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Unemployment now 10.4% in September (up 0.3% in a month) and up 4.7% since November 2007 – the term of the ALP Government

This Roy Morgan survey on Australia’s unemployment and ‘under-employed’* is based on weekly face-to-face interviews of 348,624 Australians aged 14 and over between January 2007 – September 2013 and includes 4,315 face-to-face interviews in September 2013.
In September 2013 an estimated 1.3 million Australians (10.4% of the workforce) were unemployed. This is up 46,000 (0.3%) from last month. The Australian workforce* was 12,467,000 (up 90,000) comprising 7,413,000 full-time workers (down 27,000), 3,757,000 part-time workers (up 71,000) and 1,297,000 looking for work (up 46,000) according to the Roy Morgan monthly employment estimates. These figures do not include people who have dropped out of the workforce and given up looking.

Among those who were employed 989,000 Australians (7.9% of the workforce*) were under-employed, i.e. working part-time and looking for more work. This is 17,000 fewer than a month ago (down 0.2%).

In September in total an estimated 2.286 million Australians (18.3% of the workforce) were unemployed or under-employed. This is up 0.1%, or 29,000 from August, but much higher than 12 months ago in September 2012 (up 170,000, 0.9% from 2.116 million).

Of those looking for work an estimated 607,000 Australians (down 24,000) were looking for full-time work, while 690,000 (up 70,000) were looking for part-time work.

The latest Roy Morgan unemployment estimate of 10.4% is a substantial 4.6% more than currently quoted by the ABS for August 2013 (5.8%) – the Abbott Government needs to immediately establish a working committee to demand the ABS release the true and complete unemployment figures each month.

 

Roy Morgan Unemployed and ‘Under-employed’* Estimate

 

 

 

 

 

 

Unemployed or

‘Under-employed’*

Unemployed

Unemployed looking for

‘Under-employed’*

Full-time

Part-time

2012

‘000

%

‘000

%

‘000

‘000

‘000

%

Jan–Mar 2012

2,143

17.5

1,192

9.7

599

593

951

7.8

Apr-June 2012

2,121

17.4

1,105

9.1

546

559

1,016

8.3

July-Sep 2012

2,120

17.4

1,196

9.8

584

612

924

7.6

Oct-Dec 2012

2,224

18.4

1,182

9.8

569

613

1,042

8.6

2013

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Jan–Mar 2013

2,391

19.2

1,352

10.9

703

649

1,039

8.3

Apr-Jun 2013

2,243

18.1

1,176

9.5

588

587

1,067

8.6

Jul-Sep 2013

2314

18.5

1,272

10.2

618

654

1,042

8.3

Months

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

August 2012

2,131

17.3

1,205

9.8

634

571

926

7.5

September 2012

2,116

17.4

1,213

10.0

597

616

903

7.4

October 2012

2,138

17.8

1,163

9.7

579

584

975

8.1

November 2012

2,222

18.1

1,229

10.0

553

676

993

8.1

December 2012

2,354

19.2

1,176

9.6

586

590

1,178

9.6

January 2013

2,395

19.7

1,327

10.9

744

583

1,068

8.8

February 2013

2,473

19.8

1,360

10.9

649

711

1,113

8.9

March 2013

2,305

18.2

1,369

10.8

715

654

936

7.4

April 2013

2,254

18.1

1,154

9.3

508

646

1,100

8.8

May 2013

2,129

17.3

1,168

9.5

629

539

961

7.8

June 2013

2,346

18.9

1,205

9.7

628

577

1,141

9.2

July 2013

2,398

19.1

1,267

10.1

616

651

1,131

9.0

August 2013

2,257

18.2

1,251

10.1

631

620

1,006

8.1

September 2013

2,286

18.3

1,297

10.4

607

690

989

7.9

*Workforce includes those employed and those looking for work – the unemployed. # The Gillard Government’s ‘Fair
Work Australia’ Act was implemented on January 1, 2010, replacing the Howard Government’s ‘Work Choices’ Legislation.


Gary Morgan says:

“When Tony Abbott took over as Prime Minister last month unemployment was 10.1%, some 4.4% higher than when Kevin Rudd took office in November 2007. At the time of the Federal Election 1,251,000 people were unemployed, more than double the Roy Morgan unemployment figure in November 2007 when there were 606,000 unemployed Australians.

“There is no good news in today’s Roy Morgan September employment estimates with unemployment continuing to rise, now at 10.4% (up 0.3% since August). In raw figures, now 1,297,000 Australians are unemployed (up 46,000 since August).

“While the overall level of employed Australians has risen to 11,170,000 (up 44,000), most worryingly full-time employment has dropped to 7,413,000 (down 27,000) – now at its lowest since January 2013 (7,196,000). Australia’s under-employment has dropped slightly to 989,000 (7.9%, down 0.2%) meaning a total of 2,286,000 (up 29,000) Australians are either unemployed or under-employed (18.3%, up 0.1%).

“With this level of real unemployment, there is no doubt the new Coalition Government will be reviewing all the 'drivers' of employment – Industrial Relations laws and practices; restoring confidence in Australian businesses and the Australian economy.

“In addition, the worrying economic conditions overseas – particularly the damaging political stalemate in the US regarding the US debt ceiling – make it imperative that the RBA re-commence its interest rate cutting cycle at this afternoon’s interest rate setting meeting with an interest rate cut of at least 0.5%.”

This Roy Morgan survey on Australia’s unemployment and ‘under-employed’* is based on weekly face-to-face interviews of 348,624 Australians aged 14 and over between January 2007 – September 2013 and includes 4,315 face-to-face interviews in September 2013.

*The ‘under-employed’ are those people who are in part-time work or consultants who are looking for more work. (Unfortunately the ABS does not measure this figure in their monthly unemployment survey.)

For further information: 

Contact

Office

Mobile

Gary Morgan:     

+61 3 9224 5213  

+61 411 129 094

Michele Levine:       

+61 3 9224 5215  

+61 411 129 093




Unemployment Data Tables

Roy Morgan Research Employment Estimates (2001-2013)

Roy Morgan Research Unemployment & Under-employment Estimates (2007-2013)

Roy Morgan Research vs ABS Employment Estimates (1992-2013)

ABS Employment Estimates (1992-2013)


Roy Morgan September Unemployment Estimate - 10.4%

Roy Morgan September Quarter Unemployment Estimate - 10.2%

Roy Morgan September Unemployment & Under-employment Estimate - 18.3%


ROY MORGAN MEASURES REAL UNEMPLOYMENT IN AUSTRALIA

NOT THE ‘PERCEPTION’ OF UNEMPLOYMENT – JUNE 8, 2012

http://www.roymorgan.com/~/media/Files/Papers/2012/20120603.pdf

The Roy Morgan Unemployment estimate is obtained by surveying an Australia-wide cross section by face-to-face interviews. A person is classified as unemployed if they are looking for work, no matter when.

The results are not seasonally adjusted and provide an accurate measure of monthly unemployment estimates in Australia.

The Australian Bureau of Statistics Unemployment estimates are obtained by mostly telephone interviews. Households selected for the ABS Survey are interviewed each month for eight months, with one-eighth of the sample being replaced each month. The first interview is conducted face-to-face. Subsequent interviews are then conducted by telephone.

The ABS classifies a person as unemployed if, when surveyed, they have been actively looking for work in the four weeks up to the end of the reference week and if they were available for work in the reference week.

The Australian Bureau of Statistics Unemployment estimates are also seasonally adjusted.

For these reasons the Australian Bureau of Statistics Unemployment estimates are different from the Roy Morgan Unemployment estimate. Gary Morgan's concerns regarding the ABS Unemployment estimate is clearly outlined in his letter to the Australian Financial Review, which was not published.