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ALP (52.5%) increases lead over L-NP (47.5%) after Holden decision to cease manufacturing in 2017 and Roy Morgan Government Confidence lowest since Federal Election

Finding No. 5353 - This multi-mode Morgan Poll on Federal voting intention was conducted via SMS and face-to-face interviewing on the weekends of December 7/8 & 14/15, 2013 with an Australia-wide cross-section of 2,879 Australian electors aged 18+, of all electors surveyed 1% (unchanged) did not name a party.

On a two-party preferred basis the ALP is 52.5%, up 1% since the Morgan Poll of November 30/ December 1, 2013. L-NP support is 47.5%, down 1%. If an election were held now the result would be an ALP victory according to the Morgan Poll. This multi-mode Morgan Poll on voting intention was conducted over the last two weekends (December 7/8 & 14/15, 2013) with an Australia-wide cross-section of 2,879 Australian electors aged 18+.

The L-NP primary vote is 40.5% (down 1%) just ahead of the ALP primary vote at 38.5% (unchanged).

Among the minor parties Greens support is 10% (up 1.5%), support for the Palmer United Party (PUP) is 3.5% (unchanged) and support for Independents/Others is 7.5% (down 0.5%). Support for PUP is still clearly highest in Clive Palmer’s home State of Queensland (5.5%).

Analysis by Gender

Analysis by Gender shows this week’s rise in support for the ALP has come from women with the ALP (58%, up 4% since November 30/ December 1, 2013) now well ahead of the L-NP (42%, down 4%) amongst women on a two party preferred basis. However, support amongst men for the two major parties is little changed with men still favouring the L-NP 53% (up 1.5%) cf. ALP 47% (down 1.5%).

Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating

The Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating has fallen to 103.5 (down 9.5pts since November 30/ December 1, 2013) and now at its lowest point since the recent Federal Election. Now 42% (down 6%) of Australians say Australia is ‘heading in the right direction’ and 38.5% (up 3.5%) say Australia is ‘heading in the wrong direction’.

The Morgan Poll surveys a larger sample (including people who only use a mobile phone) than any other public opinion poll.

Gary Morgan says:

“The ALP (52.5%, up 1% over the past two weeks) has increased its lead over the L-NP (47.5%, down 1%) on a two-party preferred basis after Holden’s decision to cease manufacturing in Australia in 2017 was announced last week. Last week also saw the Abbott Government’s successful High Court challenge to the ACT’s same-sex marriage laws which were struck down by the High Court as inconsistent with the Federal marriage legislation.

“It is important to note that the rise in ALP support has come entirely from women with women now heavily favouring the ALP (58%, up 4%) over the L-NP (42%, down 4%) on a two-party preferred basis however men still favour the L-NP (53%, up 1.5%) over the ALP (47%, down 1.5%).

“Worryingly for the Abbott Government, which reached 100 days in office today, the Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating has ‘crashed’ to 103.5pts (down 9.5pts) and is now at its lowest since the Coalition won the recent Federal Election. Treasurer Joe Hockey is due to deliver the Mid Year Economic and Fiscal Outlook (MYEFO) tomorrow which is believed to contain further bad news about the state of the Federal Budget. The Government will hope that the bad news of the last few weeks will be long forgotten when Parliament resumes in mid-February 2014.”

Electors were asked: “If an election for the House of Representatives were held today - which party will receive your first preference?” Visit the Roy Morgan Online Store to browse our range of Voter Profiles by electorate, detailed Voting Intention Demographics Reports and Most important Political Issue Reports (all 150 electorates ranked by an issue).

Finding No. 5353 - This multi-mode Morgan Poll on Federal voting intention was conducted via SMS and face-to-face interviewing on the weekends of December 7/8 & 14/15, 2013 with an Australia-wide cross-section of 2,879 Australian electors aged 18+, of all electors surveyed 1% (unchanged) did not name a party.


For further information:

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Gary Morgan:

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Michele Levine:

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Data Tables


Morgan Poll on Federal Voting Intention - December 16, 2013

Roy Morgan GCR

Margin of Error

The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. The following table gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. The figures are approximate and for general guidance only, and assume a simple random sample. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.

Sample Size

Percentage Estimate

40%-60%

25% or 75%

10% or 90%

5% or 95%

500

±4.5

±3.9

±2.7

±1.9

1,000

±3.2

±2.7

±1.9

±1.4

1,500

±2.6

±2.2

±1.5

±1.1

2,000

±2.2

±1.9

±1.3

±1.0