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New Zealand real unemployment steady at 8.5% and a further 11.3% (up 2.7%) of workforce are under-employed

This Roy Morgan survey on New Zealand’s unemployment and ‘under-employed’* is based on weekly interviews covering October - December 2013 and in total 6,239 New Zealanders aged 14 and over were interviewed.

In the December Quarter 2013 according to Roy Morgan:

New Zealand unemployment was 8.5% (unchanged since the September Quarter 2013) of the 2,614,000 in the NZ workforce – an estimated 223,000 (unchanged) were unemployed and looking for work.

A further 11.3% (up 2.7%) of the workforce* were under-employed – that is working part-time but looking for more work – 296,000 (up 69,000) New Zealanders.

In total 19.8% of the workforce (519,000, up 69,000) New Zealanders were either unemployed or under-employed.

The latest Roy Morgan unemployment estimate of 8.5% is now 2.3% above the 6.2% currently quoted by Statistics New Zealand for the September Quarter 2013.

Compared to a year ago there are 37,000 more New Zealanders now employed, and unemployment is now 0.9% less than the December Quarter 2012 (9.4%).

 

            Roy Morgan New Zealand Unemployed and ‘Under-employed’* Estimate



Unemployed or
‘Under-employed’*

Unemployed

Unemployed looking for

‘Under-employed’*

Full-time

Part-time

2009

‘000

%

‘000

%

‘000

‘000

‘000

%

Jan–Mar 2009

438

17.6

214

8.6

80

134

224

9.0

Apr-June 2009

443

18.1

243

9.9

119

124

200

8.2

July-Sep 2009

495

20.5

266

11.0

126

140

229

9.5

Oct-Dec 2009

496

20.2

270

11.0

151

119

226

9.2

2010

Jan–Mar 2010

435

17.4

252

10.1

129

123

183

7.3

Apr-June 2010

472

19.3

237

9.7

130

107

235

9.6

July-Sep 2010

436

17.8

223

9.1

116

107

213

8.7

Oct-Dec 2010

486

20.0

261

10.8

119

143

225

9.3

2011

Jan–Mar 2011

510

20.5

288

11.6

149

139

222

8.9

Apr-June 2011

418

17.1

237

9.7

116

121

181

7.4

July-Sep 2011

457

18.4

234

9.4

141

93

223

9.0

Oct-Dec 2011

493

19.0

245

9.4

118

127

248

9.9

2012

Jan–Mar 2012

515

20.3

286

11.1

125

161

229

9.2

Apr-June 2012

467

18.7

228

9.1

105

123

239

9.6

July-Sep 2012

449

17.7

223

8.8

124

99

226

8.9

Oct-Dec 2012

505

19.5

243

9.4

124

119

262

10.1

2013

Jan-Mar 2013

518

19.9

252

9.7

139

113

266

10.2

Apr-Jun 2013

478

18.4

228

8.8

122

106

250

9.6

Jul-Sep 2013

450

17.1

223

8.5

102

121

227

8.6

Oct-Dec 2013

519

19.8

223

8.5

104

119

296

11.3

Gary Morgan says:

“The latest Roy Morgan New Zealand December Quarter 2013 employment figures show New Zealand unemployment at 8.5% (unchanged from September Quarter 2013). However, New Zealand under-employment – those working part-time but looking for more work – has jumped to a record high 11.3% (up 2.7%). It should be noted that this is the fourth year in a row that under-employment has increased in the December Quarter. However, this year’s increase is substantially larger than in previous years and must represent a major concern for Prime Minister John Key seeking re-election.

“This means a total of 19.8% (up 2.7%) New Zealanders are either unemployed or under-employed – almost identical to the figure earlier last year in the March Quarter 2013 of 19.9%. Total New Zealand unemployment and under-employment is also significantly higher than when Prime Minister John Key won the 2011 Election (19.0%). Key clearly needs to reduce unemployment and under-employment during 2014 to have a strong chance of winning re-election to a third term in November.

“The latest New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll shows a potential Labour/ Greens alliance (46%) with a strong lead over Key’s National (43.5%) in January with the result of the election likely to depend on support from a range of minor parties contesting the election.”

This Roy Morgan survey on New Zealand’s unemployment and ‘under-employed’* is based on weekly interviews covering October - December 2013 and in total 6,239 New Zealanders aged 14 and over were interviewed. *The ‘under-employed’ are those people who are in part-time work or consultants who are looking for more work.


For further information:

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The Roy Morgan New Zealand Unemployment estimate is obtained by surveying a New Zealand-wide cross section by telephone. An unemployed person is classified as part of the labour force if they are looking for work, no matter when.

The results are not seasonally adjusted and provide an accurate measure of monthly unemployment estimates in New Zealand. The Statistics New Zealand Unemployment estimates are obtained by mostly telephone interviews.

Households selected for the Statistics New Zealand Labour Survey are interviewed each quarter for up to two years (eight interviews), with one-eighth of the sample being replaced each quarter. The first interview is conducted face-to-face. Subsequent interviews are then conducted by telephone.

Statistics New Zealand classifies an unemployed person as part of the labour force only if, when surveyed, they had actively sought work in the past four weeks ending with the reference week and were available for work or had a new job to start within the next four weeks.

Statistics New Zealand Unemployment estimates are also seasonally adjusted. For these reasons the Statistics New Zealand Unemployment estimates are different from the Roy Morgan Unemployment estimate.

There is a similar divergence caused in Australia’s ABS Unemployment estimates and the Roy Morgan Australian Unemployment estimates. Roy Morgan Executive Chairman Gary Morgan's concerns regarding the ABS Unemployment estimate are clearly outlined in his letter to the Australian Financial Review, which was not published.

ROY MORGAN MEASURES REAL UNEMPLOYMENT IN AUSTRALIA
NOT THE ‘PERCEPTION’ OF UNEMPLOYMENT – JUNE 8, 2012.

Roy Morgan New Zealand Unemployment & Under-employment - December Quarter 2013

Roy Morgan New Zealand v Statistics New Zealand Unemployment


Latest Roy Morgan New Zealand Unemployment & Under-employment Data Tables

You can also view our monitor of Monthly Unemployment Figures in Australia.


Margin of Error

The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. The following table gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. The figures are approximate and for general guidance only, and assume a simple random sample. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.

Sample Size % Estimate
40%-60% 25% or 75% 10% or 90% 5% or 95%
1,000 ±3.2 ±2.7 ±1.9 ±1.4
10,000 ±1.0 ±0.9 ±0.6 ±0.4
20,000 ±0.7 ±0.6 ±0.4 ±0.3
50,000 ±0.4 ±0.4 ±0.3 ±0.2