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National (45.5%) now neck and neck with Labour/ Greens (45.5%); John Key calls election for September 20 as scandal involving Justice Minister Judith Collins sends National support lower

This latest New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll on voting intention was conducted by telephone – both landline and mobile telephone, with a NZ wide cross-section of 873 electors from March 3-16, 2014. Of all electors surveyed 4% (up 0.5%) didn’t name a party.

Today’s New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll shows National (45.5%, down 3%) now level with a potential Labour/ Greens alliance (45.5%, up 4.5%) after Prime Minister John Key called the New Zealand Election for September 20. Support for Key’s Coalition partners shows the Maori Party 2% (up 0.5%), ACT NZ (0.5%, down 0.5%) and United Future 0.5% (unchanged).

Support for the Labour Party has risen slightly to 31.5% (up 1%), the Greens have jumped to 14% (up 3.5%), New Zealand First 3.5% (down 1%), Mana Party 0% (down 0.5%), Conservative Party of NZ 1.5% (down 1%) and Internet Party (0%, unchanged) while support for Others is 1% (up 1%).

If a National Election were held now the latest New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll shows that the election would be too close to call.

The latest NZ Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating is at 135.5pts (down 6pts) with 61% (down 4pts) of New Zealanders saying New Zealand is ‘heading in the right direction’ compared to 25.5% (up 2%) that say New Zealand is ‘heading in the wrong direction’.

Gary Morgan says:

“Today’s New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll shows National (45.5%, down 3%) now dead level with a potential Labour/ Greens alliance (45.5%, up 4.5%) after Prime Minister John Key called the New Zealand Election for September 20, 2014 – two months earlier than expected.

“The fall in National’s vote comes amid the scandal engulfing Justice Minister Judith Collins, which continues to grow. Collins is accused of a conflict of interest in her dealings with New Zealand dairy company Oravida – her husband is a director of the firm.

“Oravida is a substantial exporter of dairy products to China, and there are questions about who paid for a dinner Collins had with Oravida founder and chairman Deyi Stone Shi in Shanghai last year. The Justice Minister has claimed that only tourism matters were discussed at the dinner, although Prime Minister Key has already expressed his disappointment in Collins.” 

Electors were asked: “If a New Zealand Election were held today which party would receive your party vote?” This latest New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll on voting intention was conducted by telephone – both landline and mobile telephone, with a NZ wide cross-section of 873 electors from March 3-16, 2014. Of all electors surveyed 4% (up 0.5%) didn’t name a party.

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Roy Morgan New Zealand Election 2014 Interactive Charts

Today Roy Morgan New Zealand introduces our interactive New Zealand Election charts. These interactive charts allow a deeper look at voting patterns in New Zealand over varying timeframes and provide election observers with the ability to pinpoint key turning points for the political parties.

In future weeks we will be adding key demographic variables to the charts including Age, Gender and Regional breakdowns to show which way key demographics are voting and which demographics each party needs to target to maximise their vote at this year’s New Zealand Election – called for September 20, 2014. View interactive New Zealand Election charts here.

Purchase the latest Roy Morgan New Zealand Electorate Profiles.

Roy Morgan New Zealand Voting & Government Confidence Tables


Margin of Error

The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. The following table gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. The figures are approximate and for general guidance only, and assume a simple random sample.

Sample Size

Percentage Estimate

 

40%-60%

25% or 75%

10% or 90%

5% or 95%

1,000

±3.2

±2.7

±1.9

±1.4

1,500

±2.5

±2.2

±1.5

±1.1