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L-NP (51.5%) regains lead over ALP (48.5%) after Bill Shorten elected as new ALP Leader

Finding No. 5254 - This multi-mode Morgan Poll on Federal voting intention was conducted last weekend via SMS, Online and face-to-face interviewing on October 19/20, 2013 with an Australia-wide cross-section of 3,280 Australian electors aged 18+, of all electors surveyed 2.5% (up 1%) did not name a party.

On a two-party preferred basis the L-NP is 51.5%, up 2% since the Morgan Poll of October 5/6, 2013. ALP support is 48.5%, down 2%. If an election were held now the L-NP would be returned according to the Morgan Poll. This multi-mode Morgan Poll on voting intention was conducted last weekend (October 19/20, 2013) with an Australia-wide cross-section of 3,280 Australian electors aged 18+.

The L-NP primary vote is 43.5% (up 1.5%) ahead of the ALP primary vote at 34.5% (down 2.5%).

Among the minor parties Greens support is 10% (up 1%), support for the Palmer United Party (PUP) is 4.5% (unchanged) and support for Independents/Others is 7.5% (unchanged). Support for PUP is highest in Queensland (9.5%) and Tasmania (8.5%) – both States in which PUP Senators were elected at the recent Federal Election.

Analysis by Gender

Analysis by Gender shows support for the L-NP has increased more among women than men. Women are now evenly divided between the ALP 50% (down 3.5% since October 5/6, 2013) and L-NP 50% (up 3.5%) on a two party preferred basis. Men continue to favour the L-NP 53% (up 0.5%) cf. ALP 47% (down 0.5%).

The Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating is now at 114.0 up 1pt since October 5/6, 2013. Now 42.5% (up 0.5%) of Australians say Australia is ‘heading in the right direction’ and 28.5% (down 0.5%) say Australia is ‘heading in the wrong direction’.

The Morgan Poll surveys a larger sample (including people who only use a mobile phone) than any other public opinion poll.

Gary Morgan says:

“The L-NP (51.5%, up 2%) has regained the lead over the ALP (48.5%, down 2%) on a two-party preferred basis after former union leader Bill Shorten was elected as the new ALP Leader last weekend. Shorten is the first leader elected under the ALP’s new leadership system which involves a ballot of all ALP members and also a ballot of the Federal ALP caucus.

“Shorten clearly won the caucus ballot (55 cf. 31) over Anthony Albanese, although Albanese easily won the ballot of the entire ALP membership (59.9% cf. 40.1%). The combined weighted vote favoured Shorten (52%) cf. Albanese (48%).

“Today’s Morgan Poll appears to show that the ongoing media speculation about various politician’s dubious ‘expense claims’ – including many in the new Coalition Government – is having a negligible impact on how electors view the Abbott Government.”

Electors were asked: “If an election for the House of Representatives were held today - which party will receive your first preference?”

Visit the Roy Morgan Online Store to browse our range of Voter Profiles by electorate, detailed Voting Intention Demographics Reports and Most important Political Issue Reports (all 150 electorates ranked by an issue).

Finding No. 5254 - This multi-mode Morgan Poll on Federal voting intention was conducted last weekend via SMS, Online and face-to-face interviewing on October 19/20, 2013 with an Australia-wide cross-section of 3,280 Australian electors aged 18+, of all electors surveyed 2.5% (up 1%) did not name a party.


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Data Tables


Morgan Poll on Federal Voting Intention - October 21, 2013

Roy Morgan GCR


Margin of Error

The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. The following table gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. The figures are approximate and for general guidance only, and assume a simple random sample. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.

Sample Size

Percentage Estimate

40%-60%

25% or 75%

10% or 90%

5% or 95%

500

±4.5

±3.9

±2.7

±1.9

1,000

±3.2

±2.7

±1.9

±1.4

1,500

±2.6

±2.2

±1.5

±1.1

2,000

±2.2

±1.9

±1.3

±1.0