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Roy Morgan-Channel 10 SMS Exit Morgan Poll most accurate on 2PP

Roy Morgan-Channel 10 Exit Morgan Poll most accurate

The Roy Morgan-Channel 10 SMS Exit Morgan Poll, released nationwide on the Channel 10 6pm news, has proved to be the most accurate measure of the voting intentions of Australian electors. The SMS Exit Morgan Poll showed the L-NP (53%) cf. ALP (47%) – a clear victory for the L-NP. The latest results from the AEC show the L-NP (53.1%) cf. ALP (46.9%).

The Roy Morgan Channel 10 SMS Exit Morgan Poll was conducted continuously on Saturday and released exclusively to Channel 10 each hour. The SMS Exit Morgan Poll was conducted nation-wide with a total of 6,215 Australian electors.

In addition, the Morgan Poll was the only poll to show the surge in support for the Palmer United Party and to predict Clive Palmer could win his own seat of Fairfax.

Clive could win Fairfax, says expert

4th Sep 2013 9:53 AM

Clive Palmer, Leader, Palmer United Party

“CLIVE Palmer may win his seat of Fairfax and his party may take a spot in the Senate in Saturday's election.”

That is the view of Gary Morgan, the executive chairman of Australian research company, Roy Morgan.

(Interviewed on Tuesday September 2 - when the Morgan Poll had the PUP vote increasing to 4% (7.5% in Queensland), reported on Thursday September 4, 2013)


For further information:

Contact

Office

Mobile

Gary Morgan:

+61 3 9224 5213

+61 411 129 094

Michele Levine:

+61 3 9224 5215

+61 411 129 093


Click here for full PDF of Comparisons.

Federal
Election
Sept 7,
2013
SMS
Exit Poll
Multi-
mode**
Multi-
mode**
Phone Phone Phone Phone Mobile
only
Sept 7,
2013
Sept
4-6,
2013
Sept
4-5,
2013
Sept
4-5,
2013
Sept
4-5,
2013
Sept 5,
2013
Sept
2-4,
2013
Sept
4-5,
2013
Morgan
Poll
Morgan
Poll
Morgan
Poll
Newspoll Nielsen Essential Galaxy Guardian
-Lonergan
Actual
Result
*
% error % error % error % error % error % error % error % error
Sample Size (10,627,380) (6,215) (4,937) (3,939) (2,511) (1,431) (1,035) (1,503) (862)
TWO-PARTY PREFERRED
L-NP 53.1 53 -0.1 53.5 +0.4 53.5 +0.4 54 +0.9 54 +0.9 52 -1.1 53 -0.1 50.8 -2.3
ALP 46.9 47 +0.1 46.5 -0.4 46.5 -0.4 46 -0.9 46 -0.9 48 +1.1 47 +0.1 49.2 +2.3
Av. error 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.9 0.9 1.1 0.1 2.3
PRIMARY VOTE
L-NP 45.4 43.5 -1.9 44 -1.4 45 -0.4 46 +0.6 46 +0.6 43 -2.4 45 -0.4 42 -3.4
ALP 33.8 33 -0.8 31.5 -2.3 31.5 -2.3 33 -0.8 33 -0.8 35 +1.2 35 +1.2 34 +0.2
Greens 8.4 11 +2.6 10.5 +2.1 9.5 +1.1 9 +0.6 11 +2.6 10 +1.6 9 +0.6 14 +5.6
Ind/ Other 12.4 12.5 +0.1 14 +1.6 14 +1.6 12 -0.4 10 -2.4 12 -0.4 11 -1.4 10 -2.4
(Without Palmer)
Palmer 5.6 5 -0.6 6.5 +0.9 6.5 +0.9 5 -0.6
Ind/Other 6.8 7.5 +0.7 7.5 +0.7 7.5 +0.7 6 -0.8
(Without Katter, Family First, CDP)
Katter 1.0 1.0 - 1.0 - 1.0 -
Family First/ CDP 2.0 2.0 - 2.0 - 2.0 -
Ind/ Other 3.8 4.5 +0.7 4.5 +0.7 4.5 +0.7
Av. Error on all Parties
0.9 1.1 0.9 0.6 1.6 1.4 0.7 2.9