New Zealand real unemployment down 0.3% to 8.5% and a further 8.6% (down 1%) of workforce are under-employed

In the September Quarter 2013 according to Roy Morgan:

New Zealand unemployment was 8.5% (down 0.3% since the June Quarter 2013) of the 2,629,000 in the NZ workforce – an estimated 223,000 (down 5,000) were unemployed and looking for work.

A further 8.6% (down 1%) of the workforce* were under-employed – that is working part-time but looking for more work – 227,000 (down 23,000) New Zealanders.

In total 17.1% of the workforce (450,000, down 28,000) New Zealanders were either unemployed or under-employed.

The latest Roy Morgan unemployment estimate of 8.5% is now 2.3% above the 6.2% currently quoted by Statistics New Zealand for the September Quarter 2013.

Compared to a year ago there are 99,000 more New Zealanders now employed, and unemployment is now 0.3% less than the September Quarter 2012 (8.8%).

Gary Morgan says:

“The latest Roy Morgan New Zealand September Quarter 2013 employment figures show a drop in New Zealand unemployment to 8.5% (down 0.3% from the June Quarter 2013). New Zealand unemployment is now at its lowest since the September Quarter 2008 (6.9%) – five years ago. Unemployment has now dropped substantially since peaking at 11.6% in the March Quarter 2011.

“An additional 8.6% (down 1.0%) of New Zealanders are under-employed – working part-time but looking for more work. This is the lowest level of under-employment since the June Quarter 2011 (7.4%). This is a total of 17.1% (down 1.3%) of New Zealanders that are either unemployed or under-employed – the lowest since September Quarter 2008 at the outset of the Global Financial Crisis – and before John Key became Prime Minister in November 2008.

“In more positive news for the Key Government overall New Zealand employment has risen to 2,405,000 (up 31,000) consisting of a record high 1,667,000 full-time employees (up 45,000) and 738,000 part-time employees (down 14,000). The Roy Morgan unemployment estimate is however still significantly higher than the 6.2% estimate provided by Statistics New Zealand for the June Quarter 2013.”

This Roy Morgan survey on New Zealand’s unemployment and ‘under-employed’* is based on weekly interviews covering July – September 2013 and in total 6,417 New Zealanders aged 14 and over were interviewed.

*The ‘under-employed’ are those people who are in part-time work or consultants who are looking for more work.

For further information:

The Roy Morgan New Zealand Unemployment estimate is obtained by surveying a New Zealand-wide cross section by telephone. An unemployed person is classified as part of the labour force if they are looking for work, no matter when.

The results are not seasonally adjusted and provide an accurate measure of monthly unemployment estimates in New Zealand. The Statistics New Zealand Unemployment estimates are obtained by mostly telephone interviews.

Households selected for the Statistics New Zealand Labour Survey are interviewed each quarter for up to two years (eight interviews), with one-eighth of the sample being replaced each quarter. The first interview is conducted face-to-face. Subsequent interviews are then conducted by telephone.

Statistics New Zealand classifies an unemployed person as part of the labour force only if, when surveyed, they had actively sought work in the past four weeks ending with the reference week and were available for work or had a new job to start within the next four weeks.

Statistics New Zealand Unemployment estimates are also seasonally adjusted. For these reasons the Statistics New Zealand Unemployment estimates are different from the Roy Morgan Unemployment estimate.

There is a similar divergence caused in Australia’s ABS Unemployment estimates and the Roy Morgan Australian Unemployment estimates. Roy Morgan Executive Chairman Gary Morgan's concerns regarding the ABS Unemployment estimate are clearly outlined in his letter to the Australian Financial Review, which was not published.

ROY MORGAN MEASURES REAL UNEMPLOYMENT IN AUSTRALIA
NOT THE ‘PERCEPTION’ OF UNEMPLOYMENT – JUNE 8, 2012.

http://www.roymorgan.com/~/media/Files/Papers/2012/20120603.pdf

Latest Roy Morgan New Zealand Unemployment & Under-employment Data Tables

• Roy Morgan New Zealand Employment Estimates (2001 - 2013)
  
  
• Roy Morgan New Zealand v Statistics New Zealand Employment Estimates (2001 - 2013)
  
  
• Statistics New Zealand Employment Estimates (2001 - 2013)

You can also view our monitor of Monthly Unemployment Figures in Australia.

Margin of Error

The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. The following table gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. The figures are approximate and for general guidance only, and assume a simple random sample. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.