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ALP (54.5%) biggest lead over L-NP (45.5%) since losing the Election after ALP win narrowly in SA and L-NP win in Tasmania; ALP (52%) leads L-NP (48%) in WA before special WA half-Senate Election

Finding No. 5504 - This multi-mode Morgan Poll on Federal voting intention was conducted via SMS and face-to-face interviewing on the weekends of March 15/16 & 22/23, 2014 with an Australia-wide cross-section of 2,909 Australian electors aged 18+, of all electors surveyed 2% (unchanged) did not name a party. Sample sizes for the four States quoted: NSW (927 electors), Victoria (655 electors), Queensland (573 electors) and Western Australia (247 electors).

If a Federal Election were held today it would result in an ALP victory - two-party preferred support is ALP 54.5% (up 1% since the Morgan Poll of March  1/2 & 8/9, 2014) cf. L-NP 45.5% (down 1%) according to the Morgan Poll. This multi-mode Morgan Poll on voting intention was conducted over the last two weekends (March 15/16 & 22/23, 2014) with an Australia-wide cross-section of 2,909 Australian electors aged 18+.

The ALP primary vote is 38.5% (up 1.5%) now ahead of the L-NP 38% (down 1.5%) for the first time since last year’s September Election.

Among the minor parties Greens support is 11% (down 1%), support for the Palmer United Party (PUP) is 4.5% (up 0.5%) and support for Independents/Others is 8% (up 0.5%). Support for PUP is highest in Western Australia (10.5%) – which faces a Senate election in under two weeks.

Analysis by Gender

Analysis by Gender shows that ALP support is still strongest amongst women with the ALP (57%, unchanged since March 1/2 & 8/9, 2014) well ahead of the L-NP (43%, unchanged) on a two-party preferred basis. Support amongst men now favours the ALP 52.5% (up 3.5%) cf. L-NP 47.5% (down 3.5%).

Analysis by States

The ALP leads in Australia’s three largest States. NSW: ALP (54.5%) cf. L-NP (45.5%), Victoria: ALP (55%) cf. L-NP (45%) and Queensland: ALP (56.5%) cf. L-NP (43 .5%).

In Western Australia the ALP (52%) leads the L-NP (48%) only two weeks before Western Australia votes in a special half-Senate election on April 5. The ALP also leads narrowly in South Australia and leads in Tasmania after both States elected new State Governments during the surveying period.

Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating

The Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating has risen to 100 (up 5pts). Now 41.5% (up 3.5%) of Australians say Australia is ‘heading in the right direction’ and 41.5% (down 1.5%) say Australia is ‘heading in the wrong direction’.

The Morgan Poll surveys a larger sample (including people who only use a mobile phone) than any other public opinion poll.

Gary Morgan says:

“The ALP (54.5%, up 1% since March 1/2 & 8/9, 2014) has increased its strong lead over the L-NP (45.5%, down 1%) on a two-party preferred basis after both South Australia and Tasmania elected new State Governments during the last two weeks.

“Crucially, the ALP (52%) now leads the L-NP (48%) on a two-party preferred basis in Western Australia as West Australians prepare to vote for a new half-Senate in under two weeks.

“The Abbott Government is again campaigning on removing the Mining Tax and the Carbon Tax – both big issues in Western Australia while Opposition Leader Bill Shorten is urging West Australians to provide a judgment on the first six months of the Abbott Government, while also warning WA electors not to give the Abbott Government a ‘rubber stamp’ in the Senate to cut education and healthcare funding.

“Although the Liberals were favoured to win both State Elections, South Australian Labour Premier Jay Weatherill hung on despite polling only about 47% of the two-party preferred vote and has now gained the support of Independent Geoff Brock to form a minority Government.

“In contrast there was a strong swing to the Liberals (51.4%, up 12.4%) in Tasmania and large swings away from both the ALP (27.4%, down 9.5%) and the Greens (13.5%, down 8.1%). These results meant Liberal Leader Will Hodgman is the new Premier of Tasmania – the State’s first Liberal Premier since 1998.”

Electors were asked: “If an election for the House of Representatives were held today - which party will receive your first preference?” Visit the Roy Morgan Online Store to browse our range of Voter Profiles by electorate, detailed Voting Intention Demographics Reports and Most important Political Issue Reports (all 150 electorates ranked by an issue).

Finding No. 5504 - This multi-mode Morgan Poll on Federal voting intention was conducted via SMS and face-to-face interviewing on the weekends of March 15/16 & 22/23, 2014 with an Australia-wide cross-section of 2,909 Australian electors aged 18+, of all electors surveyed 2% (unchanged) did not name a party. Sample sizes for the four States quoted: NSW (927 electors), Victoria (655 electors), Queensland (573 electors) and Western Australia (247 electors).


For further information:

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Gary Morgan:

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Michele Levine:

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Data Tables


Morgan Poll on Federal Voting Intention - March 24, 2014

Roy Morgan GCR

Margin of Error

The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. The following table gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. The figures are approximate and for general guidance only, and assume a simple random sample. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.

Sample Size

Percentage Estimate

40%-60%

25% or 75%

10% or 90%

5% or 95%

500

±4.5

±3.9

±2.7

±1.9

1,000

±3.2

±2.7

±1.9

±1.4

1,500

±2.6

±2.2

±1.5

±1.1

2,000

±2.2

±1.9

±1.3

±1.0