (5.5)

43 (5.5)

-1

Greens

8

9.5

10

9.5

-0.5

PUP

1.5

1.5

4

6.5

+2.5

Ind. /Other

7.5

8

7

8.5

+1.5

TOTAL

100

100

100

100

 

 

TWO-PARTY PREFERRED

 

ALP

49

47

47

48.5

+1.5

L-NP

51

53

53

51.5

-1.5

TOTAL

100

100

100

100

 

Sample size

1,389

1,049

1,100

1,456

 

 

VICTORIA

 

PRIMARY VOTE

 

 

August
16-18, 2013

August
23-25, 2013

Aug 31 -
Sep 1, 2013

Sep
4-6, 2013

% Change
this week

 

%

%

%

%

%

ALP

36

35

33.5

30

-3.5

L-NP

44.5 (3)

43 (2)

41.5 (2)

41 (2)

-0.5

Greens

11.5

14.5

14

16

+2

PUP

1

0.5

2.5

5.5

+3

Ind. /Other

7

7

8.5

7.5

-1

TOTAL

100

100

100

100

 

 

TWO-PARTY PREFERRED

 

ALP

49.5

51.5

50.5

50.5

-

L-NP

50.5

48.5

49.5

49.5

-

TOTAL

100

100

100

100

 

Sample size

1,118

858

947

1,308

 


QUEENSLAND

 

PRIMARY VOTE

 

 

August
16-18, 2013

August
23-25, 2013

Aug 31 -
Sep 1, 2013

Sep
4-6, 2013

% Change
this week

 

%

%

%

%

%

ALP

35.5

36

33.5

30

-3.5

LNP

45

44

43.5

47 (0.5)

+3.5

Greens

8

8

7.5

6

-1.5

PUP

1.5

2.5

7.5

10.5

+3

Ind. /Other

10

9.5

8

6.5

-1.5

TOTAL

100

100

100

100

 

 

TWO-PARTY PREFERRED

 

ALP

47

49

46

43

-3

LNP

53

51

54

57

+3

TOTAL

100

100

100

100

 

Sample size

876

661

738

947

 


WESTERN AUSTRALIA

 

PRIMARY VOTE

 

 

August
16-18, 2013

August
23-25, 2013

Aug 31 -
Sep 1, 2013

Sep
4-6, 2013

% Change
this week

 

%

%

%

%

%

ALP

35.5

29

28.5

27

-1.5

L-NP

46 (5.5)

50.5 (2.5)

48.5 (3.5)

51 (5)

+2.5

Greens

8

11.5

13.5

11.5

-2

PUP

0.5

1.5

2.5

6

+3.5

Ind. /Other

10

7.5

7

4.5

-2.5

TOTAL

100

100

100

100

 

 

TWO-PARTY PREFERRED

 

ALP

46

41.5

43

41.5

-1.5

L-NP

54

58.5

57

58.5

+1.5

TOTAL

100

100

100

100

 

Sample size

394

290

339

455

 


SOUTH AUSTRALIA

 

PRIMARY VOTE

 

 

August
16-18, 2013

August
23-25, 2013

Aug 31 -
Sep 1, 2013

Sep
4-6, 2013

% Change
this week

 

%

%

%

%

%

ALP

33.5

31

40

28.5

-11.5

L-NP

39.5 (0.5)

44 (0.5)

38.5

46 (1)

+7.5

Greens

14.5

10

8.5

10

+1.5

PUP

0.5

0.5

1

4

+3

Ind. /Other

12

14.5

12

11.5

-0.5

TOTAL

100

100

100

100

 

 

TWO-PARTY PREFERRED

 

ALP

52.5

46

53

44.5

-8.5

L-NP

47.5

54

47

55.5

+8.5

TOTAL

100

100

100

100

 

Sample size

361

278

306

409

 


TASMANIA*

 

PRIMARY VOTE

 

 

August
16-18, 2013

August
23-25, 2013

Aug 31 -
Sep 1, 2013

Sep
4-6, 2013

% Change
this week

 

%

%

%

%

%

ALP

38.5

41

25.5

34

+8.5

L-NP

40 (1)

36.5

49

36.5

-12.5

Greens

10

12.5

8

15.5

+7.5

PUP

-

1.5

6.5

4.5

-2

Ind. /Other

11.5

8.5

11

9.5

-1.5

TOTAL

100

100

100

100

 

 

TWO-PARTY PREFERRED

 

ALP

56.5

55.5

40.5

52.5

+12

L-NP

43.5

44.5

59.5

47.5

-12

TOTAL

100

100

100

100

 

Sample size

193

105

160

162

 

*Please note. The small sample size in Tasmania means the Tasmanian figures should be treated with a degree of caution on their own. The figures are primarily used as part of a larger sample.


ANALYSIS BY AGE

 

18-24

 

 

PRIMARY VOTE

 

 

August
16-18, 2013

August
23-25, 2013

Aug 31 -
Sep 1, 2013

Sep
4-6, 2013

% Change
this week

 

%

%

%

%

%

ALP

34.5

34.5

38.5

30.5

-8

L-NP

31 (2.5)

32

28.5 (1.5)

33 (3)

+4.5

Greens

18.5

23

18.5

19

+0.5

PUP

2

-

3.5

5.5

+2

Ind. /Other

14

10.5

11

12

+1

TOTAL

100

100

100

100

 

 

TWO-PARTY PREFERRED

 

ALP

59.5

59

63

54.5

-8.5

L-NP

40.5

41

37

45.5

+8.5

TOTAL

100

100

100

100

 

Sample size

290

210

265

332

 

 

25-34

 

 

PRIMARY VOTE

 

 

August
16-18, 2013

August
23-25, 2013

Aug 31 -
Sep 1, 2013

Sep
4-6, 2013

% Change
this week

 

%

%

%

%

%

ALP

41.5

37.5

38.5

33

-5.5

L-NP

35 (3.5)

36.5 (2)

34 (1.5)

33 (2)

-1

Greens

13.5

15

14.5

18

+3.5

PUP

0.5

1

4.5

6.5

+2

Ind. /Other

9.5

10

8.5

9.5

+1

TOTAL

100

100

100

100

 

 

TWO-PARTY PREFERRED

 

ALP

58.5

56.5

57

55.5

-1.5

L-NP

41.5

43.5

43

44.5

+1.5

TOTAL

100

100

100

100

 

Sample size

628

453

492

640

 


35-49

 

 

PRIMARY VOTE

 

 

August
16-18, 2013

August
23-25, 2013

Aug 31 -
Sep 1, 2013

Sep
4-6, 2013

% Change
this week

 

%

%

%

%

%

ALP

37.5

34.5

32.5

32.5

-

L-NP

42.5 (2)

43 (2.5)

43.5 (3)

39.5 (2)

-4

Greens

11

12.5

11.5

11.5

-

PUP

1

1

5.5

8.5

+3

Ind. /Other

8

9

7

8

+1

TOTAL

100

100

100

100

 

 

TWO-PARTY PREFERRED

 

ALP

51.5

50.5

47

50

+3

L-NP

48.5

49.5

53

50

-3

TOTAL

100

100

100

100

 

Sample size

1,138

842

927

1,280

 

50-64

 

 

PRIMARY VOTE

 

 

August
16-18, 2013

August
23-25, 2013

Aug 31 -
Sep 1, 2013

Sep
4-6, 2013

% Change
this week

 

%

%

%

%

%

ALP

35.5

33.5

33

30.5

-2.5

L-NP

47.5 (3.5)

47 (2.5)

46.5 (2.5)

49 (3.5)

+2.5

Greens

7

9

8.5

6.5

-2

PUP

1

2

4.5

7

+2.5

Ind. /Other

9

8.5

7.5

7

-0.5

TOTAL

100

100

100

100

 

 

TWO-PARTY PREFERRED

 

ALP

46

45.5

44

42

-2

L-NP

54

54.5

56

58

+2

TOTAL

100

100

100

100

 

Sample size

1,433

1,069

1,257

1,494

 


65+

 

 

PRIMARY VOTE

 

 

August
16-18, 2013

August
23-25, 2013

Aug 31 -
Sep 1, 2013

Sep
4-6, 2013

% Change
this week

 

%

%

%

%

%

ALP

33.5

33

32.5

28

-4.5

L-NP

57 (5)

56 (3.5)

52.5 (5)

56 (3.5)

+3.5

Greens

3.5

3.5

6.5

6.5

-

PUP

1

1.5

1.5

4

+2.5

Ind. /Other

5

6

7

5.5

-1.5

TOTAL

100

100

100

100

 

 

TWO-PARTY PREFERRED

 

ALP

45

39.5

40.5

38

-2.5

L-NP

55

60.5

59.5

62

+2.5

TOTAL

100

100

100

100

 

Sample size

1,026

845

805

1,191

 

TOTAL

 

 

PRIMARY VOTE

 

 

August
16-18, 2013

August
23-25, 2013

Aug 31 -
Sep 1, 2013

Sep
4-6, 2013

% Change
this week

 

%

%

%

%

%

ALP

36.5

34.5

34

31.5

-2.5

L-NP

44.5

45 (2.5)

43 (3)

44 (3)

+1

Greens

9.5

11

11

10.5

-0.5

PUP

1

1.5

4

6.5

+2.5

Ind. /Other

8.5

8

8

7.5

-0.5

TOTAL

100

100

100

100

 

 

TWO-PARTY PREFERRED

 

ALP

49

48.5

48

46.5

-1.5

L-NP

51

51.5

52

53.5

+1.5

TOTAL

100

100

100

100

 

Sample size

4,515

3,419

3,476

4,937

 

 


 

AUSTRALIA – TOTAL

 

PRIMARY VOTE

 

 

2010 Federal Election

September 4-6, 2013

% Change
this Federal Election

 

%

%

%

ALP

38.0

31.5

-6.5

L-NP

43.6 (3.7)

44 (3)

+0.4

Greens

11.8

10.5

-1.3

PUP

0.0

6.5

+6.5

Ind. /Other

6.6

7.5

+0.9

TOTAL

100

100

 

 

TWO-PARTY PREFERRED

 

ALP

50.1

46.5

-3.6

L-NP

49.9

53.5

+3.6

TOTAL

100

100

 

Sample size

13,131,667

4,937

 


For further information:

Contact

Office

Mobile

Gary Morgan:

+61 3 9224 5213

+61 411 129 094

Michele Levine:

+61 3 9224 5215

+61 411 129 093



Margin of Error

The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. The following table gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. The figures are approximate and for general guidance only, and assume a simple random sample. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.

Sample Size

Percentage Estimate

40%-60%

25% or 75%

10% or 90%

5% or 95%

500

±4.5

±3.9

±2.7

±1.9

1,000

±3.2

±2.7

±1.9

±1.4

1,500

±2.6

±2.2

±1.5

±1.1

2,000

±2.2

±1.9

±1.3

±1.0