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National (48%) increases lead over Labour/ Greens (42%) – biggest lead for National since July 2013

This latest New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll on voting intention was conducted by telephone – both landline and mobile telephone, with a NZ wide cross-section of 859 electors from February 3-16, 2014. Of all electors surveyed 4% (unchanged) didn’t name a party.

Today’s New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll shows National (48%, up 1%) increasing its lead over a potential Labour/ Greens alliance (42%, down 2%). Support for Key’s Coalition partners shows the Maori Party 0.5% (down 1%), ACT NZ (1%, up 1%) and United Future 0.5% (up 0.5%).

Support for the Labour Party has fallen sharply to 30% (down 3%), while the Greens have risen to 12% (up 1%), New Zealand First 5.5% (up 1%), Mana Party 1% (unchanged), Conservative Party of NZ 1% (down 0.5%) and Internet Party (0.5%, unchanged) while support for Others is now 0% (unchanged).

If a National Election were held now the latest New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll shows that National would be returned to power.

The latest NZ Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating is virtually unchanged at 140pts (up 1pt) with 63.5% (unchanged) of New Zealanders saying New Zealand is ‘heading in the right direction’ compared to 23.5% (down 1%) that say New Zealand is ‘heading in the wrong direction’.

Gary Morgan says:

“Today’s New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll shows National (48%, up 1%) with its largest lead over a potential Labour/ Greens alliance (42%, down 2%) since July 2013. The rise in support for National comes after Prime Minister John Key enjoyed the festivities at Auckland’s ‘Big Gay Out’, a traditional left-wing constituency, even playing a game of beer pong.

“The additional good news for Key this week is that New Zealand Government Confidence has increased to 140pts (up 1pt) – the highest it has been since July 2010 while today’s ANZ-Roy Morgan New Zealand Consumer Confidence Rating of 133.0 is only just below its highest level since 2007 – prior to the Global Financial Crisis.

“In recent weeks Key has also refused to outline whether National will enter coalition with smaller right-wing parties including Act NZ and the Conservatives, leaving that decision until closer to the election. If the trend of the past few weeks continue, National may win enough seats to govern in its own right.”

Electors were asked: “If a New Zealand Election were held today which party would receive your party vote?” This latest New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll on voting intention was conducted by telephone – both landline and mobile telephone, with a NZ wide cross-section of 859 electors from February 3-16, 2014. Of all electors surveyed 4% (unchanged) didn’t name a party.

Roy Morgan New Zealand Voting Intention - February 20, 2014

New Zealand GCR


For further information:

Gary Morgan
Office +61 3 9224 5213
Mobile +61 411 129 094

Michele Levine
Office +61 3 9224 5215
Mobile +61 411 129 093


Margin of Error

The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. The following table gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. The figures are approximate and for general guidance only, and assume a simple random sample.

Sample Size

Percentage Estimate

 

40%-60%

25% or 75%

10% or 90%

5% or 95%

1,000

±3.2

±2.7

±1.9

±1.4

1,500

±2.5

±2.2

±1.5

±1.1