Back To Listing

ALP (50.5%, down 1.5%) lead down again over L-NP (49.5%, up 1.5%) as Western Australia set to face a new half-Senate Election in April

Finding No. 5449 - This multi-mode Morgan Poll on Federal voting intention was conducted via SMS and face-to-face interviewing on the weekends of February 15/16 & 22/23, 2014 with an Australia-wide cross-section of 3,000 Australian electors aged 18+, of all electors surveyed 1.5% (down 0.5%) did not name a party.

If a Federal Election were held today it would be too close to call - two-party preferred support is ALP 50.5% (down 1.5% since the Morgan Poll of February 1/2 & 8/9, 2014) cf. L-NP 49.5% (up 1.5%) according to the Morgan Poll. This multi-mode Morgan Poll on voting intention was conducted over the last two weekends (February 15/16 & 22/23, 2014) with an Australia-wide cross-section of 3,000 Australian electors aged 18+.

The L-NP primary vote is 41% (up 0.5%) clearly ahead of the ALP primary vote at 35.5% (down 1.5%).

Among the minor parties Greens support is 10.5% (unchanged), support for the Palmer United Party (PUP) is 4.5% (unchanged) and support for Independents/Others is 8.5% (up 1%). Support for PUP is clearly highest in Queensland (9.5%).

Analysis by Gender

Analysis by Gender shows that ALP support is still strongest amongst women with the ALP (53.5%, down 1% since February 1/2 & 8/9, 2014) well ahead of the L-NP (46.5%, up 1%) on a two-party preferred basis. However, support amongst men still favours the L-NP 52.5% (up 2%) cf. ALP 47.5% (down 2%).

Analysis by States

Analysing voting intention by State shows the L-NP’s strongest State is still Western Australia with the L-NP (55%) clearly ahead of the ALP (45%) and well placed to perform well at the half-Senate election due in Western Australia.

The L-NP also leads in NSW: L-NP (52.5%) cf. ALP (47.5%), while the ALP leads in the four other States. Victoria: ALP (54.5%) cf. L-NP (45.5%); Queensland: ALP (52%) cf. L-NP (48%); South Australia: ALP (53.5%) cf. L-NP (46.5%) and Tasmania: ALP (50.5%) cf. L-NP (49.5%). Both South Australia and Tasmania face State elections on Saturday March 15, 2014.

Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating

The Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating has fallen significantly to 92.5 (down 11.5pts). This is the lowest Government Confidence has been since June 2013 – just before Julia Gillard was replaced as Prime Minister by Kevin Rudd. Now 37.5% (down 5.5%) of Australians say Australia is ‘heading in the right direction’ and 45% (up 6%) say Australia is ‘heading in the wrong direction’.

The Morgan Poll surveys a larger sample (including people who only use a mobile phone) than any other public opinion poll.

Gary Morgan says:

“The ALP (50.5%, down 1.5% since February 1/2 & 8/9, 2014) narrowly leads the L-NP (49.5%, up 1.5%) on a two-party preferred basis after Toyota announced it was pulling out of car manufacturing in Australia (February 10) and Alcoa announced the closure of its Point Henry aluminium smelter and two rolling mills (February 18). Both of these closures will cost thousands of Australian jobs.

“The closures emphasised the high cost of doing business in Australia and provided clear support for the Coalition Government’s pledge to remove the Carbon Tax. The closures also highlighted the Australian economy’s need for comprehensive industrial relations reform to improve productivity and flexibility in the workforce.

“The G-20 Finance Ministers Summit hosted by Treasurer Joe Hockey over the weekend made a point of the need for Governments of the world’s leading economies to take the tough decisions to reform their economies which will provide the best platform to create real growth in the global economy and with it the best chance for increasing employment opportunities worldwide.

“As we have stated repeatedly there is a significant problem of unemployment and under-employment in the Australian economy The Roy Morgan January 2014 employment figures show a record high total of 2.545 million Australians (20.0% of the workforce) are looking for work or looking for more work. Reducing this number significantly is the most important policy priority for the Abbott Government over the next two years as it seeks re-election in 2016.”

Electors were asked: “If an election for the House of Representatives were held today - which party will receive your first preference?” Visit the Roy Morgan Online Store to browse our range of Voter Profiles by electorate, detailed Voting Intention Demographics Reports and Most important Political Issue Reports (all 150 electorates ranked by an issue).

Finding No. 5449 - This multi-mode Morgan Poll on Federal voting intention was conducted via SMS and face-to-face interviewing on the weekends of February 15/16 & 22/23, 2014 with an Australia-wide cross-section of 3,000 Australian electors aged 18+, of all electors surveyed 1.5% (down 0.5%) did not name a party.


For further information:

Contact

Office

Mobile

Gary Morgan:

+61 3 9224 5213

+61 411 129 094

Michele Levine:

+61 3 9224 5215

+61 411 129 093


Data Tables


Morgan Poll on Federal voting Intention - February 24, 2014

Roy Morgan GCR

Margin of Error

The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. The following table gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. The figures are approximate and for general guidance only, and assume a simple random sample. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.

Sample Size

Percentage Estimate

40%-60%

25% or 75%

10% or 90%

5% or 95%

500

±4.5

±3.9

±2.7

±1.9

1,000

±3.2

±2.7

±1.9

±1.4

1,500

±2.6

±2.2

±1.5

±1.1

2,000

±2.2

±1.9

±1.3

±1.0