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A Labour/ Greens Alliance (49.5%, up 1%) would easily win election over National Party (41.5%, down 0.5%)

This latest New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll on voting intention was conducted by telephone – both landline and mobile telephone, with a NZ wide cross-section of 839 electors from September 30-October 13, 2013. Of all electors surveyed a high 4.5% (down 0.5%) didn’t name a party.

Today’s New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll shows a potential Labour/ Greens Alliance (49.5%, up 1%) with a clear election winning lead over John Key’s National Party (41.5%, down 0.5%).  Support for Key’s Coalition partners has changed little with the Maori Party 1.5% (up 0.5%), ACT NZ 0.5% (unchanged) and United Future 0% (down 0.5%).

Support for the Labour Party is 37% (unchanged), Greens has risen to 12.5% (up 1%), New Zealand First 5% (up 0.5%), Mana Party 0.5% (unchanged), Conservative Party of NZ 0.5% (down 1.5%) and Others 1% (up 0.5%).

If a National Election were held now the latest New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll shows that a Labour/ Greens alliance would win easily.

The latest NZ Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating has fallen to 124 (down 5.5pts) with 55% (down 4%) of New Zealanders saying New Zealand is ‘heading in the right direction’ compared to 31% (up 1.5%) that say New Zealand is ‘heading in the wrong direction’.

Gary Morgan says:

“Today’s New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll shows a potential Labour/Greens Alliance (49.5%, up 1%) increasing their lead over the governing National (41.5%, down 0.5%) just over one year out from New Zealand’s expected November 2014 election.

“New Labour Party Leader David Cunliffe has re-invigorated the main Opposition Labour Party (37%, unchanged) who are now just 4.5% behind National – the closest Labour has been for five years since October 2008 when Labour was still in Government under former Prime Minister Helen Clark.”

Electors were asked: “If a New Zealand Election were held today which party would receive your party vote?”

This latest New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll on voting intention was conducted by telephone – both landline and mobile telephone, with a NZ wide cross-section of 839 electors from September 30-October 13, 2013. Of all electors surveyed a high 4.5% (down 0.5%) didn’t name a party.

Roy Morgan New Zealand Voting Intention - October 17, 2013


New Zealand GCR


For further information:

Gary Morgan
Office +61 3 9224 5213
Mobile +61 411 129 094

Michele Levine
Office +61 3 9224 5215
Mobile +61 411 129 093


Margin of Error

The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. The following table gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. The figures are approximate and for general guidance only, and assume a simple random sample.

Sample Size

Percentage Estimate

 

40%-60%

25% or 75%

10% or 90%

5% or 95%

1,000

±3.2

±2.7

±1.9

±1.4

1,500

±2.5

±2.2

±1.5

±1.1