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ALP (51.5%) gain lead over L-NP (48.5%) after Gonski ‘backflip’

Finding No. 5329 - This multi-mode Morgan Poll on Federal voting intention was conducted via SMS and face-to-face interviewing on the weekend of November 30/ December 1, 2013 with an Australia-wide cross-section of 2,018 Australian electors aged 18+, of all electors surveyed 1% (unchanged) did not name a party.

On a two-party preferred basis the ALP is 51.5%, up 2.5% since the Morgan Poll of November 16/17, 2013. L-NP support is 48.5%, down 2.5%. If an election were held now the result would be a narrow ALP victory according to the Morgan Poll. This multi-mode Morgan Poll on voting intention was conducted last weekend (November 30/December 1, 2013) with an Australia-wide cross-section of 2,018 Australian electors aged 18+.

The L-NP primary vote is 41.5% (down 1%) now just ahead of the ALP primary vote at 38.5% (up 6%).

Among the minor parties Greens support is 8.5% (down 2.5%), support for the Palmer United Party (PUP) is 3.5% (down 1.5%) and support for Independents/Others is 8% (down 1%). Support for PUP is still highest in Clive Palmer’s home State of Queensland (7%).

Analysis by Gender

Analysis by Gender shows this week’s rise in support for the ALP has come from women with the ALP (54%, up 3.5% since November 16/17, 2013) now well ahead of the L-NP (46%, down 3.55%) amongst women on a two party preferred basis. However, support amongst men for the two major parties is little changed with men still favouring the L-NP 51.5% (down 1%) cf. ALP 48.5% (up 1%).

The Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating is now at 113, down 3pts since November 16/17, 2013. Now 48% (down 0.5%) of Australians say Australia is ‘heading in the right direction’ and 35% (up 2.5%) say Australia is ‘heading in the wrong direction’.

The Morgan Poll surveys a larger sample (including people who only use a mobile phone) than any other public opinion poll.

Gary Morgan says:

“The ALP (51.5%, up 2.5% over the past two weeks) has gained the lead over the L-NP (48.5%, down 2.5%) on a two-party preferred basis for the first time since the Federal Election. The ALP primary vote surged to 38% (up 6%) after Education Minister Christopher Pyne last week ditched the ‘Gonski Education reforms’ despite a Coalition pledge prior to the Election that the L-NP was on a ‘unity ticket’ with the ALP in terms of education policies.

“In addition, Treasurer Joe Hockey last week rejected American company ADM’s proposed takeover of Graincorp on national interest grounds and faces a similarly tough decision in relation to Australia’s national carrier – Qantas – which is legislated by the Federal Parliament to remain in majority Australian ownership.

“The continuing saga about revelations Australia tapped the mobile phone of Indonesian President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono and fresh allegations last week of Australian spying on East Timorese politicians prior to sensitive negotiations between Australia and East Timor continues to provide the Government with foreign policy headaches. Indonesia has suspended co-operation with Australia in a number of areas in response to the spying allegations.”

Electors were asked: “If an election for the House of Representatives were held today - which party will receive your first preference?”

Visit the Roy Morgan Online Store to browse our range of Voter Profiles by electorate, detailed Voting Intention Demographics Reports and Most important Political Issue Reports (all 150 electorates ranked by an issue).

Finding No. 5329 - This multi-mode Morgan Poll on Federal voting intention was conducted via SMS and face-to-face interviewing on the weekend of November 30/ December 1, 2013 with an Australia-wide cross-section of 2,018 Australian electors aged 18+, of all electors surveyed 1% (unchanged) did not name a party.


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Data Tables


Morgan Poll - Australian Federal Voting Intention - December 2, 2013

Roy Morgan GCR

Margin of Error

The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. The following table gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. The figures are approximate and for general guidance only, and assume a simple random sample. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.

Sample Size

Percentage Estimate

40%-60%

25% or 75%

10% or 90%

5% or 95%

500

±4.5

±3.9

±2.7

±1.9

1,000

±3.2

±2.7

±1.9

±1.4

1,500

±2.6

±2.2

±1.5

±1.1

2,000

±2.2

±1.9

±1.3

±1.0