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Business Confidence hits new record high in October

Source: Business Confidence, Roy Morgan Business Single Source, average monthly sample, n = 2270
Roy Morgan Research’s latest Business Confidence survey in October 2013 shows that Australian Business Confidence rose to a record high level during the month, building on the extraordinary peak achieved following the September federal election. An increase of 2 points from September to a score of 136.3 is the highest level of Business Confidence recorded since the survey began in December 2010. These figures are the result of 2,922 interviews with business across all industries, sizes and locations around Australia.

For the first time since April 2011 the proportion of Australian businesses reporting that they are better off now than at the same time last year was higher than the proportion reporting they were worse off, with 28.2% better off and 27.7% worse off. The proportion of businesses expecting Australia to have good times financially in the next 12 months also rose to a new record high of 76.7%, while those expecting bad times fell to a new record low of 23.3%. Similarly for the next 5 years, the proportion of businesses expecting good times rose to a record high of 80.4%, compared to a record low for those expecting bad times of 19.7%.

Monthly Business Confidence - Australia

business-confidence
Source: Business Confidence, Roy Morgan Business Single Source, average monthly sample, n = 2270

All States reported an increase in Business Confidence from September, with Queensland, South Australia and Tasmania all reporting the highest values recorded since this series began. The largest increases in Business Confidence were reported in Queensland (up 8.7 points to 133.1) and NSW (up 8.1 to 131.5); the lowest reported increases were in Tasmania (up 2.5 to 126.3) and Victoria (up 2.9 points to 127.8).

The Mining industry in particular reported a large increase in Business Confidence, up 19.1 points to 156.4; the next highest increase was reported in the Administrative and Support Services (up 12.1 points to 134.9). Several industries also reported the highest level of Business Confidence yet recorded, including the Manufacturing industry (126.8 points, up 4.9 points from September), Retail (up 4.6 to 126.3), Accommodation and Food Services (up 3.1 to 126.5), Finance (up 6.4 points to 146.7) and Personal services (up 8.3 points to 122.7).

Nigel Smith, Director of Business Research, Roy Morgan Research, says:

“Business Confidence in October reflects both business approval for the change in Government and a more general improvement in business performance. The Mining industry clearly believes the change in Government will have a beneficial impact on their businesses, despite what appears to be an otherwise negative outlook for that industry.

“While sources such as the Reserve Bank appear to forecast the next 12 months to be particularly tough for Australian businesses, businesses themselves do not appear to share this pessimism. The Retail, Accommodation and Food Services and Personal Services industries, in particular, have their highest figures we have yet recorded coming into the Christmas season.”

Australia’s leading B2B market research

These findings are from the Roy Morgan Business Single Source survey, the most comprehensive B2B research in Australia.

The research covers business confidence, telecommunications, banking & finance and business media use which can be analysed by number of employees, annual turnover, head office and operating locations, sources of revenue and financial performance and expectations.

Ready Made Research reports include Business Confidence and Business Banking Satisfaction.

For comments or more information please contact:

Nigel Smith, Director – Business Research
Telephone: +61 (3) 9223 2439
Mobile: +61 404 061 915
nigel.smith@roymorgan.com

About Roy Morgan Research

Roy Morgan Research is the largest independent Australian research company, with offices in each state of Australia, as well as in New Zealand, the United States and the United Kingdom. A full service research organisation specialising in omnibus and syndicated data, Roy Morgan Research has over 70 years’ experience in collecting objective, independent information on consumers.

In Australia, Roy Morgan Research is considered to be the authoritative source of information on financial behaviour, readership, voting intentions and consumer confidence. Roy Morgan Research is a specialist in recontact customised surveys which provide invaluable and effective qualitative and quantitative information regarding customers and target markets.

Margin of Error

The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. Margin of error gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.

Sample Size

Percentage Estimate

40%-60%

25% or 75%

10% or 90%

5% or 95%

5,000

±1.4

±1.2

±0.8

±0.6

7,500

±1.1

±1.0

±0.7

±0.5

10,000

±1.0

±0.9

±0.6

±0.4

20,000

±0.7

±0.6

±0.4

±0.3

50,000

±0.4

±0.4

±0.3

±0.2