Indonesian Legislative Election: PDI-P (37%) set to win largest share of seats ahead of Golkar (17%), Gerindra (14%) and Demokrat (10%), after official announcement of Jokowi as PDIP’s presidential candidate.

This month’s polling started from early March. But following the PDI-P’s announcement of Jokowi’s presidential candidacy, made on March 14, we decided to conduct a special poll so we could measure the ‘Jokowi factor’.

Here are the results of the two polls in March, before and after the announcement was made:

The PDI-P is set to win the largest share of seats at next week’s Indonesian Legislative Elections set for Wednesday April 9. Before the announcement, the PDI-P slipped 2 points from February to 27% and then jumped 10 points after the announcement to 37%. The PDI-P is well ahead of former ruling party Golkar (17%, down 5% from early March), Gerindra (14%, down 3%) and Demokrat (10%, down 1%) according to the latest Roy Morgan polls conducted in March with 2,300 Indonesian electors before the announcement of Jokowi’s candidacy and another 1,965 electors after the announcement.

Support for other parties is spread widely between Hanura (6%, unchanged), PKS (4%, unchanged), PAN (4%, unchanged), NasDem (3%, up 1%), PKB (3%, unchanged), PPP (2%, down 1%), while 10% of electors remain undecided.

Indonesian Presidential Election – July 9, 2014

Before the announcement in March, Jakarta Governor Joko Widodo – better known as Jokowi – slipped 5 points from February to 35% as the preferred Presidential candidate.  After the announcement, Jokowi jumped to 45%. He is now overwhelmingly the preferred Presidential candidate only a week before his party, the PDI-P, is set to win the largest share of seats at the Indonesian Legislative elections.  Jokowi is clearly favoured ahead of Prabowo Subianto of Gerindra (15%, down 3%), Aburizal Bakrie of Golkar (11%, down 4%) and Wiranto of Hanura (7%, down 1%).

Other candidates with notable support include former Vice-President Jusuf Kalla (4%, unchanged), former President Megawati Sukarnoputri (3%, unchanged), Dahlan Iskan (3%, down 2%), Hatta Rajasa (2%, down 1%), Yusril Ihza Mahendra (2%, up 1%) and Mahfud MD (2%, down 1%). No other candidates attract more than 1% support. A further 6% of Indonesians support other candidates – and a further 5% remain undecided.

Debnath Guharoy says:

"Anyone who wants to know the precise value of the ‘Jokowi factor in the parliamentary elections, now has a reliable answer: it is 10 percent. As soon as his candidacy for the presidential race was announced, PDIP-P’s fortunes jumped from 27 to 37 percent of voting intentions. The other major parties, Golkar, Gerindra and Democrat paid the price. In the presidential race, a similar 10-point boost now puts the Jakarta Governor at 45 percent, 30 points ahead of nearest contender Prabowo Subianto. The long race looks like it is well and truly over, even before it’s begun."

Electors were asked: "If general elections for members of DPR were held now, which party's candidate would you vote for?" And for the presidential poll "Who would you most likely vote for as president in the next general elections?”

Finding No. 5515 - This Morgan Poll on Indonesian Presidential and Parliamentary voting intention was conducted in March 2014 with an Indonesian-wide cross-section of 2,300 electors aged 17+ before March 14 and another 1,965 from March 15. Face-to-face interviews were conducted in all 34 provinces, with effort made to ensure a balanced sample representing the electorate both geographically and demographically. 5% of electors couldn’t say who they support in the Presidential Election and 10% of electors couldn’t say who they support in the Parliamentary Elections.

Listen to Debnath Guharoy on ABC AM, 9 April 2014

Debnath Guharoy talks to Brendan Trembath on the ABC's AM program regarding to upcoming Indonesian election.

For further information:

Indonesian Presidential Voting Intention

*All other candidates asked – Surya Paloh, Ani Yudhoyono, Gita Wirjawan, Sri Sultan Hamengkubuwono X, Anies Rasyid Baswedan, Djoko Suyanto, Pramono Edhie Wibowo,dan  Sri Mulyani Indrawati got less than 2% of the vote.

Indonesian Parliamentary Voting Intention

Margin of Error

The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. The following table gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. The figures are approximate and for general guidance only, and assume a simple random sample. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.