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Jokowi (41%, up 4%) strengthens lead for Presidency over challengers Prabowo Subianto (15%, unchanged) and Aburizal Bakrie (13%, down 1%)

Finding No. 5360 - This Morgan Poll on Indonesian Presidential and Parliamentary voting intention was conducted in November 2013 with an Indonesian-wide cross-section of 2,960 electors aged 17+. Face-to-face interviews were conducted in all 33 provinces, with effort made to ensure a balanced sample representing the electorate both geographically and demographically. 8% of electors couldn’t say who they support in the Presidential Election and 14% of electors couldn’t say who they support in the Parliamentary Elections.

Governor of Jakarta, Joko Widodo – better known as Jokowi – is now the preferred candidate of 41% (up 4% in a month) of Indonesians to succeed Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono (SBY) as the next President of Indonesia at next July’s Indonesian Presidential Elections. Jokowi is clearly favoured ahead of Prabowo Subianto (15%, unchanged) and Aburizal Bakrie (13%, down 1%).

All three are well ahead of Jusuf Kalla (6%, up 1%), former President Megawati Sukarnoputri  (5%, down 1%) and Dahlan Iskan (5%, down 1%) who are themselves just ahead of Mahfud MD (2%, down 1%) and Hatta Rajasa (2%, unchanged). A further 11% (down 1%) of Indonesians support other candidates – none of whom have more than 1% support and a further 8% can’t say who they support.

Parliamentary Elections

The Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI-P) – the party of Jokowi, and also former President Megawati Sukarnoputri has strengthened its lead and is now supported by 29% (up 5% in a month) of Indonesians for the Parliamentary Elections scheduled for April 2014.

This is clearly ahead of former ruling party Golkar (21%, unchanged) and Partai Demokrat (14%, down 1%) – the party of current president SBY. Just behind is Partai Gerindra (12%, unchanged) – the party of prominent Presidential candidate Prabowo Subianto.

Support for other parties is split many ways – PAN (5%, unchanged), PKB (5%, down 2%), PKS (5%, unchanged), Partai Hanura (5%, unchanged), PPP (2%, unchanged) and Partai NasDem (2%, unchanged) and 14% can’t say who they support.

Debnath Guharoy says:

"The Jokowi phenomenon continues to rise. It has reached a level unseen in any multi-party democracy. He is pulling his party up, as his own popularity grows across the country. In contrast, the power of party leader Megawati Soekarnoputri is on the decline. Of the two PDI-P stalwarts, the choice of the voter is clear.

Time is running out for a new challenger to emerge. It takes time to build a brand and there are just a few months left till the first round of elections."

Electors were asked: "If general elections for members of DPR were held now, which party's candidate would you vote for?" And for the presidential poll "Who would you most likely vote for as president in the next general elections?”

Finding No. 5360 - This Morgan Poll on Indonesian Presidential and Parliamentary voting intention was conducted in November 2013 with an Indonesian-wide cross-section of 2,960 electors aged 17+. Face-to-face interviews were conducted in all 33 provinces, with effort made to ensure a balanced sample representing the electorate both geographically and demographically. 8% of electors couldn’t say who they support in the Presidential Election and 14% of electors couldn’t say who they support in the Parliamentary Elections.

 

For further information:

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Debnath Guharoy:

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Ira Soekirman:

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Indonesian Presidential Voting Intention


 

 

Presidential Voting Intention

Presidential Candidates

October 2013

November 2013

 

%

%

Jokowi (Joko Widodo)

37

41

Prabowo Subianto

15

15

Aburizal Bakrie

14

13

Jusuf Kalla

5

6

Dahlan Iskan

6

5

Megawati Sukarnoputri

6

5

Mahfud MD

3

2

Hatta Rajasa

2

2

Other*

12

11

TOTAL

100

100

*All other candidates asked – Ani Yudhoyono, Surya Paloh, Sri Sultan Hamengkubuwono X, Djoko Suyanto,
Pramono Edhie Wibowo, Gita Wirjawan, Sutiyoso and Sri Mulyani Indrawati got less than 2% of the vote.


Indonesian Parliamentary Voting Intention

 

 

Parliamentary Voting Intention

Political Parties

October 2013

November 2013

 

%

%

PDIP

24

29

Partai Golkar

21

21

Partai Demokrat

15

14

Partai Gerindra

13

12

PAN

5

5

PKB

7

5

PKS

5

5

Partai Hanura

5

5

PPP

2

2

Partai NasDem

2

2

PBB

1

0

TOTAL

100

100


Margin of Error

The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. The following table gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. The figures are approximate and for general guidance only, and assume a simple random sample. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.

Sample Size

Percentage Estimate

40%-60%

25% or 75%

10% or 90%

5% or 95%

1,000

±3.2

±2.7

±1.9

±1.4

2,000

±2.2

±1.9

±1.3

±1.0

3,000

±1.8

±1.6

±1.1

±0.8