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National (47%) regains lead from Labour/ Greens (44%). Kim Dotcom faces uphill battle to win a seat as his new Internet Party has only 0.5% support

This latest New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll on voting intention was conducted by telephone – both landline and mobile telephone, with a NZ wide cross-section of 846 electors from January 20 – February 2, 2014. Of all electors surveyed 4% (unchanged) didn’t name a party.

Today’s New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll shows National (47%, up 3.5%) regaining a lead over a potential Labour/ Greens alliance (44%, down 2%) for the first time since November 2013. However, support for Key’s Coalition partners has fallen slightly: Maori Party 1.5% (down 0.5%), United Future 0% (down 0.5%), ACT NZ 0% (unchanged).

Support for the Labour Party has fallen slightly to 33% (down 0.5%), while the Greens have fallen to 11% (down 1.5%), New Zealand First 4.5% (up 0.5%), Mana Party 1% (up 0.5%), Conservative Party of NZ 1.5% (down 1%).

Support for Kim Dotcom’s new Internet Party is only 0.5%, and the Internet Party will struggle to win a seat with such low support while support for Others is now 0% (down 1%).

If a National Election were held now the latest New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll shows that the result would be too close to call and depend on minor party support.

The latest NZ Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating is virtually unchanged at 139pts (down 0.5pts) with 63.5% (up 0.5%) of New Zealanders saying New Zealand is ‘heading in the right direction’ compared to 24.5% (up 1%) that say New Zealand is ‘heading in the wrong direction’.

Gary Morgan says:

“Today’s New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll shows National (47%, up 3.5%) ahead of a potential Labour/ Greens alliance (44%, down 2%) for the first time since November 2013. Today’s poll also shows Kim Dotcom’s new Internet Party will struggle to win a seat at this year’s election – gaining only 0.5% support.

“The resurgence for National comes as Prime Minister John Key has raised the possibility of a referendum on changing the New Zealand Flag coinciding with this year’s election. Key made the point that Canada, which changed its national flag in 1965 to a maple leaf, had never regretted its decision to remove the Union Jack.

“However, despite this week’s improvement for National the latest Roy Morgan New Zealand December Quarter employment statistics show 19.8% (up 2.7% since the September Quarter) of New Zealanders are unemployed or under-employed. A total of 519,000 New Zealanders (up 69,000). For John Key and National to retain their current lead and stand a good chance of re-election at the end of the year, further reforms are needed to reduce labour market regulation and provide real opportunity for the more than half a million New Zealanders looking for work or looking for more work to find gainful employment.”

Electors were asked: “If a New Zealand Election were held today which party would receive your party vote?” 

This latest New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll on voting intention was conducted by telephone – both landline and mobile telephone, with a NZ wide cross-section of 846 electors from January 20 – February 2, 2014. Of all electors surveyed 4% (unchanged) didn’t name a party.

Roy Morgan New Zealand Voting Intention - February 4, 2014

New Zealand GCR

For further information:

Gary Morgan
Office +61 3 9224 5213
Mobile +61 411 129 094

Michele Levine
Office +61 3 9224 5215
Mobile +61 411 129 093


Margin of Error

The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. The following table gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. The figures are approximate and for general guidance only, and assume a simple random sample.

Sample Size

Percentage Estimate

 

40%-60%

25% or 75%

10% or 90%

5% or 95%

1,000

±3.2

±2.7

±1.9

±1.4

1,500

±2.5

±2.2

±1.5

±1.1