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Jokowi (40%, up 1%) firm favourite for Indonesian Presidency over challengers Prabowo Subianto (17%, up 1%) and Aburizal Bakrie (11%, down 1%)

- This Morgan Poll on Indonesian Presidential and Parliamentary voting intention was conducted in February 2014 with an Indonesian-wide cross-section of 2,934 electors aged 17+. Face-to-face interviews were conducted in all 34 provinces, with effort made to ensure a balanced sample representing the electorate both geographically and demographically. 9% (down 2%) of electors couldn’t say who they support in the Presidential Election and 12% (down 2%) of electors couldn’t say who they support in the Parliamentary Elections.

Governor of Jakarta, Joko Widodo (40%, up 1%) – better known as Jokowi – remains the clearly preferred candidate for the Indonesian Presidency in February for July’s Indonesian Presidential Elections. Jokowi is clearly favoured ahead of main challengers Prabowo Subianto (17%, up 1%) and Aburizal Bakrie (11%, down 1%).

All three are well ahead of Wiranto (7%, unchanged), former Vice President Jusuf Kalla (5%, unchanged), former President Megawati Sukarnoputri (4%, down 1%), Dahlan Iskan (4%, unchanged), Mahfud MD (3%, unchanged) and Hatta Radjasa (2%, unchanged). No other candidates attract more than 1% support. A further 7% of Indonesians support other candidates – and a further 9% remain undecided.

Parliamentary Elections

The Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI-P) – the party of Jokowi, and also former President Megawati Sukarnoputri has maintained its strong lead and is now supported by 29% (up 2% in a month) of Indonesians for the Parliamentary Elections scheduled for early next month.

This is clearly ahead of former ruling party Golkar (20%, unchanged), Partai Gerindra (15%, up 1%) – the party of prominent Presidential candidate Prabowo Subianto, Partai Demokrat (10%, down 1%) – the party of current president SBY, and Partai Hanura (7%, up 1%).

Support for other parties is split many ways – PKB (6%, down 1%), PKS (4%, unchanged), PAN (4%, down 1%), PPP (2%, unchanged), Partai NasDem (2%, unchanged) and PBB (1%, unchanged) while 12% of Indonesians can’t say who they support.

Debnath Guharoy says:

"The results for February, prior to the nomination of Jokowi as PDIP’s presidential candidate, were amazingly good. The ‘Jokowi factor’ will give PDIP yet another boost. If the party uses him wisely in the next few weeks – in the right areas with the right message – they could be in a commanding position at the head of a coalition comprising very junior partners. Such an outcome in the April parliamentary elections would make the July presidential race an academic exercise."

Electors were asked: "If general elections for members of DPR were held now, which party's candidate would you vote for?" And for the presidential poll "Who would you most likely vote for as president in the next general elections?”

Finding No. 5485 - This Morgan Poll on Indonesian Presidential and Parliamentary voting intention was conducted in February 2014 with an Indonesian-wide cross-section of 2,934 electors aged 17+. Face-to-face interviews were conducted in all 34 provinces, with effort made to ensure a balanced sample representing the electorate both geographically and demographically. 9% (down 2%) of electors couldn’t say who they support in the Presidential Election and 12% (down 2%) of electors couldn’t say who they support in the Parliamentary Elections.

 

For further information:

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Debnath Guharoy:

+62 21 5297 1562

+62 812 1052 622

Ira Soekirman:

+62 21 5297 1562

+62 811 1654 000

 

Indonesian Presidential Voting Intention

 

 

Presidential Voting Intention

Presidential Candidates

October
2013

November
2013

December
2013

January
2014

February
2014

%

%

%

%

%

Jokowi (Joko Widodo)

37

41

38

39

40

Prabowo Subianto

15

15

14

16

17

Aburizal Bakrie

14

13

12

12

11

Wiranto

n/a

n/a

6

7

7

Jusuf Kalla

5

6

5

5

5

Megawati Sukarnoputri

6

5

5

5

4

Dahlan Iskan

6

5

5

4

4

Mahfud MD

3

2

4

3

3

Hatta Radjasa

2

2

3

2

2

Other*

12

11

8

7

7

TOTAL

100

100

100

100

100

*All other candidates asked – Surya Paloh, Gita Wirjawan, Anies Rasyid Baswedan Ani Yudhoyono, Yusril Ihza Mahendra, Pramono Edhie Wibowo, Sri Sultan Hamengkubuwono X, , Djoko Suyanto, and Sri Mulyani Indrawati got less than 2% of the vote.

 

Indonesian Parliamentary Voting Intention

Parliamentary Voting Intention

Political Parties

October
2013

November
2013

December
2013

January
2014

February
2014

%

%

%

%

%

PDIP

24

29

26

27

29

Partai Golkar

21

21

20

20

20

Partai Gerindra

13

12

12

14

15

Partai Demokrat

15

14

14

11

10

Partai Hanura

5

5

6

6

7

PKB

7

5

6

7

6

PKS

5

5

4

4

4

PAN

5

5

5

5

4

PPP

2

2

2

2

2

Partai NasDem

2

2

3

2

2

PBB

1

0

1

1

1

Other

0

0

1

1

0

TOTAL

100

100

100

100

100

Margin of Error

The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. The following table gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. The figures are approximate and for general guidance only, and assume a simple random sample. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.

Sample Size

Percentage Estimate

40%-60%

25% or 75%

10% or 90%

5% or 95%

1,000

±3.2

±2.7

±1.9

±1.4

2,000

±2.2

±1.9

±1.3

±1.0

3,000

±1.8

±1.6

±1.1

±0.8