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Australian Unemployment (11.6%) and Under-employment (7.5%) both fall substantially in March as younger Australians return to University

This Roy Morgan survey on Australia’s unemployment and ‘under-employed’* is based on weekly face-to-face interviews of 371,204 Australians aged 14 and over between January 2007 – March 2014 and includes 3,752 to-face interviews in March 2014.

In March 2014 an estimated 1.465 million Australians (11.6% of the workforce) were unemployed. March unemployment is down 96,000 (down 0.7%) from last month however unemployment is up 96,000 (up 0.8%) compared to the same time last year.

The Australian workforce* was 12,595,000 (down 70,000) comprising 7,364,000 full-time workers (up 46,000); 3,766,000 part-time workers (down 20,000); and 1,465,000 looking for work (down 96,000) according to the Roy Morgan monthly employment estimates. The Roy Morgan employment and unemployment figures do not include people who have dropped out of the workforce and given up looking.

Among those who were employed 945,000 Australians (7.5% of the workforce*) were under-employed, i.e. working part-time and looking for more work. This is 135,000 less than a month ago (down 1%).

In March in total an estimated 2.41 million Australians (19.1% of the workforce) were unemployed or under-employed. This is down 231,000 (down 1.7%) from February but higher than 12 months ago in March 2013 (up 105,000, up 0.9% from 2.305 million).

The latest Roy Morgan unemployment estimate of 11.6% is nearly double the figure currently quoted by the ABS for February 2014 (6%).

Roy Morgan Unemployed and ‘Under-employed’* Estimate

 

 

 

 

 

 

Unemployed or

‘Under-employed’*

Unemployed

Unemployed looking for

‘Under-employed’*

Full-time

Part-time

2013

‘000

%

‘000

%

‘000

‘000

‘000

%

Jan–Mar 2013

2,391

19.2

1,352

10.9

703

649

1,039

8.3

Apr–Jun 2013

2,243

18.1

1,176

9.5

588

587

1,067

8.6

Jul–Sep 2013

2,314

18.5

1,272

10.2

618

654

1,042

8.3

Oct–Dec 2013

2,439

19.5

1,337

10.7

734

603

1,102

8.8

2014

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Jan-Mar 2014

2,532

20.0

1,489

11.7

844

645

1,043

8.2

Months

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

February 2013

2,473

19.8

1,360

10.9

649

711

1,113

8.9

March 2013

2,305

18.2

1,369

10.8

715

654

936

7.4

April 2013

2,254

18.1

1,154

9.3

508

646

1,100

8.8

May 2013

2,129

17.3

1,168

9.5

629

539

961

7.8

June 2013

2,346

18.9

1,205

9.7

628

577

1,141

9.2

July 2013

2,398

19.1

1,267

10.1

616

651

1,131

9.0

August 2013

2,257

18.2

1,251

10.1

631

620

1,006

8.1

September 2013

2,286

18.3

1,297

10.4

607

690

989

7.9

October 2013

2,410

19.3

1,333

10.7

726

607

1,077

8.6

November 2013

2,404

19.3

1,268

10.2

700

568

1,136

9.1

December 2013

2,503

19.8

1,411

11.2

777

634

1,092

8.6

January 2014

2,545

20.0

1,440

11.3

851

589

1,105

8.7

February 2014

2,641

20.8

1,561

12.3

866

695

1,080

8.5

March 2014

2,410

19.1

1,465

11.6

814

651

945

7.5

*Workforce includes those employed and those looking for work – the unemployed.

Gary Morgan says:

“In March as younger Australians return to University Australian unemployment has fallen substantially (down 96,000) to 1.465 million Australians (11.6%, down 0.7%). In addition, under-employment fell significantly (down 135,000) to 945,000 Australians (7.5%, down 1.0%) – a total of 2.41 million (19.1%) Australians unemployed or under-employed.

This month’s fall in unemployment was driven by a combination of a falling workforce (12,595,000, down 70,000) and a rise in full-time employment (up 46,000 to 7,364,000). The fall was not unexpected – Australian unemployment has now fallen in eight of the last nine years in March as students return to University as we forewarned would happen in our Roy Morgan February employment release.

“Analysing the results by age group reveals unemployment fell most significantly amongst younger Australians: 18-24yr olds (24.5%, down 3.5% in March) and 25-34yr olds (10.0%, down 2.4%). Unemployment also fell amongst older Australians: 50-64yr olds (7.7%, down 1.6%) and those aged 65+ yrs old (2.7%, down 2.5%). However, unemployment rose amongst the largest part of the workforce, 35-49yr olds (11.4%, up 2.5%).

“Despite the expected fall in March, unemployment is now significantly higher than a year ago in March 2013 – up 96,000 over the past 12 months. This rise has been entirely driven by an increase in people looking for full-time work (now 814,000, up 99,000 since March 2013) while those looking for part-time work has barely changed over the same time period (651,000, down 3,000).

“The significant job losses announced in February, more than 10,000 job losses in total were announced between Qantas, Toyota, Alcoa, Telstra and IBM had a substantial negative impact on both Roy Morgan Business Confidence (117.3 in February, down 14.2pts in a month) and the ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Rating (the 2014 low of 109.6 was reached on March 1/2, 2014, but has since recovered to 114.3 today).

“As these indicators show, the Abbott Government’s top priority must be to immediately undertake significant labour market reforms to re-invigorate the Australian economy and provide real hope for unemployed and under-employed Australians. If urgent reforms to increase workplace productivity are not undertaken, there will be further job losses in the future which will undermine confidence in the economy and will ultimately be a major factor in the Abbott Government losing the next Federal Election.”

This Roy Morgan survey on Australia’s unemployment and ‘under-employed’* is based on weekly face-to-face interviews of 371,204 Australians aged 14 and over between January 2007 – March 2014 and includes 3,752 to-face interviews in March 2014.

*The ‘under-employed’ are those people who are in part-time work or consultants who are looking for more work. (Unfortunately the ABS does not release this figure in their monthly unemployment survey results.)


For further information:

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Gary Morgan:     

+61 3 9224 5213  

+61 411 129 094

Michele Levine:       

+61 3 9224 5215  

+61 411 129 093


Unemployment Data Tables

Roy Morgan Research Employment Estimates (2001-2014)

Roy Morgan Research Unemployment & Under-employment Estimates (2007-2014)

Roy Morgan Research vs ABS Employment Estimates (1992-2014)

ABS Employment Estimates (1992-2014)


Roy Morgan Unemployment - March 2014 - 11.6%

Roy Morgan Unemployment - March Quarter 2014 - 11.7%

Roy Morgan Under-employment - March 2014 - 19.1%


ROY MORGAN MEASURES REAL UNEMPLOYMENT IN AUSTRALIA

NOT THE ‘PERCEPTION’ OF UNEMPLOYMENT – JUNE 8, 2012

http://www.roymorgan.com/~/media/Files/Papers/2012/20120603.pdf

The Roy Morgan Unemployment estimate is obtained by surveying an Australia-wide cross section by face-to-face interviews. A person is classified as unemployed if they are looking for work, no matter when.

The results are not seasonally adjusted and provide an accurate measure of monthly unemployment estimates in Australia.

The Australian Bureau of Statistics Unemployment estimates are obtained by mostly telephone interviews. Households selected for the ABS Survey are interviewed each month for eight months, with one-eighth of the sample being replaced each month. The first interview is conducted face-to-face. Subsequent interviews are then conducted by telephone.

The ABS classifies a person as unemployed if, when surveyed, they have been actively looking for work in the four weeks up to the end of the reference week and if they were available for work in the reference week.

The Australian Bureau of Statistics Unemployment estimates are also seasonally adjusted.

For these reasons the Australian Bureau of Statistics Unemployment estimates are different from the Roy Morgan Unemployment estimate. Gary Morgan's concerns regarding the ABS Unemployment estimate is clearly outlined in his letter to the Australian Financial Review, which was not published.