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ALP (52.5%) start 2014 with a clear lead over the L-NP (47.5%) in first major public opinion poll of 2014

Finding No. 5371 - This multi-mode Morgan Poll on Federal voting intention was conducted via SMS and face-to-face interviewing on the weekends of January 4/5 & 11/12, 2014 with an Australia-wide cross-section of 2,527 Australian electors aged 18+, of all electors surveyed 1.5% (up 0.5%) did not name a party.

On a two-party preferred basis the ALP is 52.5%, unchanged since the Morgan Poll of December 7/8 & 14/15, 2013. L-NP support is 47.5%, also unchanged. If an election were held now the result would be an ALP victory according to the Morgan Poll. This multi-mode Morgan Poll on voting intention was conducted over the last two weekends (January 4/5 & 11/12, 2014) with an Australia-wide cross-section of 2,527 Australian electors aged 18+.

The L-NP primary vote is 39% (down 1.5%) just ahead of the ALP primary vote at 38% (down 0.5%).

Among the minor parties Greens support is 10.5% (up 0.5%), support for the Palmer United Party (PUP) is 3.5% (unchanged) and support for Independents/Others is 9% (up 1.5%). Support for PUP is still clearly highest in Clive Palmer’s home State of Queensland (6%).

Analysis by Gender

Analysis by Gender shows that despite falling, ALP support is strongest amongst women with the ALP (55.5%, down 2.5% since December 7/8 & 14/15, 2013) well ahead of the L-NP (44.5%, up 2.5%) on a two-party preferred basis. However, support amongst men is nearly evenly split for the two major parties with men favouring the L-NP 51% (down 2%) cf. ALP 49% (up 2%).

Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating

The Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating has risen to 109 (up 5.5pts since December 7/8 & 14/15, 2013). Now 45% (up 3%) of Australians say Australia is ‘heading in the right direction’ and 36% (down 2.5%) say Australia is ‘heading in the wrong direction’.

The Morgan Poll surveys a larger sample (including people who only use a mobile phone) than any other public opinion poll.

Gary Morgan says:

“The ALP (52.5%, unchanged since the final Morgan Poll of 2013) has maintained its clear lead over the L-NP (47.5%, unchanged) on a two-party preferred basis in the first major public opinion poll of 2014. The ALP’s lead is stronger amongst women: ALP (55.5%, down 2.5%) cf. L-NP (44.5%, up 2.5%) while men give the L-NP (51%, down 2%) cf. ALP (49%, up 2%) a slight advantage on a two-party preferred basis.

“The New Year begins with concerning news for the Abbott Government as today’s Roy Morgan December unemployment figures show Australian unemployment rising to 1.411 million (up 143,000 from November 2013). The Roy Morgan unemployment rate of 11.2% is the highest since January 1995 (11.3%) – nearly twenty years ago. In addition, a further 1.092 million Australians (8.6% of the workforce) are under-employed. A record high total of 2.503 million (up 99,000) Australians are looking for work or looking for more work.

“These results show the most important priority for the Abbott Government in 2014 is to undertake significant labour market reforms – Australia’s full-time employment has dropped to 7.395 million – the lowest since January 2013 (7.196 million). The decline in full-time employment is a clear indicator that businesses are reluctant to hire full-time employees, a key to ensuring Australia’s economy grows strongly.”

Electors were asked: “If an election for the House of Representatives were held today - which party will receive your first preference?” Visit the Roy Morgan Online Store to browse our range of Voter Profiles by electorate, detailed Voting Intention Demographics Reports and Most important Political Issue Reports (all 150 electorates ranked by an issue).

Finding No. 5371 - This multi-mode Morgan Poll on Federal voting intention was conducted via SMS and face-to-face interviewing on the weekends of January 4/5 & 11/12, 2014 with an Australia-wide cross-section of 2,527 Australian electors aged 18+, of all electors surveyed 1.5% (up 0.5%) did not name a party.


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Data Tables


Federal Voting Intention - January 13, 2014

Roy Morgan GCR

Margin of Error

The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. The following table gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. The figures are approximate and for general guidance only, and assume a simple random sample. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.

Sample Size

Percentage Estimate

40%-60%

25% or 75%

10% or 90%

5% or 95%

500

±4.5

±3.9

±2.7

±1.9

1,000

±3.2

±2.7

±1.9

±1.4

1,500

±2.6

±2.2

±1.5

±1.1

2,000

±2.2

±1.9

±1.3

±1.0