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Jokowi (38%, down 3%) still clearly favoured for Presidency over challengers Prabowo Subianto (14%, down 1%) and Aburizal Bakrie (12%, down 1%)

Finding No. 5388 - This Morgan Poll on Indonesian Presidential and Parliamentary voting intention was conducted in December 2013 with an Indonesian-wide cross-section of 2,144 electors aged 17+. Face-to-face interviews were conducted in all 33 provinces, with effort made to ensure a balanced sample representing the electorate both geographically and demographically. 9% (up 1%) of electors couldn’t say who they support in the Presidential Election and 12% (down 2%) of electors couldn’t say who they support in the Parliamentary Elections.

Governor of Jakarta, Joko Widodo (38%, down 3%) – better known as Jokowi – remains the clearly preferred candidate for the Indonesian Presidency despite a drop in support in December at next July’s Indonesian Presidential Elections. Jokowi is clearly favoured ahead of Prabowo Subianto (14%, down 1%) and Aburizal Bakrie (12%, down 1%).

All three are well ahead of Wiranto (6%), former President Megawati Sukarnoputri  (5%,  unchanged),  Jusuf Kalla (5%, unchanged), Dahlan Iskan (5%, unchanged) and Mahfud MD (4%, up 2%). Hatta Rajasa (3%, up 1%) and Ani Yudhoyono (2%) are the only other candidates with more than 1% support. A further 6% (down 5%) of Indonesians support other candidates.

Parliamentary Elections

The Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI-P) – the party of Jokowi, and also former President Megawati Sukarnoputri has maintained its strong lead and is now supported by 26% (down 3% in a month) of Indonesians for the Parliamentary Elections scheduled for April 2014.

This is clearly ahead of former ruling party Golkar (20%, down 1%) and Partai Demokrat (14%, unchanged) – the party of current president SBY. Just behind is Partai Gerindra (12%, unchanged) – the party of prominent Presidential candidate Prabowo Subianto.

Support for other parties is split many ways – PKB (6%, up 1%), Partai Hanura (6%, up 1%), PAN (5%, unchanged), PKS (4%, down 1%), Partai NasDem (3%, up 1%), PPP (2%, unchanged), PBB (1%, up 1%) and Other (1%, up 1%) while a further 12% can’t say who they support.


Electors were asked: "If general elections for members of DPR were held now, which party's candidate would you vote for?" And for the presidential poll "Who would you most likely vote for as president in the next general elections?”

Finding No. 5388 - This Morgan Poll on Indonesian Presidential and Parliamentary voting intention was conducted in December 2013 with an Indonesian-wide cross-section of 2,144 electors aged 17+. Face-to-face interviews were conducted in all 33 provinces, with effort made to ensure a balanced sample representing the electorate both geographically and demographically. 9% (up 1%) of electors couldn’t say who they support in the Presidential Election and 12% (down 2%) of electors couldn’t say who they support in the Parliamentary Elections.


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Indonesian Presidential Voting Intention


Presidential Voting Intention

Presidential Candidates

October 2013

November 2013

December 2013

 

%

%

%

Jokowi (Joko Widodo)

37

41

38

Prabowo Subianto

15

15

14

Aburizal Bakrie

14

13

12

Wiranto

n/a

n/a

6

Megawati Sukarnoputri

6

5

5

Jusuf Kalla

5

6

5

Dahlan Iskan

6

5

5

Mahfud MD

3

2

4

Hatta Rajasa

2

2

3

Ani Yudhoyono

n/a

n/a

2

Other*

12

11

6

TOTAL

100

100

100

*All other candidates asked – Surya Paloh, Sri Sultan Hamengkubuwono X, Djoko Suyanto, Anies Rasyid Baswedan, Yusril Ihza Mahendra, Pramono Edhie Wibowo, Gita Wirjawan and Sri Mulyani Indrawati got less than 2% of the vote.


Indonesian Parliamentary Voting Intention


Parliamentary Voting Intention

Political Parties

October 2013

November 2013

December 2013


%

%

%

PDIP

24

29

26

Partai Golkar

21

21

20

Partai Demokrat

15

14

14

Partai Gerindra

13

12

12

PKB

7

5

6

Partai Hanura

5

5

6

PAN

5

5

5

PKS

5

5

4

Partai NasDem

2

2

3

PPP

2

2

2

PBB

1

0

1

Other

0

0

1

TOTAL

100

100

100


Margin of Error

The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. The following table gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. The figures are approximate and for general guidance only, and assume a simple random sample. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.

Sample Size

Percentage Estimate

40%-60%

25% or 75%

10% or 90%

5% or 95%

1,000

±3.2

±2.7

±1.9

±1.4

2,000

±2.2

±1.9

±1.3

±1.0

3,000

±1.8

±1.6

±1.1

±0.8