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National Party (45%) level with Labour/ Greens (45%) to end 2013

This latest New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll on voting intention was conducted by telephone – both landline and mobile telephone, with a NZ wide cross-section of 873 electors from November 25 – December 8, 2013. Of all electors surveyed 4% (up 1.5%) didn’t name a party.

Today’s New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll shows John Key’s National Party (45%, up 0.5%) level with a potential Labour/ Greens Alliance (45%, unchanged). Support for Key’s Coalition partners is down slightly: Maori Party 1.5% (unchanged), United Future 0% (down 0.5%), ACT NZ 0% (down 0.5%).

Support for the Labour Party has fallen to 30.5% (down 3.5%), while the Greens have risen to 14.5% (up 3.5%), New Zealand First 5% (up 1.5%), Mana Party 1% (unchanged), Conservative Party of NZ 2% (unchanged) and Others 0.5% (down 1%).

If a National Election were held now the latest New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll shows that the result would be too close to call and depend on minor party support.

The latest NZ Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating is unchanged at 130pts with 58.5% (down 0.5%) of New Zealanders saying New Zealand is ‘heading in the right direction’ compared to 28.5% (down 0.5%) that say New Zealand is ‘heading in the wrong direction’.

Gary Morgan says:

“Today’s New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll shows National (45%, up 0.5%) now exactly level with a potential Labour/ Greens alliance (45%, unchanged) just over a week before New Zealanders enjoy their Christmas and New Year’s Holidays.

“If a National Election were held now the latest New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll shows that minor parties including New Zealand First (5%, up 1.5%), the Conservative Party of NZ (2%, unchanged), the Maori Party (1.5%, unchanged) and the Mana Party (1%, unchanged) will determine the shape of New Zealand’s next Government.

“Despite a drop in support, the main opposition Labour Party received a boost in recent weeks with a comprehensive victory at the Christchurch East by-election – Labour candidate Poto Williams (8,119 votes) easily defeated National’s Matthew Doocey (3,506 votes) in a seat Labour has held continuously since it was re-established for the 1996 New Zealand Election.”


Electors were asked: “If a New Zealand Election were held today which party would receive your party vote?”

This latest New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll on voting intention was conducted by telephone – both landline and mobile telephone, with a NZ wide cross-section of 873 electors from November 25 – December 8, 2013. Of all electors surveyed 4% (up 1.5%) didn’t name a party.

Roy Morgan New Zealand Voting Intention - December 11, 2013

New Zealand GCR




For further information:

Gary Morgan
Office +61 3 9224 5213
Mobile +61 411 129 094

Michele Levine
Office +61 3 9224 5215
Mobile +61 411 129 093


Margin of Error

The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. The following table gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. The figures are approximate and for general guidance only, and assume a simple random sample.

Sample Size

Percentage Estimate

 

40%-60%

25% or 75%

10% or 90%

5% or 95%

1,000

±3.2

±2.7

±1.9

±1.4

1,500

±2.5

±2.2

±1.5

±1.1