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Morgan Poll shows ALP (50.5%) holds slight lead over L-NP (49.5%) as Prime Minister Tony Abbott visits Indonesia

Finding No. 5234 - This multi-mode Morgan Poll on Federal voting intention was conducted last weekend via SMS, Online and face-to-face interviewing on October 5/6, 2013 with an Australia-wide cross-section of 3,199 Australian electors aged 18+, of all electors surveyed 1.5% (up 1%) did not name a party.

The ALP (50.5%, up 1% since the Morgan Poll of September 21/22, 2013) now leads the L-NP (49.5%, down 1%) on a two-party preferred basis according to the multi-mode Morgan Poll conducted last weekend (October 5/6, 2013) on Federal voting intention with an Australia-wide cross-section of 3,199 Australian electors aged 18+.

The L-NP primary vote is 42% (down 1.5%), ahead of the ALP primary vote at 37% (up 3%).

Among the minor parties Greens support is 9% (down 1.5%), support for the Palmer United Party is 4.5% (up 0.5%) and support for Independents/Others is 7.5% (down 0.5%).

Analysis by Gender

Analysis by Gender shows Women favour the ALP 53.5% (up 1% since September 21/22, 2013) cf. L-NP 46.5% (down 1%) on a two party preferred basis and Men favour the L-NP 52.5% (down 1%) cf. ALP 47.5% (up 1%).

The Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating is now at 113.0 up 2pts since September 21/22, 2013. Now 42% (unchanged) of Australians say Australia is ‘heading in the right direction’ and 29% (down 2%) say Australia is ‘heading in the wrong direction’.

The Morgan Poll surveys a larger sample (including people who only use a mobile phone) than any other public opinion poll.

Gary Morgan says:

“Tony Abbott’s first trip abroad hasn’t helped the new Government’s standing in the community with the ALP (50.5%, up 1% since September 21/22, 2013) now ahead of the L-NP (49.5%, down 1%) on a two-party preferred basis only one month after a convincing election victory for the Coalition.

“Although media commentary has been supportive of Abbott’s diplomacy in meeting Indonesian leaders including Indonesian President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono (SBY) and a renewed commitment to working closely with Indonesia on dealing with the contentious issue of asylum seekers, these efforts have not led to a rise in community support for the Coalition.

“The issue of asylum seekers was again brought to our national attention last week after an asylum seeker boat sank off the Indonesian coast with dozens of asylum seekers feared drowned. A special Morgan Poll conducted in June showed a clear majority of Australian electors (59%) think asylum seekers arriving by boat should be returned and made to apply through normal refugee channels.

“Today’s Morgan Poll may also reflect a more general wariness Australians have regarding Indonesia. When Roy Morgan asked Australians whether they would be ‘more likely’ or ‘less likely’ to buy goods from Indonesia, a clear majority of Australians (58%) say they would be ‘less likely’ to buy goods made in Indonesia compared to only 11% of Australians that say they would be ‘more likely’ to buy goods made in Indonesia. Perhaps the most surprising point to note about today’s result is that the ALP has yet to elect it’s new leader since its Federal Election loss.”

Electors were asked: “If an election for the House of Representatives were held today - which party will receive your first preference?”

Visit the Roy Morgan Online Store to browse our range of Voter Profiles by electorate, detailed Voting Intention Demographics Reports and Most important Political Issue Reports (all 150 electorates ranked by an issue).

Finding No. 5234 - This multi-mode Morgan Poll on Federal voting intention was conducted last weekend via SMS, Online and face-to-face interviewing on October 5/6, 2013 with an Australia-wide cross-section of 3,199 Australian electors aged 18+, of all electors surveyed 1.5% (up 1%) did not name a party.

 

For further information:

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Data Tables


Morgan Poll Federal Voting Intention - October 8, 2013

Roy Morgan GCR


Margin of Error

The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. The following table gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. The figures are approximate and for general guidance only, and assume a simple random sample. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.

Sample Size

Percentage Estimate

40%-60%

25% or 75%

10% or 90%

5% or 95%

500

±4.5

±3.9

±2.7

±1.9

1,000

±3.2

±2.7

±1.9

±1.4

1,500

±2.6

±2.2

±1.5

±1.1

2,000

±2.2

±1.9

±1.3

±1.0