Back To Listing

National Party (45.5%) now ahead of Labour/ Greens (44.5%) as Labour’s new policy on female representation drives men to support National and away from Labour

This latest New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll on voting intention was conducted by telephone – both landline and mobile telephone, with a NZ wide cross-section of 857 electors from October 28 – November 10, 2013. Of all electors surveyed 3% (down 0.5%) didn’t name a party.

Today’s New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll shows John Key’s National Party (45.5%, up 3.5%) holding a small lead over a potential Labour/ Greens Alliance (44.5%, down 2%). Support for Key’s Coalition partners has slightly decreased overall with the Maori Party 1.5% (unchanged), United Future 0.5% (unchanged) and ACT NZ 0% (down 1%).

Support for the Labour Party has fallen to 32% (down 3.5%), the Greens have risen to 12.5% (up 1.5%), New Zealand First 5% (up 0.5%), Mana Party 1% (up 0.5%), Conservative Party of NZ 1.5% (down 1%) and Others 0.5% (down 0.5%).

If a National Election were held now the latest New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll shows that the result would be too close to call.

The latest NZ Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating has risen to 133.5 (up 4.5pts to the highest since January 16-29, 2012) with 61% (up 3.5%) of New Zealanders saying New Zealand is ‘heading in the right direction’ compared to 27.5% (down 1%) that say New Zealand is ‘heading in the wrong direction’.

Gary Morgan says:

“Today’s New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll shows a strong jump to National (45.5%, up 3.5%) – the highest National vote since July. National now leads a potential Labour/Greens Alliance (44.5%, down 2%) for the first time in four months.

“Labour’s controversial policy to increase female representation in the Parliamentary Labour Party appears to have driven men away from Labour and across to National in large numbers over the past fortnight. Driving the increase in support for National was a large jump in support by men, who this week deserted Labour. New Zealand men now clearly favour National (50.5%, up 10%) over Labour (29%, down 5.5%) while female support was down for both of the major parties – National (41%, down 2.5%) and Labour (35%, down 2%).

“The Labour Party’s new policy – which the press have dubbed the ‘man-ban’ – calls for female representation in the Labour caucus to be at 50% by 2017. Currently, 42% of Labour MPs in New Zealand are women and judging by this week’s result the policy has not provided a boost amongst women, but has achieved the outcome of driving men away from Labour in large numbers.”

Electors were asked: “If a New Zealand Election were held today which party would receive your party vote?”

This latest New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll on voting intention was conducted by telephone – both landline and mobile telephone, with a NZ wide cross-section of 857 electors from October 28 – November 10, 2013. Of all electors surveyed 3% (down 0.5%) didn’t name a party.


Roy Morgan New Zealand Voting Intention - November 14, 2013


New Zealand GCR

For further information:

Gary Morgan
Office +61 3 9224 5213
Mobile +61 411 129 094

Michele Levine
Office +61 3 9224 5215
Mobile +61 411 129 093


Margin of Error

The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. The following table gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. The figures are approximate and for general guidance only, and assume a simple random sample.

Sample Size

Percentage Estimate

 

40%-60%

25% or 75%

10% or 90%

5% or 95%

1,000

±3.2

±2.7

±1.9

±1.4

1,500

±2.5

±2.2

±1.5

±1.1