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Parties neck-and-neck in New Zealand 12 months before NZ Election: National Party (44.5%) just behind Labour/ Greens (45%)

This latest New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll on voting intention was conducted by telephone – both landline and mobile telephone, with a NZ wide cross-section of 884 electors from November 11-24, 2013. Of all electors surveyed 2.5% (down 0.5%) didn’t name a party.

Today’s New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll shows John Key’s National Party (44.5%, down 1%) just trailing a potential Labour/ Greens Alliance (45%, up 0.5%). Support for Key’s Coalition partners has changed little overall with the Maori Party 1.5% (unchanged), United Future 0.5% (unchanged) and ACT NZ 0.5% (up 0.5%).

Support for the Labour Party has risen to 34% (up 2%), the Greens have fallen to 11% (down 1.5%), New Zealand First 3.5% (down 1.5%), Mana Party 1% (unchanged), Conservative Party of NZ 2% (up 0.5%) and Others 1.5% (up 1%).

If a National Election were held now the latest New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll shows that the result would be too close to call and depend on minor party support.

The latest NZ Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating has fallen 3.5pts to 130 with 59% (down 2%) of New Zealanders saying New Zealand is ‘heading in the right direction’ compared to 29% (up 1.5%) that say New Zealand is ‘heading in the wrong direction’.

Gary Morgan says:

“Today’s New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll shows National (44.5%, down 1%) now just behind a potential Labour/ Greens alliance (45%, up 0.5%) twelve months before New Zealand heads to the polls for the 2014 New Zealand Election.

“Support for the minor parties shows left-leaning New Zealand First (3.5%, down 1.5%) and the right-leaning Conservative Party (2%, up 0.5%) are the two best supported minor parties that could determine which parties form Government after the election.

“A big test for Prime Minister John Key is the citizen-initiated referendum on the Key Government’s privatisation programme New Zealanders are currently voting on. The referendum asks ‘Do you support the Government selling up to 49% of Meridian Energy, Mighty River Power, Genesis Power, Solid Energy and Air New Zealand?’

The referendum is a big test of Key’s authority and mandate after the Government last week sold more than 220 million shares in Air New Zealand raising $365 million as a result. After the sales Finance Minister Bill English indicated the Government would put partial asset sales on hold after the Genesis Power sale.”

Electors were asked: “If a New Zealand Election were held today which party would receive your party vote?”

This latest New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll on voting intention was conducted by telephone – both landline and mobile telephone, with a NZ wide cross-section of 884 electors from November 11-24, 2013. Of all electors surveyed 2.5% (down 0.5%) didn’t name a party.

Roy Morgan New Zealand Voting Intention - November 27, 2013

New Zealand GCR


For further information:

Gary Morgan
Office +61 3 9224 5213
Mobile +61 411 129 094

Michele Levine
Office +61 3 9224 5215
Mobile +61 411 129 093


Margin of Error

The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. The following table gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. The figures are approximate and for general guidance only, and assume a simple random sample.

Sample Size

Percentage Estimate

 

40%-60%

25% or 75%

10% or 90%

5% or 95%

1,000

±3.2

±2.7

±1.9

±1.4

1,500

±2.5

±2.2

±1.5

±1.1