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A Labour/ Greens Alliance (46.5%, down 3%) likely to win election with support of NZ First (4.5%) over National Party (42%, up 0.5%)

This latest New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll on voting intention was conducted by telephone – both landline and mobile telephone, with a NZ wide cross-section of 847 electors from October 14-27, 2013. Of all electors surveyed a 3.5% (down 1%) didn’t name a party.

Today’s New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll shows a potential Labour/ Greens Alliance (46.5%, down 3%) with an election winning lead over John Key’s National Party (42%, up 0.5%). Support for Key’s Coalition partners has slightly increased overall with the Maori Party 1.5% (unchanged), ACT NZ 1% (up 0.5%) and United Future 0.5% (up 0.5%).

Support for the Labour Party is 35.5% (down 1.5%), Greens have fallen to 11% (down 1.5%), New Zealand First 4.5% (down 0.5%), Mana Party 0.5% (unchanged), Conservative Party of NZ 2.5% (up 2%) and Others 1% (unchanged).

If a National Election were held now the latest New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll shows that although down a Labour/ Greens alliance would still win with the support of New Zealand First.

The latest NZ Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating has risen to 129 (up 5pts) with 57.5% (up 2.5%) of New Zealanders saying New Zealand is ‘heading in the right direction’ compared to 28.5% (down 2.5%) that say New Zealand is ‘heading in the wrong direction’.

Gary Morgan says:

“Today’s New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll shows a potential Labour/Greens Alliance (46.5%, down 3%) still in a strong position to win Government in a year’s time with the support of New Zealand First (4.5%, down 0.5%).

“National (42%, up 0.5%) have work to do to retain Government although Prime Minister John Key has this week suggested the Conservative Party (2.5%, up 2%) could be a possible Coalition partner for National in a future Government.

“Already this year, United Future MP Peter Dunne and ACT MP John Banks (both Ministers in the National-led Government) have been forced to resign their ministerial posts and their political futures are uncertain.”

Electors were asked: “If a New Zealand Election were held today which party would receive your party vote?”

This latest New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll on voting intention was conducted by telephone – both landline and mobile telephone, with a NZ wide cross-section of 847 electors from October 14-27, 2013. Of all electors surveyed a 3.5% (down 1%) didn’t name a party.

Roy Morgan New Zealand Voting Intention - October 2013


New Zealand GCR


For further information:

Gary Morgan
Office +61 3 9224 5213
Mobile +61 411 129 094

Michele Levine
Office +61 3 9224 5215
Mobile +61 411 129 093


Margin of Error

The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. The following table gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. The figures are approximate and for general guidance only, and assume a simple random sample.

Sample Size

Percentage Estimate

 

40%-60%

25% or 75%

10% or 90%

5% or 95%

1,000

±3.2

±2.7

±1.9

±1.4

1,500

±2.5

±2.2

±1.5

±1.1