Back To Listing

Labour/ Greens (45%) regain lead over National (43%) for first time since January while Mana Party & Internet Party discuss alliance

This latest New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll on voting intention was conducted by telephone – both landline and mobile telephone, with a NZ wide cross-section of 877 electors from March 17-30, 2014. Of all electors surveyed 5.5% (up 1.5%) didn’t name a party.

Today’s New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll shows a potential Labour/Greens alliance (45%, down 0.5%) now ahead of National (43%, down 2.5%) for the first time since January. Support for Key’s Coalition partners is little changed with the Maori Party 1.5% (down 0.5%), ACT NZ (0.5%, unchanged) and United Future 0.5% (unchanged).

Support for the Labour Party has risen slightly to 32% (up 0.5%), the Greens have fallen to 13% (down 1%), New Zealand First 5.5% (up 2%), Mana Party 0.5% (up 0.5%), Conservative Party of NZ 2.5% (up 1%) and Internet Party (0.5%, up 0.5%) while support for Others is 0.5% (down 0.5%).

If a National Election were held now the latest New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll shows that minor party support would decide the new Government.

The latest NZ Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating is at 133pts (down 2.5pts) with 61% (unchanged) of New Zealanders saying New Zealand is ‘heading in the right direction’ compared to 28% (up 2.5%) that say New Zealand is ‘heading in the wrong direction’.

Gary Morgan says:

“Today’s New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll shows a potential Labour/ Greens alliance (45%, down 0.5%) now ahead of National (43%, down 2.5%) – their biggest lead since January. It appears the scandal around Justice Minister Judith Collins is continuing to dent support for National – now down 5.5% over the past month.

“However, today’s Roy Morgan New Zealand Poll also shows a clear split in support between the major parties which means minor parties are likely to play a big role in determining who forms Government in September. This could well include the new Internet Party which launched its election campaign last week.

“The much discussed Internet Party, founded by entrepreneur Kim Dotcom, has already had discussions with Hone Harawira’s Mana Party about combining their party lists in an attempt to get extra MPs into Parliament. In addition, Internet Party leader Dotcom has also claimed to have convinced a sitting MP to join his fledgling party which is not yet officially registered.”

Electors were asked: “If a New Zealand Election were held today which party would receive your party vote?” This latest New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll on voting intention was conducted by telephone – both landline and mobile telephone, with a NZ wide cross-section of 877 electors from March 17-30, 2014. Of all electors surveyed 5.5% (up 1.5%) didn’t name a party.

For further information:

Contact

Office

Mobile

Gary Morgan:

+61 3 9224 5213

+61 411 129 094

Michele Levine:

+61 3 9224 5215

+61 411 129 093


Roy Morgan New Zealand Election 2014 Interactive Charts

Today Roy Morgan New Zealand introduces our interactive New Zealand Election charts. These interactive charts allow a deeper look at voting patterns in New Zealand over varying timeframes and provide election observers with the ability to pinpoint key turning points for the political parties.

In future weeks we will be adding key demographic variables to the charts including Age, Gender and Regional breakdowns to show which way key demographics are voting and which demographics each party needs to target to maximise their vote at this year’s New Zealand Election – called for September 20, 2014. View interactive New Zealand Election charts here.

Purchase the latest Roy Morgan New Zealand Electorate Profiles.

Roy Morgan New Zealand Voting & Government Confidence Tables


Margin of Error

The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. The following table gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. The figures are approximate and for general guidance only, and assume a simple random sample.

Sample Size

Percentage Estimate

 

40%-60%

25% or 75%

10% or 90%

5% or 95%

1,000

±3.2

±2.7

±1.9

±1.4

1,500

±2.5

±2.2

±1.5

±1.1