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National (48.5%) increases lead over Labour/ Greens (41%) – biggest lead for National since July 2013

This latest New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll on voting intention was conducted by telephone – both landline and mobile telephone, with a NZ wide cross-section of 977 electors from February 17 – March 2, 2014. Of all electors surveyed 3.5% (down 0.5%) didn’t name a party.

Today’s New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll shows National (48.5%, up 0.5%) increasing its lead over a potential Labour/ Greens alliance (41%, down 1%). Support for Key’s Coalition partners shows the Maori Party 1.5% (up 1%), ACT NZ (1%, unchanged) and United Future 0.5% (unchanged).

Support for the Labour Party has risen slightly to 30.5% (up 0.5%), while the Greens have fallen to 10.5% (down 1.5%), New Zealand First 4.5% (down 1%), Mana Party 0.5% (down 0.5%), Conservative Party of NZ 2.5% (up 1.5%) and Internet Party (0%, down 0.5%) while support for Others is 0% (unchanged).

If a National Election were held now the latest New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll shows that National would be returned to power.

The latest NZ Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating is at 141.5pts (up 1.5pts) with 65% (up 1.5pts) of New Zealanders saying New Zealand is ‘heading in the right direction’ compared to 23.5% (unchanged) that say New Zealand is ‘heading in the wrong direction’. This is the highest the NZ Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating has been since July 2010.

Gary Morgan says:

“Today’s New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll shows National (48.5%, up 0.5%) with its largest lead over a potential Labour/ Greens alliance (41%, down 1%) since July 2013. The rise in support for the Government is supported by the second straight increase in the NZ Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating to 141.5 (up 1.5pts) – now at its highest since July 2010.

“Prime Minister John Key announced last week that New Zealand’s minimum wage would increase from $13.75 per hour to $14.25 per hour on April 1. Although this has been derided as not large enough by Labour leader David Cunliffe, it appears that New Zealand electors are growing more confident with Key’s leadership. The ANZ-Roy Morgan New Zealand Consumer Confidence Rating (133.0) is far higher than across the Tasman in Australia (109.6) and the New Zealand Dollar has improved in recent weeks to be trading consistently above 82.5 US cents.”

Electors were asked: “If a New Zealand Election were held today which party would receive your party vote?” This latest New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll on voting intention was conducted by telephone – both landline and mobile telephone, with a NZ wide cross-section of 977 electors from February 17 – March 2, 2014. Of all electors surveyed 3.5% (down 0.5%) didn’t name a party.

For further information:

Gary Morgan
Office +61 3 9224 5213
Mobile +61 411 129 094

Michele Levine
Office +61 3 9224 5215
Mobile +61 411 129 093

New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll - Voting Intention - March 6, 2014

New Zealand GCR


Roy Morgan New Zealand Voting & Government Confidence Tables


Margin of Error

The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. The following table gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. The figures are approximate and for general guidance only, and assume a simple random sample.

Sample Size

Percentage Estimate

 

40%-60%

25% or 75%

10% or 90%

5% or 95%

1,000

±3.2

±2.7

±1.9

±1.4

1,500

±2.5

±2.2

±1.5

±1.1