Finding No. 5169 - This multi-mode Morgan Poll on Federal voting intention was conducted over the last three nights via SMS, Online and telephone interviewing on September 4-6, 2013 with an Australia-wide cross-section of 4,937 Australian electors aged 18+, of all electors surveyed 1.5% (up 1.0%) did not name a party.
The L-NP (53.5%, up 3.6% since the 2010 Federal Election) is set to win a clear victory in today’s Federal Election, leading the ALP (46.5%, down 3.6%) on a two-party preferred basis according to the multi-mode Morgan Poll conducted over the last three days (September 4-6, 2013) on Federal voting intention with an Australia-wide cross-section of 4,937 Australian electors aged 18+.
The ALP primary vote is 31.5% (down 6.5%), well behind the L-NP primary vote at 44% (up 0.4%).
Among the minor parties Greens support is 10.5% (down 1.3%) and support for Independents/Others is 14% (up 7.4%) – including within that support for the Palmer United Party at 6.5% (10.5% in Queensland).
This week’s rise in support for PUP comes after significant media publicity for PUP Leader Clive Palmer. Support for Family First/Christian Democrats is 2% and Katter’s Australian Party is 1%. The Morgan Poll is the only poll that measures support for individual minor parties.
The Morgan Poll surveys a larger sample (including people who only use a mobile phone) than any other public opinion poll.
For the Poll Nerds! Calculation of 2PP vote is based on how preferences for minor parties are allocated:
The Morgan Poll allocates preferences of minor party voters based on how electors surveyed say they will vote: L-NP (53.5%) cf. ALP (46.5%). When the Morgan Poll allocates preferences by how Australian electors gave their preferences at the last Federal election – the method used by Newspoll (L-NP 54% cf. ALP 46%), Fairfax Nielsen (L-NP 54% cf. ALP 46%) and Galaxy (L-NP 53% cf. ALP 47%) – the Morgan Poll shows a lead for the L-NP (54.5%) cf. ALP (45.5%).
However, if electors follow the how-to-vote cards for the Palmer United Party (PUP) which preference the L-NP, the final two-party preferred result will be closer to L-NP (55.5%) cf. ALP (44.5%).
Analysis by Gender
Analysis by Gender shows Women now favouring the L-NP (51.5%) cf. ALP (48.5%) on a two party preferred basis and Men favouring the L-NP (55.5%) cf. ALP (44.5%).
Gary Morgan says:
“The L-NP is set to win a clear victory at today’s Federal Election – winning over 90 seats in the House of Representatives. The L-NP (53.5%, up 1.5% in a week) has increased their lead over the ALP (46.5%, down 1.5%) in each week of the campaign and will enjoy a comfortable majority in the new Parliament.
“The swing to the L-NP has strengthened in the last week and the high vote for the Palmer United Party (6.5% nationally and 10.5% in Queensland) will boost the L-NP further. Analysis of voting patterns shows many former ALP voters are now supporting PUP and if these electors follow the PUP’s how to vote cards the two-party preferred vote will favour the L-NP even further: L-NP (55.5%) cf. ALP (44.5%).
“The wild card in this election has turned out to be Clive Palmer and the late surge in support for his Palmer United Party. If most of those electors ‘vote the PUP card’ so preferences flow back to the L-NP, the election will be a ‘1975 landslide’ to the Coalition - L-NP (55.7%) cf. ALP (44.3%).”
Electors were asked: “In Saturday’s Federal Election which party will receive your first preference?”
Visit the Roy Morgan Online Store to browse our range of Voter Profiles by electorate, detailed Voting Intention Demographics Reports and Most important Political Issue Reports (all 150 electorates ranked by an issue).
Finding No. 5169 - This multi-mode Morgan Poll on Federal voting intention was conducted over the last three nights via SMS, Online and telephone interviewing on September 4-6, 2013 with an Australia-wide cross-section of 4,937 Australian electors aged 18+, of all electors surveyed 1.5% (up 1.0%) did not name a party.
For further information:
|
Contact
|
Office
|
Mobile
|
|
Gary Morgan:
|
+61 3 9224 5213
|
+61 411 129 094
|
|
Michele Levine:
|
+61 3 9224 5215
|
+61 411 129 093
|
Data Tables
AUSTRALIA (150 SEATS)
Pre 2013 Federal Election
|
|
ALP
|
L-NP*
|
GREENS
|
OTHERS**
|
TOTAL
|
|
NSW
|
25
|
20
|
-
|
3
|
48
|
|
VIC
|
22
|
14
|
1
|
-
|
37
|
|
QLD
|
8
|
20
|
-
|
2
|
30
|
|
WA
|
3
|
12*
|
-
|
-
|
15
|
|
SA
|
6
|
5
|
-
|
-
|
11
|
|
TAS
|
4
|
-
|
-
|
1
|
5
|
|
ACT
|
2
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
2
|
|
NT
|
1
|
1
|
-
|
-
|
2
|
|
AUSTRALIA
|
71
|
72
|
1
|
6
|
150
|
*L-NP includes the seat of O’Connor held by the WA Nationals. ** Includes the seat of Dobell, held by former
ALP MP Craig Thomson and the seat of Fisher held by former LNP MP Peter Slipper.
Predicted 2013 Federal Election Result
|
|
ALP
|
L-NP*
|
GREENS
|
OTHERS
|
TOTAL
|
|
NSW
|
19
|
29
|
-
|
-
|
48
|
|
VIC
|
19
|
17
|
1
|
-
|
37
|
|
QLD
|
3
|
26
|
-
|
1
|
28
|
|
WA
|
3
|
12
|
-
|
-
|
15
|
|
SA
|
6
|
5
|
-
|
-
|
11
|
|
TAS
|
4
|
-
|
-
|
1
|
5
|
|
ACT
|
2
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
2
|
|
NT
|
-
|
2
|
-
|
-
|
2
|
|
AUSTRALIA
|
56
|
91
|
1
|
2
|
150
|
NEW SOUTH WALES (48 SEATS)
|
ALP Hold
(19)
|
ALP Gain
(0)
|
L-NP Hold
(20)
|
L-NP Gain
(9)
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Barton
|
|
Bennelong
|
Banks
|
|
Blaxland
|
|
Berowra
|
Dobell
|
|
Charlton
|
|
Bradfield
|
Greenway
|
|
Chifley
|
|
Calare
|
Lindsay
|
|
Cunningham
|
|
Cook
|
Lyne
|
|
Eden-Monaro
|
|
Cowper
|
New England
|
|
Fowler
|
|
Farrer
|
Parramatta
|
|
Grayndler
|
|
Gilmore
|
Reid
|
|
Hunter
|
|
Hughes
|
Robertson
|
|
Kingsford Smith
|
|
Hume
|
|
|
McMahon
|
|
Macarthur
|
|
|
Newcastle
|
|
Mackellar
|
|
|
Page
|
|
Macquarie
|
|
|
Richmond
|
|
Mitchell
|
|
|
Shortland
|
|
North Sydney
|
|
|
Sydney
|
|
Parkes
|
|
|
Throsby
|
|
Paterson
|
|
|
Watson
|
|
Riverina
|
|
|
Werriwa
|
|
Warringah
|
|
| |
|
Wentworth |
|
VICTORIA (37 SEATS)
|
ALP Hold
|
ALP Gain
|
Greens
|
L-NP Hold
|
L-NP Gain
|
|
(19)
|
(0)
|
(1)
|
(14)
|
(3)
|
|
Ballarat
|
|
Melbourne
|
Aston
|
Corangamite
|
|
Batman
|
|
|
Casey
|
Deakin
|
|
Bendigo
|
|
|
Dunkley
|
La Trobe
|
|
Bruce
|
|
|
Flinders
|
|
|
Calwell
|
|
|
Gippsland
|
|
|
Chisholm
|
|
|
Goldstein
|
|
|
Corio
|
|
|
Higgins
|
|
|
Gellibrand
|
|
|
Indi
|
|
|
Gorton
|
|
|
Kooyong
|
|
|
Holt
|
|
|
Mallee
|
|
|
Hotham
|
|
|
McMillan
|
|
|
Isaacs
|
|
|
Menzies
|
|
|
Jagajaga
|
|
|
Murray
|
|
|
Lalor
|
|
|
Wannon
|
|
|
Maribyrnong
|
|
|
|
|
|
McEwen
|
|
|
|
|
|
Melbourne Ports
|
|
|
|
|
|
Scullin
|
|
|
|
|
|
Wills
|
|
|
|
|
QUEENSLAND (30 SEATS)
|
ALP Hold
|
ALP Gain
|
LNP Hold
|
LNP Gain
|
Independents
|
|
(3)
|
(0)
|
(20)
|
(6)
|
(1)
|
|
Griffith
|
|
Bonner
|
Blair
|
Kennedy
|
|
Oxley
|
|
Bowman
|
Capricornia
|
|
|
Rankin
|
|
Brisbane
|
Fisher
|
|
| |
|
Dawson
|
Lilley
|
|
| |
|
Dickson
|
Moreton
|
|
| |
|
Fadden
|
Petrie
|
|
| |
|
Fairfax
|
|
|
| |
|
Forde
|
|
|
| |
|
Flynn
|
|
|
| |
|
Groom
|
|
|
|
|
|
Herbert
|
|
|
| |
|
Hinkler
|
|
|
| |
|
Leichhardt
|
|
|
| |
|
Longman
|
|
|
| |
|
Maranoa
|
|
|
| |
|
McPherson
|
|
|
| |
|
Moncrieff
|
|
|
| |
|
Ryan
|
|
|
| |
|
Wide Bay
|
|
|
| |
|
Wright
|
|
|
WESTERN AUSTRALIA (15 SEATS)
|
ALP Hold
|
ALP Gain
|
L-NP Hold
|
L-NP Gain
|
|
(3)
|
(0)
|
(12)
|
(0)
|
|
Brand
|
|
Canning
|
|
|
Fremantle
|
|
Cowan
|
|
|
Perth
|
|
Curtin
|
|
|
|
|
Durack
|
|
| |
|
Forrest
|
|
| |
|
Hasluck
|
|
| |
|
Moore
|
|
| |
|
O'Connor
|
|
| |
|
Pearce
|
|
| |
|
Stirling
|
|
| |
|
Swan
|
|
| |
|
Tangney
|
|
SOUTH AUSTRALIA (11 SEATS)
|
ALP Hold
|
ALP Gain
|
L-NP Hold
|
L-NP Gain
|
|
(6)
|
(0)
|
(5)
|
(0)
|
|
Adelaide
|
|
Barker
|
|
|
Hindmarsh
|
|
Boothby
|
|
|
Kingston
|
|
Grey
|
|
|
Makin
|
|
Mayo
|
|
|
Port Adelaide
|
|
Sturt
|
|
|
Wakefield
|
|
|
|
TASMANIA (5 SEATS)
|
ALP Hold
|
ALP Gain
|
L-NP Hold
|
L-NP Gain
|
Independent
|
|
(4)
|
(0)
|
(0)
|
(0)
|
(1)
|
|
Bass
|
|
|
|
Denison
|
|
Braddon
|
|
|
|
|
|
Franklin
|
|
|
|
|
|
Lyons
|
|
|
|
|
NORTHERN TERRITORY (2 SEATS)
|
ALP Hold
|
ALP Gain
|
L-NP Hold
|
L-NP Gain
|
|
(0)
|
(0)
|
(1)
|
(1)
|
| |
|
Solomon
|
Lingiari
|
AUSTRALIAN CAPITAL TERRITORY (2 SEATS)
|
ALP Hold
|
ALP Gain
|
L-NP Hold
|
L-NP Gain
|
|
(2)
|
(0)
|
(0)
|
(0)
|
|
Canberra
|
|
|
|
|
Fraser
|
|
|
|
ANALYSIS BY STATE
NEW SOUTH WALES
|
|
PRIMARY VOTE
|
|
|
|
2010 Federal Election
|
September 4-6, 2013
|
% Change
this Federal Election
|
|
|
%
|
%
|
%
|
|
ALP
|
37.3
|
32.5
|
-4.8
|
|
L-NP
|
44.6 (7.9)
|
43 (5.5)
|
-1.6
|
|
Greens
|
10.2
|
9.5
|
-0.7
|
|
PUP
|
0.0
|
6.5
|
+6.5
|
|
Ind. /Other
|
7.9
|
8.5
|
+0.6
|
|
TOTAL
|
100
|
100
|
|
|
|
TWO-PARTY PREFERRED
|
|
|
ALP
|
48.8
|
48.5
|
-0.3
|
|
L-NP
|
51.2
|
51.5
|
+0.3
|
|
TOTAL
|
100
|
100
|
|
|
Sample size
|
4,303,081
|
1,456
|
|
VICTORIA
|
|
PRIMARY VOTE
|
|
|
|
2010 Federal Election
|
September 4-6, 2013
|
% Change
this Federal Election
|
|
|
%
|
%
|
%
|
|
ALP
|
42.8
|
30
|
-12.8
|
|
LNP
|
39.6 (3.2)
|
41 (2)
|
+1.4
|
|
Greens
|
12.7
|
16
|
+3.3
|
|
PUP
|
0.0
|
5.5
|
+5.5
|
|
Ind. /Other
|
4.9
|
7.5
|
+2.6
|
|
TOTAL
|
100
|
100
|
|
|
|
TWO-PARTY PREFERRED
|
|
|
ALP
|
55.3
|
50.5
|
-4.8
|
|
L-NP
|
44.7
|
49.5
|
+4.8
|
|
TOTAL
|
100
|
100
|
|
|
Sample size
|
3,329,883
|
1,308
|
|
QUEENSLAND
|
|
PRIMARY VOTE
|
|
|
|
2010 Federal Election
|
September 4-6, 2013
|
% Change
this Federal Election
|
|
|
%
|
%
|
%
|
|
ALP
|
33.6
|
30
|
-3.6
|
|
L-NP
|
47.4
|
47 (0.5)
|
-0.4
|
|
Greens
|
10.9
|
6
|
-4.9
|
|
PUP
|
0.0
|
10.5
|
+10.5
|
|
Ind. /Other
|
8.1
|
6.5
|
-1.6
|
|
TOTAL
|
100
|
100
|
|
|
|
TWO-PARTY PREFERRED
|
|
|
ALP
|
44.9
|
43
|
-1.9
|
|
LNP
|
55.1
|
57
|
+1.9
|
|
TOTAL
|
100
|
100
|
|
|
Sample size
|
2,521,574
|
947
|
|
WESTERN AUSTRALIA
|
|
PRIMARY VOTE
|
|
|
|
2010 Federal Election
|
September 4-6, 2013
|
% Change
this Federal Election
|
|
|
%
|
%
|
%
|
|
ALP
|
31.2
|
27
|
-4.2
|
|
L-NP
|
50.6 (3.6)
|
51 (5)
|
+0.4
|
|
Greens
|
13.1
|
11.5
|
-1.6
|
|
PUP
|
0.0
|
6
|
+6
|
|
Ind. /Other
|
5.1
|
4.5
|
-0.6
|
|
TOTAL
|
100
|
100
|
|
|
|
TWO-PARTY PREFERRED
|
|
|
ALP
|
43.6
|
41.5
|
-2.1
|
|
L-NP
|
56.4
|
58.5
|
+2.1
|
|
TOTAL
|
100
|
100
|
|
|
Sample size
|
1,264,968
|
455
|
|
SOUTH AUSTRALIA
|
|
PRIMARY VOTE
|
|
|
|
2010 Federal Election
|
September 4-6, 2013
|
% Change
this Federal Election
|
|
|
%
|
%
|
%
|
|
ALP
|
40.7
|
28.5
|
-12.2
|
|
L-NP
|
40.2
|
46 (1)
|
+5.8
|
|
Greens
|
12.0
|
10
|
-2
|
|
PUP
|
0.0
|
4
|
+4
|
|
Ind. /Other
|
7.1
|
11.5
|
+4.4
|
|
TOTAL
|
100
|
100
|
|
|
|
TWO-PARTY PREFERRED
|
|
|
ALP
|
53.2
|
44.5
|
-8.7
|
|
L-NP
|
46.8
|
55.5
|
+8.7
|
|
TOTAL
|
100
|
100
|
|
|
Sample size
|
1,036,514
|
409
|
|
TASMANIA*
|
|
PRIMARY VOTE
|
|
|
|
2010 Federal Election
|
September 4-6, 2013
|
% Change
this Federal Election
|
|
|
%
|
%
|
%
|
|
ALP
|
44.0
|
34
|
-10
|
|
L-NP
|
33.6
|
36.5
|
+2.9
|
|
Greens
|
16.8
|
15.5
|
-1.3
|
|
PUP
|
0.0
|
4.5
|
+4.5
|
|
Ind. /Other
|
5.6
|
9.5
|
+3.9
|
|
TOTAL
|
100
|
100
|
|
|
|
TWO-PARTY PREFERRED
|
|
|
ALP
|
60.6
|
52.5
|
-8.1
|
|
L-NP
|
39.4
|
47.5
|
+8.1
|
|
TOTAL
|
100
|
100
|
|
|
Sample size
|
340,943
|
162
|
|
*Please note. The small sample size in Tasmania means the Tasmanian figures should be treated with a degree of caution on their own. The figures are primarily used as part of a larger sample.
ANALYSIS BY CITIES/ REGIONS
CAPITAL CITIES
|
|
PRIMARY VOTE
|
|
|
|
August
16-18, 2013
|
August
23-25, 2013
|
Aug 31 -
Sep 1, 2013
|
Sep
4-6, 2013
|
% Change
this week
|
|
|
%
|
%
|
%
|
%
|
%
|
|
ALP
|
36.5
|
35
|
34.5
|
31.5
|
-3
|
|
L-NP
|
44.5 (1)
|
44.5 (0.5)
|
42 (0.5)
|
45 (0.5)
|
+3
|
|
Greens
|
10
|
12
|
12.5
|
12
|
-0.5
|
|
PUP
|
1
|
1
|
3.5
|
6
|
+2.5
|
|
Ind. /Other
|
8
|
7.5
|
7.5
|
5.5
|
-2
|
|
TOTAL
|
100
|
100
|
100
|
100
|
|
|
|
TWO-PARTY PREFERRED
|
|
|
ALP
|
49.5
|
49
|
49.5
|
46.5
|
-3
|
|
L-NP
|
50.5
|
51
|
50.5
|
53.5
|
+3
|
|
TOTAL
|
100
|
100
|
100
|
100
|
|
|
Sample size
|
2,659
|
2,001
|
2,211
|
2,968
|
|
COUNTRY AREAS
|
|
PRIMARY VOTE
|
|
|
|
August
16-18, 2013
|
August
23-25, 2013
|
Aug 31 -
Sep 1, 2013
|
Sep
4-6, 2013
|
% Change
this week
|
|
|
%
|
%
|
%
|
%
|
%
|
|
ALP
|
36
|
34
|
33.5
|
31
|
-2.5
|
|
L-NP
|
44.5 (7)
|
44.5 (5.5)
|
45 (6.5)
|
42 (7)
|
-3
|
|
Greens
|
8.5
|
10
|
8.5
|
9
|
+0.5
|
|
PUP
|
1.5
|
2
|
5
|
8
|
+3
|
|
Ind. /Other
|
9.5
|
9.5
|
8
|
10
|
+2
|
|
TOTAL
|
100
|
100
|
100
|
100
|
|
|
|
TWO-PARTY PREFERRED
|
|
|
ALP
|
48.5
|
48
|
45.5
|
47
|
+1.5
|
|
L-NP
|
51.5
|
52
|
54.5
|
53
|
-1.5
|
|
TOTAL
|
100
|
100
|
100
|
100
|
|
|
Sample size
|
1,856
|
1,418
|
1,535
|
1,969
|
|
ANALYSIS BY STATE
NEW SOUTH WALES
|
|
PRIMARY VOTE
|
|
|
|
August
16-18, 2013
|
August
23-25, 2013
|
Aug 31 -
Sep 1, 2013
|
Sep
4-6, 2013
|
% Change
this week
|
|
|
%
|
%
|
%
|
%
|
%
|
|
ALP
|
37.5
|
34.5
|
35
|
32.5
|
-2.5
|
|
L-NP
|
45.5 (4)
|
46.5 (4)
|
44 (5.5)
|
43 (5.5)
|
-1
|
|
Greens
|
8
|
9.5
|
10
|
9.5
|
-0.5
|
|
PUP
|
1.5
|
1.5
|
4
|
6.5
|
+2.5
|
|
Ind. /Other
|
7.5
|
8
|
7
|
8.5
|
+1.5
|
|
TOTAL
|
100
|
100
|
100
|
100
|
|
|
|
TWO-PARTY PREFERRED
|
|
|
ALP
|
49
|
47
|
47
|
48.5
|
+1.5
|
|
L-NP
|
51
|
53
|
53
|
51.5
|
-1.5
|
|
TOTAL
|
100
|
100
|
100
|
100
|
|
|
Sample size
|
1,389
|
1,049
|
1,100
|
1,456
|
|
VICTORIA
|
|
PRIMARY VOTE
|
|
|
|
August
16-18, 2013
|
August
23-25, 2013
|
Aug 31 -
Sep 1, 2013
|
Sep
4-6, 2013
|
% Change
this week
|
|
|
%
|
%
|
%
|
%
|
%
|
|
ALP
|
36
|
35
|
33.5
|
30
|
-3.5
|
|
L-NP
|
44.5 (3)
|
43 (2)
|
41.5 (2)
|
41 (2)
|
-0.5
|
|
Greens
|
11.5
|
14.5
|
14
|
16
|
+2
|
|
PUP
|
1
|
0.5
|
2.5
|
5.5
|
+3
|
|
Ind. /Other
|
7
|
7
|
8.5
|
7.5
|
-1
|
|
TOTAL
|
100
|
100
|
100
|
100
|
|
|
|
TWO-PARTY PREFERRED
|
|
|
ALP
|
49.5
|
51.5
|
50.5
|
50.5
|
-
|
|
L-NP
|
50.5
|
48.5
|
49.5
|
49.5
|
-
|
|
TOTAL
|
100
|
100
|
100
|
100
|
|
|
Sample size
|
1,118
|
858
|
947
|
1,308
|
|
QUEENSLAND
|
|
PRIMARY VOTE
|
|
|
|
August
16-18, 2013
|
August
23-25, 2013
|
Aug 31 -
Sep 1, 2013
|
Sep
4-6, 2013
|
% Change
this week
|
|
|
%
|
%
|
%
|
%
|
%
|
|
ALP
|
35.5
|
36
|
33.5
|
30
|
-3.5
|
|
LNP
|
45
|
44
|
43.5
|
47 (0.5)
|
+3.5
|
|
Greens
|
8
|
8
|
7.5
|
6
|
-1.5
|
|
PUP
|
1.5
|
2.5
|
7.5
|
10.5
|
+3
|
|
Ind. /Other
|
10
|
9.5
|
8
|
6.5
|
-1.5
|
|
TOTAL
|
100
|
100
|
100
|
100
|
|
|
|
TWO-PARTY PREFERRED
|
|
|
ALP
|
47
|
49
|
46
|
43
|
-3
|
|
LNP
|
53
|
51
|
54
|
57
|
+3
|
|
TOTAL
|
100
|
100
|
100
|
100
|
|
|
Sample size
|
876
|
661
|
738
|
947
|
|
WESTERN AUSTRALIA
|
|
PRIMARY VOTE
|
|
|
|
August
16-18, 2013
|
August
23-25, 2013
|
Aug 31 -
Sep 1, 2013
|
Sep
4-6, 2013
|
% Change
this week
|
|
|
%
|
%
|
%
|
%
|
%
|
|
ALP
|
35.5
|
29
|
28.5
|
27
|
-1.5
|
|
L-NP
|
46 (5.5)
|
50.5 (2.5)
|
48.5 (3.5)
|
51 (5)
|
+2.5
|
|
Greens
|
8
|
11.5
|
13.5
|
11.5
|
-2
|
|
PUP
|
0.5
|
1.5
|
2.5
|
6
|
+3.5
|
|
Ind. /Other
|
10
|
7.5
|
7
|
4.5
|
-2.5
|
|
TOTAL
|
100
|
100
|
100
|
100
|
|
|
|
TWO-PARTY PREFERRED
|
|
|
ALP
|
46
|
41.5
|
43
|
41.5
|
-1.5
|
|
L-NP
|
54
|
58.5
|
57
|
58.5
|
+1.5
|
|
TOTAL
|
100
|
100
|
100
|
100
|
|
|
Sample size
|
394
|
290
|
339
|
455
|
|
SOUTH AUSTRALIA
|
|
PRIMARY VOTE
|
|
|
|
August
16-18, 2013
|
August
23-25, 2013
|
Aug 31 -
Sep 1, 2013
|
Sep
4-6, 2013
|
% Change
this week
|
|
|
%
|
%
|
%
|
%
|
%
|
|
ALP
|
33.5
|
31
|
40
|
28.5
|
-11.5
|
|
L-NP
|
39.5 (0.5)
|
44 (0.5)
|
38.5
|
46 (1)
|
+7.5
|
|
Greens
|
14.5
|
10
|
8.5
|
10
|
+1.5
|
|
PUP
|
0.5
|
0.5
|
1
|
4
|
+3
|
|
Ind. /Other
|
12
|
14.5
|
12
|
11.5
|
-0.5
|
|
TOTAL
|
100
|
100
|
100
|
100
|
|
|
|
TWO-PARTY PREFERRED
|
|
|
ALP
|
52.5
|
46
|
53
|
44.5
|
-8.5
|
|
L-NP
|
47.5
|
54
|
47
|
55.5
|
+8.5
|
|
TOTAL
|
100
|
100
|
100
|
100
|
|
|
Sample size
|
361
|
278
|
306
|
409
|
|
TASMANIA*
|
|
PRIMARY VOTE
|
|
|
|
August
16-18, 2013
|
August
23-25, 2013
|
Aug 31 -
Sep 1, 2013
|
Sep
4-6, 2013
|
% Change
this week
|
|
|
%
|
%
|
%
|
%
|
%
|
|
ALP
|
38.5
|
41
|
25.5
|
34
|
+8.5
|
|
L-NP
|
40 (1)
|
36.5
|
49
|
36.5
|
-12.5
|
|
Greens
|
10
|
12.5
|
8
|
15.5
|
+7.5
|
|
PUP
|
-
|
1.5
|
6.5
|
4.5
|
-2
|
|
Ind. /Other
|
11.5
|
8.5
|
11
|
9.5
|
-1.5
|
|
TOTAL
|
100
|
100
|
100
|
100
|
|
|
|
TWO-PARTY PREFERRED
|
|
|
ALP
|
56.5
|
55.5
|
40.5
|
52.5
|
+12
|
|
L-NP
|
43.5
|
44.5
|
59.5
|
47.5
|
-12
|
|
TOTAL
|
100
|
100
|
100
|
100
|
|
|
Sample size
|
193
|
105
|
160
|
162
|
|
*Please note. The small sample size in Tasmania means the Tasmanian figures should be treated with a degree of caution on their own. The figures are primarily used as part of a larger sample.
ANALYSIS BY AGE
18-24
|
|
PRIMARY VOTE
|
|
|
|
August
16-18, 2013
|
August
23-25, 2013
|
Aug 31 -
Sep 1, 2013
|
Sep
4-6, 2013
|
% Change
this week
|
|
|
%
|
%
|
%
|
%
|
%
|
|
ALP
|
34.5
|
34.5
|
38.5
|
30.5
|
-8
|
|
L-NP
|
31 (2.5)
|
32
|
28.5 (1.5)
|
33 (3)
|
+4.5
|
|
Greens
|
18.5
|
23
|
18.5
|
19
|
+0.5
|
|
PUP
|
2
|
-
|
3.5
|
5.5
|
+2
|
|
Ind. /Other
|
14
|
10.5
|
11
|
12
|
+1
|
|
TOTAL
|
100
|
100
|
100
|
100
|
|
|
|
TWO-PARTY PREFERRED
|
|
|
ALP
|
59.5
|
59
|
63
|
54.5
|
-8.5
|
|
L-NP
|
40.5
|
41
|
37
|
45.5
|
+8.5
|
|
TOTAL
|
100
|
100
|
100
|
100
|
|
|
Sample size
|
290
|
210
|
265
|
332
|
|
25-34
|
|
PRIMARY VOTE
|
|
|
|
August
16-18, 2013
|
August
23-25, 2013
|
Aug 31 -
Sep 1, 2013
|
Sep
4-6, 2013
|
% Change
this week
|
|
|
%
|
%
|
%
|
%
|
%
|
|
ALP
|
41.5
|
37.5
|
38.5
|
33
|
-5.5
|
|
L-NP
|
35 (3.5)
|
36.5 (2)
|
34 (1.5)
|
33 (2)
|
-1
|
|
Greens
|
13.5
|
15
|
14.5
|
18
|
+3.5
|
|
PUP
|
0.5
|
1
|
4.5
|
6.5
|
+2
|
|
Ind. /Other
|
9.5
|
10
|
8.5
|
9.5
|
+1
|
|
TOTAL
|
100
|
100
|
100
|
100
|
|
|
|
TWO-PARTY PREFERRED
|
|
|
ALP
|
58.5
|
56.5
|
57
|
55.5
|
-1.5
|
|
L-NP
|
41.5
|
43.5
|
43
|
44.5
|
+1.5
|
|
TOTAL
|
100
|
100
|
100
|
100
|
|
|
Sample size
|
628
|
453
|
492
|
640
|
|
35-49
|
|
PRIMARY VOTE
|
|
|
|
August
16-18, 2013
|
August
23-25, 2013
|
Aug 31 -
Sep 1, 2013
|
Sep
4-6, 2013
|
% Change
this week
|
|
|
%
|
%
|
%
|
%
|
%
|
|
ALP
|
37.5
|
34.5
|
32.5
|
32.5
|
-
|
|
L-NP
|
42.5 (2)
|
43 (2.5)
|
43.5 (3)
|
39.5 (2)
|
-4
|
|
Greens
|
11
|
12.5
|
11.5
|
11.5
|
-
|
|
PUP
|
1
|
1
|
5.5
|
8.5
|
+3
|
|
Ind. /Other
|
8
|
9
|
7
|
8
|
+1
|
|
TOTAL
|
100
|
100
|
100
|
100
|
|
|
|
TWO-PARTY PREFERRED
|
|
|
ALP
|
51.5
|
50.5
|
47
|
50
|
+3
|
|
L-NP
|
48.5
|
49.5
|
53
|
50
|
-3
|
|
TOTAL
|
100
|
100
|
100
|
100
|
|
|
Sample size
|
1,138
|
842
|
927
|
1,280
|
|
50-64
|
|
PRIMARY VOTE
|
|
|
|
August
16-18, 2013
|
August
23-25, 2013
|
Aug 31 -
Sep 1, 2013
|
Sep
4-6, 2013
|
% Change
this week
|
|
|
%
|
%
|
%
|
%
|
%
|
|
ALP
|
35.5
|
33.5
|
33
|
30.5
|
-2.5
|
|
L-NP
|
47.5 (3.5)
|
47 (2.5)
|
46.5 (2.5)
|
49 (3.5)
|
+2.5
|
|
Greens
|
7
|
9
|
8.5
|
6.5
|
-2
|
|
PUP
|
1
|
2
|
4.5
|
7
|
+2.5
|
|
Ind. /Other
|
9
|
8.5
|
7.5
|
7
|
-0.5
|
|
TOTAL
|
100
|
100
|
100
|
100
|
|
|
|
TWO-PARTY PREFERRED
|
|
|
ALP
|
46
|
45.5
|
44
|
42
|
-2
|
|
L-NP
|
54
|
54.5
|
56
|
58
|
+2
|
|
TOTAL
|
100
|
100
|
100
|
100
|
|
|
Sample size
|
1,433
|
1,069
|
1,257
|
1,494
|
|
65+
|
|
PRIMARY VOTE
|
|
|
|
August
16-18, 2013
|
August
23-25, 2013
|
Aug 31 -
Sep 1, 2013
|
Sep
4-6, 2013
|
% Change
this week
|
|
|
%
|
%
|
%
|
%
|
%
|
|
ALP
|
33.5
|
33
|
32.5
|
28
|
-4.5
|
|
L-NP
|
57 (5)
|
56 (3.5)
|
52.5 (5)
|
56 (3.5)
|
+3.5
|
|
Greens
|
3.5
|
3.5
|
6.5
|
6.5
|
-
|
|
PUP
|
1
|
1.5
|
1.5
|
4
|
+2.5
|
|
Ind. /Other
|
5
|
6
|
7
|
5.5
|
-1.5
|
|
TOTAL
|
100
|
100
|
100
|
100
|
|
|
|
TWO-PARTY PREFERRED
|
|
|
ALP
|
45
|
39.5
|
40.5
|
38
|
-2.5
|
|
L-NP
|
55
|
60.5
|
59.5
|
62
|
+2.5
|
|
TOTAL
|
100
|
100
|
100
|
100
|
|
|
Sample size
|
1,026
|
845
|
805
|
1,191
|
|
TOTAL
|
|
PRIMARY VOTE
|
|
|
|
August
16-18, 2013
|
August
23-25, 2013
|
Aug 31 -
Sep 1, 2013
|
Sep
4-6, 2013
|
% Change
this week
|
|
|
%
|
%
|
%
|
%
|
%
|
|
ALP
|
36.5
|
34.5
|
34
|
31.5
|
-2.5
|
|
L-NP
|
44.5
|
45 (2.5)
|
43 (3)
|
44 (3)
|
+1
|
|
Greens
|
9.5
|
11
|
11
|
10.5
|
-0.5
|
|
PUP
|
1
|
1.5
|
4
|
6.5
|
+2.5
|
|
Ind. /Other
|
8.5
|
8
|
8
|
7.5
|
-0.5
|
|
TOTAL
|
100
|
100
|
100
|
100
|
|
|
|
TWO-PARTY PREFERRED
|
|
|
ALP
|
49
|
48.5
|
48
|
46.5
|
-1.5
|
|
L-NP
|
51
|
51.5
|
52
|
53.5
|
+1.5
|
|
TOTAL
|
100
|
100
|
100
|
100
|
|
|
Sample size
|
4,515
|
3,419
|
3,476
|
4,937
|
|
AUSTRALIA – TOTAL
|
|
PRIMARY VOTE
|
|
|
|
2010 Federal Election
|
September 4-6, 2013
|
% Change
this Federal Election
|
|
|
%
|
%
|
%
|
|
ALP
|
38.0
|
31.5
|
-6.5
|
|
L-NP
|
43.6 (3.7)
|
44 (3)
|
+0.4
|
|
Greens
|
11.8
|
10.5
|
-1.3
|
|
PUP
|
0.0
|
6.5
|
+6.5
|
|
Ind. /Other
|
6.6
|
7.5
|
+0.9
|
|
TOTAL
|
100
|
100
|
|
|
|
TWO-PARTY PREFERRED
|
|
|
ALP
|
50.1
|
46.5
|
-3.6
|
|
L-NP
|
49.9
|
53.5
|
+3.6
|
|
TOTAL
|
100
|
100
|
|
|
Sample size
|
13,131,667
|
4,937
|
|
For further information:
|
Contact
|
Office
|
Mobile
|
|
Gary Morgan:
|
+61 3 9224 5213
|
+61 411 129 094
|
|
Michele Levine:
|
+61 3 9224 5215
|
+61 411 129 093
|
Margin of Error
The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. The following table gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. The figures are approximate and for general guidance only, and assume a simple random sample. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.
|
Sample Size
|
Percentage Estimate
|
|
40%-60%
|
25% or 75%
|
10% or 90%
|
5% or 95%
|
|
500
|
±4.5
|
±3.9
|
±2.7
|
±1.9
|
|
1,000
|
±3.2
|
±2.7
|
±1.9
|
±1.4
|
|
1,500
|
±2.6
|
±2.2
|
±1.5
|
±1.1
|
|
2,000
|
±2.2
|
±1.9
|
±1.3
|
±1.0
|