Roy Morgan-Channel 10 Exit Morgan Poll most accurate
The Roy Morgan-Channel 10 SMS Exit Morgan Poll, released nationwide on the Channel 10 6pm news, has proved to be the most accurate measure of the voting intentions of Australian electors. The SMS Exit Morgan Poll showed the L-NP (53%) cf. ALP (47%) – a clear victory for the L-NP. The latest results from the AEC show the L-NP (53.1%) cf. ALP (46.9%).
The Roy Morgan Channel 10 SMS Exit Morgan Poll was conducted continuously on Saturday and released exclusively to Channel 10 each hour. The SMS Exit Morgan Poll was conducted nation-wide with a total of 6,215 Australian electors.
In addition, the Morgan Poll was the only poll to show the surge in support for the Palmer United Party and to predict Clive Palmer could win his own seat of Fairfax.
Clive could win Fairfax, says expert
4th Sep 2013 9:53 AM
“CLIVE Palmer may win his seat of Fairfax and his party may take a spot in the Senate in Saturday's election.”
That is the view of Gary Morgan, the executive chairman of Australian research company, Roy Morgan.
(Interviewed on Tuesday September 2 - when the Morgan Poll had the PUP vote increasing to 4% (7.5% in Queensland), reported on Thursday September 4, 2013)
For further information:
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Contact
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Office
|
Mobile
|
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Gary Morgan:
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+61 3 9224 5213
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+61 411 129 094
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Michele Levine:
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+61 3 9224 5215
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+61 411 129 093
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Click here for full PDF of Comparisons.
|
Federal
Election
Sept 7,
2013 |
SMS
Exit Poll |
Multi-
mode** |
Multi-
mode** |
Phone |
Phone |
Phone |
Phone |
Mobile
only |
Sept 7,
2013 |
Sept
4-6,
2013 |
Sept
4-5,
2013 |
Sept
4-5,
2013 |
Sept
4-5,
2013 |
Sept 5,
2013 |
Sept
2-4,
2013 |
Sept
4-5,
2013 |
Morgan
Poll |
Morgan
Poll |
Morgan
Poll |
Newspoll |
Nielsen |
Essential |
Galaxy |
Guardian
-Lonergan |
Actual
Result* |
% |
error |
% |
error |
% |
error |
% |
error |
% |
error |
% |
error |
% |
error |
% |
error |
| Sample Size |
(10,627,380) |
(6,215) |
(4,937) |
(3,939) |
(2,511) |
(1,431) |
(1,035) |
(1,503) |
(862) |
| TWO-PARTY PREFERRED |
| L-NP |
53.1 |
53 |
-0.1 |
53.5 |
+0.4 |
53.5 |
+0.4 |
54 |
+0.9 |
54 |
+0.9 |
52 |
-1.1 |
53 |
-0.1 |
50.8 |
-2.3 |
| ALP |
46.9 |
47 |
+0.1 |
46.5 |
-0.4 |
46.5 |
-0.4 |
46 |
-0.9 |
46 |
-0.9 |
48 |
+1.1 |
47 |
+0.1 |
49.2 |
+2.3 |
| Av. error |
|
|
0.1 |
|
0.4 |
|
0.4 |
|
0.9 |
|
0.9 |
|
1.1 |
|
0.1 |
|
2.3 |
| PRIMARY VOTE |
| L-NP |
45.4 |
43.5 |
-1.9 |
44 |
-1.4 |
45 |
-0.4 |
46 |
+0.6 |
46 |
+0.6 |
43 |
-2.4 |
45 |
-0.4 |
42 |
-3.4 |
| ALP |
33.8 |
33 |
-0.8 |
31.5 |
-2.3 |
31.5 |
-2.3 |
33 |
-0.8 |
33 |
-0.8 |
35 |
+1.2 |
35 |
+1.2 |
34 |
+0.2 |
| Greens |
8.4 |
11 |
+2.6 |
10.5 |
+2.1 |
9.5 |
+1.1 |
9 |
+0.6 |
11 |
+2.6 |
10 |
+1.6 |
9 |
+0.6 |
14 |
+5.6 |
| Ind/ Other |
12.4 |
12.5 |
+0.1 |
14 |
+1.6 |
14 |
+1.6 |
12 |
-0.4 |
10 |
-2.4 |
12 |
-0.4 |
11 |
-1.4 |
10 |
-2.4 |
| (Without Palmer) |
| Palmer |
5.6 |
5 |
-0.6 |
6.5 |
+0.9 |
6.5 |
+0.9 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
5 |
-0.6 |
|
|
| Ind/Other |
6.8 |
7.5 |
+0.7 |
7.5 |
+0.7 |
7.5 |
+0.7 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
6 |
-0.8 |
|
|
| (Without Katter, Family First, CDP) |
| Katter |
1.0 |
1.0 |
- |
1.0 |
- |
1.0 |
- |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Family First/ CDP |
2.0 |
2.0 |
- |
2.0 |
- |
2.0 |
- |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Ind/ Other |
3.8 |
4.5 |
+0.7 |
4.5 |
+0.7 |
4.5 |
+0.7 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Av. Error on all Parties |
|
|
|
0.9 |
|
1.1 |
|
0.9 |
|
0.6 |
|
1.6 |
|
1.4 |
|
0.7 |
|
2.9 |