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ALP (51.5%) lead is down over L-NP (48.5%) as special WA Senate Election shows both major parties losing support

Finding No. 5526 - This multi-mode Morgan Poll on Federal voting intention was conducted via SMS and face-to-face interviewing on the weekends of March 29/30 & April 5/6, 2014 with an Australia-wide cross-section of 2,869 Australian electors aged 18+, of all electors surveyed 1.5% (down 0.5%) did not name a party.

If a Federal Election were held today the ALP would still be elected (51.5%, down 3% over the past two weeks) over the L-NP (48.5%, up 3%) despite a strong rise in L-NP two-party preferred support according to today’s multi-mode Morgan Poll.

This Morgan Poll on voting intention was conducted over the last two weekends (March 29/30 & April 5/6, 2014) with an Australia-wide cross-section of 2,869 Australian electors aged 18+. The L-NP primary vote is 38.5% (up 0.5%) now clearly ahead of the ALP 34.5% (down 4%).

Among the minor parties Greens support is 12% (up 1%), support for the Palmer United Party (PUP) is 5% (up 0.5%) and support for Independents/Others is 10% (up 2%).

Analysis by Gender

Analysis by Gender shows that ALP support is still strongest amongst women with the ALP (53.5%, down 3.5% since March 15/16 & 22/23, 2014) well ahead of the L-NP (46.5%, up 3.5%) on a two-party preferred basis. Support amongst men shows both the ALP and the L-NP level on 50%.

Analysis by States

The ALP leads on a two-party preferred basis in Australia’s three largest States. NSW: ALP 51% cf. L-NP 49%, Victoria: ALP 56.5% cf. L-NP 43.5% and Queensland: ALP 51% cf. L-NP 49%.

However the L-NP leads clearly in both Western Australia: L-NP 54.5% cf. ALP 45.5% and South Australia: L-NP 54.5% cf. ALP 45.5%. In Tasmania the ALP 55% has regained a clear two-party preferred lead over the L-NP 45% despite a recent State election defeat.

Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating

The Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating has fallen to 98.5 (down 1.5pts). Now 39% (down 2.5%) of Australians say Australia is ‘heading in the right direction’ and 40.5% (down 1%) say Australia is ‘heading in the wrong direction’.

The Morgan Poll surveys a larger sample (including people who only use a mobile phone) than any other public opinion poll.

Gary Morgan says:

“Despite a 3% drop in support since mid-March the ALP (51.5%) has maintained its lead over the L-NP (48.5%, up 3%) on a two-party preferred basis on the weekend WA went back to the polls to elect six new Senators.

“The large drop in support for the ALP (primary vote of 34.5%, down 4%) comes after former Federal Labor MP Craig Thomson was sentenced to 12 months jail in late March and as the Royal Commission into Trade Union Governance and Corruption is due to hold its first hearing this Wednesday (April 9). The Royal Commission is certain to provide a high level of distraction to the Labor Party before it reports its findings to the Federal Government in December.

“The unprecedented WA half-Senate election on the weekend caused after the AEC misplaced over a thousand ballot papers has seen strong swings away from both major parties. The swings away from the Liberals (-5.49% since the September Election) and the ALP (-4.83%) were exceeded by the strong swings to the Greens (+6.39%) and the Palmer United Party (+7.48%).

“Present counting indicates the Liberals have won 2 WA Senate seats, the ALP has won 1, the Greens have won 1 and the Palmer United Party has also won 1. The final WA Senate seat will be decided on preferences and appears to be a straight battle between the Liberals and the ALP.”

Electors were asked: “If an election for the House of Representatives were held today - which party will receive your first preference?” Visit the Roy Morgan Online Store to browse our range of Voter Profiles by electorate, detailed Voting Intention Demographics Reports and Most important Political Issue Reports (all 150 electorates ranked by an issue).

Finding No. 5526 - This multi-mode Morgan Poll on Federal voting intention was conducted via SMS and face-to-face interviewing on the weekends of March 29/30 & April 5/6, 2014 with an Australia-wide cross-section of 2,869 Australian electors aged 18+, of all electors surveyed 1.5% (down 0.5%) did not name a party.


For further information:

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Gary Morgan:

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Michele Levine:

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Data Tables


Morgan Poll on Federal Voting Intention - April 7, 2014

Roy Morgan GCR

Margin of Error

The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. The following table gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. The figures are approximate and for general guidance only, and assume a simple random sample. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.

Sample Size

Percentage Estimate

40%-60%

25% or 75%

10% or 90%

5% or 95%

500

±4.5

±3.9

±2.7

±1.9

1,000

±3.2

±2.7

±1.9

±1.4

1,500

±2.6

±2.2

±1.5

±1.1

2,000

±2.2

±1.9

±1.3

±1.0