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ALP (53%, up 0.5%) increases clear lead over L-NP (47%, down 0.5%). Government Confidence lowest since Abbott Government elected

Finding No. 5399 - This multi-mode Morgan Poll on Federal voting intention was conducted via SMS and face-to-face interviewing on the weekends of January 18/19 & 25/26, 2014 with an Australia-wide cross-section of 3,019 Australian electors aged 18+, of all electors surveyed 2% (up 0.5%) did not name a party.

On a two-party preferred basis the ALP is 53% (up 0.5% since the Morgan Poll of January 4/5 & 11/12, 2014). L-NP support is 47%, down 0.5%. If an election were held now the result would be a clear ALP victory according to the Morgan Poll. This multi-mode Morgan Poll on voting intention was conducted over the last two weekends (January 18/19 & 25/26, 2014) with an Australia-wide cross-section of 3,019 Australian electors aged 18+.

The L-NP primary vote is 39.5% (up 0.5%) ahead of the ALP primary vote at 37% (down 1%).

Among the minor parties Greens support is 11.5% (up 1%), support for the Palmer United Party (PUP) is 3% (down 0.5%) and support for Independents/Others is 9% (unchanged). Support for PUP is clearly highest in Tasmania (9.5%). This is a good sign for PUP given Tasmanians are due to vote in a crucial State Election in just under seven weeks (March 15, 2014).

Analysis by Gender

Analysis by Gender shows that despite falling, ALP support is still strongest amongst women with the ALP (54%, down 1.5% since January 4/5 & 11/12, 2014) well ahead of the L-NP (46%, up 1.5%) on a two-party preferred basis. However, support amongst men now also favours the ALP 52% (up 3%) cf. L-NP 48% (down 3%).

Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating

The Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating has fallen to 102 (down 7pts since January 4/5 & 11/12, 2014). Now 41.5% (down 3.5%) of Australians say Australia is ‘heading in the right direction’ and 39.5% (up 3.5%) say Australia is ‘heading in the wrong direction’.

The Morgan Poll surveys a larger sample (including people who only use a mobile phone) than any other public opinion poll.

Gary Morgan says:

“The ALP (53%, up 0.5% since January 4/5 & 11/12, 2014) has increased its clear lead over the L-NP (47%, down 0.5%) on a two-party preferred basis as Australians celebrate the Australia Day long weekend. Despite a small fall, the ALP’s lead remains stronger amongst women: ALP (54%, down 1.5%) cf. L-NP (46%, up 1.5%) than men: ALP (52%, up 3%) cf. L-NP (48%, down 3%).

“An additional worry for Prime Minister Tony Abbott is the drop in the Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating to 102 (down 7pts). This is the lowest Government Confidence Rating since the L-NP won the Federal Election in early September.

“Today’s Morgan Poll shows the Abbott Government must work to regain the support of Australians. The most important policy priority for the Abbott Government over the next three years will be increasing productivity in the Australian economy and reforming Australia’s labour laws to encourage employers to hire more workers.

“Today’s AFR article – “Holiday costs force shops to shut’ by Marianna Papadakis” raises the real issue – Government I.R. regulations are stopping employment. Working for the dole will do little to solve the problem. Regulations such as the absurd high costs of penalty rates meaning shops are closed on public holidays because it is uneconomic for them to open, rather than providing employment for the many Australians looking for work.

“The Roy Morgan December 2013 employment figures show a record high total of 2.503 million Australians (19.8% of the workforce) are looking for work or looking for more work. Reducing this number significantly is the only way the Abbott Government can regain support and win re-election at the end of 2016.”

Electors were asked: “If an election for the House of Representatives were held today - which party will receive your first preference?” Visit the Roy Morgan Online Store to browse our range of Voter Profiles by electorate, detailed Voting Intention Demographics Reports and Most important Political Issue Reports (all 150 electorates ranked by an issue).

Finding No. 5399 - This multi-mode Morgan Poll on Federal voting intention was conducted via SMS and face-to-face interviewing on the weekends of January 18/19 & 25/26, 2014 with an Australia-wide cross-section of 3,019 Australian electors aged 18+, of all electors surveyed 2% (up 0.5%) did not name a party.


For further information:

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Gary Morgan:

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Michele Levine:

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Data Tables


Morgan Poll on Federal Voting Intention - January 28, 2014

Roy Morgan GCR

Margin of Error

The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. The following table gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. The figures are approximate and for general guidance only, and assume a simple random sample. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.

Sample Size

Percentage Estimate

40%-60%

25% or 75%

10% or 90%

5% or 95%

500

±4.5

±3.9

±2.7

±1.9

1,000

±3.2

±2.7

±1.9

±1.4

1,500

±2.6

±2.2

±1.5

±1.1

2,000

±2.2

±1.9

±1.3

±1.0