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Labour (37%, up 4.5%) receives significant boost after David Cunliffe elected as new Labour Leader – Highest since October 2008

This latest New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll on voting intention was conducted by telephone – both landline and mobile telephone, with a NZ wide cross-section of 934 electors from September 16-29, 2013. Of all electors surveyed a high 5% (down 1%) didn’t name a party.
Today’s New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll shows a significant boost to Labour support (37%, up 4.5% since August 26-September 8, 2013) after David Cunliffe was elected as the new Labour Leader two weeks ago. A potential Labour/ Greens alliance (48.5%, up 1%) retains a large lead over John Key’s National Party 42% (up 1%). Support for Key’s Coalition partners has changed little with the Maori Party 1% (unchanged), ACT NZ 0.5% (down 0.5%) and United Future 0.5% (unchanged).

Support for the Greens has fallen to 11.5% (down 3.5%), New Zealand First 4.5% (down 2%), Mana Party 0.5% (unchanged), Conservative Party of NZ 2% (up 0.5%) and Others 0.5% (unchanged).

If a National Election were held now the latest NZ Roy Morgan Poll shows that a Labour/ Greens alliance would win easily.

The latest NZ Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating has jumped to 129.5 (up 12.5pts) with 59% (up 6.5%) of New Zealanders saying New Zealand is ‘heading in the right direction’ compared to 29.5% (down 6%) that say New Zealand is ‘heading in the wrong direction’.

Gary Morgan says:

“Today’s New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll shows a large boost to Labour’s support (37%, up 4.5%) after the election of David Cunliffe as the new Labour Leader – now at its highest since Helen Clark was Prime Minister in October 2008. The boost to Labour’s support has come at the expense of fellow Opposition Parties the Greens (11.5%, down 3.5%) and New Zealand First (4.5%, down 2%).

“A potential Labour/Greens alliance (48.5%, up 1%) remains well ahead of National (42%, up 1%) and would form Government if an election were held now. The immediate boost to Labour support provides Cunliffe with a great ‘platform’ to explain why New Zealand electors should vote for Labour again.

“If Cunliffe can enunciate a consistent and concise message of the Labour Party policies and how they will improve the lives of New Zealanders and the country in general over the next 12 months, Cunliffe stands a real chance of being elected as New Zealand’s next Prime Minister at next year’s election.”

Electors were asked: “If a New Zealand Election were held today which party would receive your party vote?”

This latest New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll on voting intention was conducted by telephone – both landline and mobile telephone, with a NZ wide cross-section of 934 electors from September 16-29, 2013. Of all electors surveyed a high 5% (down 1%) didn’t name a party.

New Zealand Voting Intention - October 2, 2013

New Zealand GCR


For further information:

Gary Morgan
Office +61 3 9224 5213
Mobile +61 411 129 094

Michele Levine
Office +61 3 9224 5215
Mobile +61 411 129 093


Margin of Error

The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. The following table gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. The figures are approximate and for general guidance only, and assume a simple random sample.

Sample Size

Percentage Estimate

 

40%-60%

25% or 75%

10% or 90%

5% or 95%

1,000

±3.2

±2.7

±1.9

±1.4

1,500

±2.5

±2.2

±1.5

±1.1