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Employed Australians think ‘finding a new job’ is the hardest since 1992 recession while clear majority of all Australians (61%) think unemployment will rise in the next 12 months

These findings come from a Morgan Poll conducted over the last two nights, April 8-9, 2014 with an Australia-wide cross-section of 562 men and women aged 14 or over on attitudes towards employment in the coming 12 months.

Finding a new job

In Australia, 49% (up 6% – the highest since 1992 and Australia’s last recession) of employed Australians say it might take longer to find a new job if they were to become unemployed compared to 44% (down 7% from February 2012 – the lowest since 1992) of workers that say if they became unemployed they’d be able to find a new job fairly quickly while 4% (up 1%) wouldn’t look and 3% (unchanged) don’t know.

Unemployment to increase / decrease

Now 61% (up 12% since February 2012) of Australians expect unemployment to increase in the next 12 months while 17% (down 5% – the lowest since 2007) say that unemployment will fall, 18% (down 7%) say unemployment will remain the same and 4% (unchanged) don’t know according to a special telephone Morgan Poll conducted over the last two nights, April 8/9, 2014.

Job security

A decreasing majority of employed Australians (74%, down 6% since February 2012 – the lowest since 1999) say their present job is safe, while 22% (up 5% – the highest since 2001) say there is a chance they may become unemployed and only 4% (up 1%) don’t know.

Gary Morgan says:

“Today’s special Morgan Poll shows only 44% (down 7% since February 2012) of employed Australians think if they were to become unemployed they’d be able to find a new job fairly quickly – the lowest since November 1992 when Australia was just emerging from the last recession. Now more employed Australians (49%, up 6%) say it may take longer to find a new job – the highest since November 1992.

“In addition a clear majority of Australians (61%, up 12%) expect unemployment to increase over the next 12 months compared to only 17% (down 5%) that expect unemployment to fall. The rise in this index is not surprising given the high number of prominent job losses announced in recent months by companies including Qantas, Toyota, Holden, Alcoa, Telstra, IBM, Phillip Morris, Shell and others.

“When it comes to how secure employed Australians feel in their jobs, there is still a great majority who feel their present job is safe (74%, down 6%). Even so, this is the lowest majority for 15 years since November 1999. Now a high 22% (up 5%) feel there is a chance they may become unemployed – the highest figure since December 2001.

“These figures strongly suggest that the ABS – which today announced Australian unemployment at 5.8% (down 0.3%) – massively understates Australia’s real unemployment. The more accurate Roy Morgan March unemployment figure (11.6%) provides a truer picture of the state of the Australian labour market. The understatement of unemployment by the ABS creates its own problems. Government policies and RBA decisions must be based on the real level of unemployment and underemployment in Australia not based on the clearly wrong artificially low ABS figure. Tragically for all Australians, the Reserve Bank of Australia relies on the inaccurate ABS figure to justify keeping Australian interest rates amongst the highest in the developed world - so misguided as this is the reason for the 'inflated value' of the Australian Dollar."

These findings come from a Morgan Poll conducted over the last two nights, April 8-9, 2014 with an Australia-wide cross-section of 562 men and women aged 14 or over on attitudes towards employment in the coming 12 months.


For further information:

Contact

Office

Mobile

Gary Morgan:

+61 3 9224 5213

+61 411 129 094

Michele Levine:

+61 3 9224 5215

+61 411 129 093


Unemployment

Respondents were first asked: “In the next 12 months, do you expect the number of unemployed in Australia to increase a lot, to increase slightly, remain the same, fall slightly, or fall a lot?”

Well over half (61%, up 12% since February 2012) of Australians expect unemployment to increase in the next 12 months. 17% (down 5%) expect unemployment to fall, while 18% (down 7%) believe there will be no change and (4%, unchanged) don’t know.

Expect Unemployment to…

Increase

Fall

No change

Don’t know*

Year

%

%

%

%

1975

64

21

15

*

1976

60

19

21

*

1977

64

20

16

*

1978

73

10

17

*

1979

69

10

21

*

1980

67

11

22

*

Dec ‘82

88

5

7

*

Oct ‘83

54

23

23

*

Nov ‘84

44

30

26

*

Nov ‘85

49

27

24

*

Nov ‘86

63

13

24

*

Dec ‘87

59

16

25

*

Nov ‘88

48

22

30

*

Nov ‘89

50

18

32

*

Nov ‘90

81

10

9

*

Aug ‘91

65

17

18

*

Nov ‘91

62

22

16

*

Jul ‘92

54

24

22

*

Nov ‘92

55

22

23

*

Nov ‘93

44

27

29

*

Nov ‘94

32

42

26

*

Nov ‘95

49

23

28

*

Jul ‘97

47

25

28

*

Nov ‘97

45

26

29

*

Nov ‘98  

53

20

27

*

Nov ‘99

38

29

33

*

Dec ‘00

50

20

30

*

Dec ‘01

60

16

24

*

Dec ‘02

44

19

37

*

Dec ‘03

39

22

39

*

Dec ‘04

36

24

40

*

Nov ‘05

40

21

39

*

Nov ‘06

40

24

32

4

Oct ‘07

26

17

47

10

Nov ‘08

70

20

8

2

Jun ‘09

70

18

11

1

Nov ‘09

52

24

22

2

Feb ‘12

49

22

25

4

Apr ‘14

61

17

18

4

“Don’t know” result included in “No change” Australia 1975-2005.


Job Security in Australia

Those respondents who work full-time or part-time were then asked: “Do you think your present job is safe, or do you think there's a chance you may become unemployed?”

Three quarters of Australians (74%, down 6% since February 2012) who work full or part-time say their present job is safe, while 22% (up 5%) say there is a chance they may become unemployed and 4% (up 1%) don’t know.

Job Security

Present job safe

Chance of unemployment

Don't know

Year

%

%

%

1975

76

21

3

1976

78

17

5

1977

82

15

3

1978

79

19

2

1979

77

20

3

1980

73

23

4

Dec ‘82

72

25

3

Oct ‘83

79

18

3

Nov ‘84

82

17

1

Nov ‘85

79

18

3

Nov ‘86

80

17

3

Dec ‘87

80

18

2

Nov ‘88

81

18

1

Nov ‘89

82

17

1

Nov ‘90

70

28

2

Aug ‘91

70

28

2

Nov ‘91

69

27

4

Jul ‘92

69

29

2

Nov ‘92

65

32

3

Nov ‘93

73

25

2

Nov ‘94

74

22

4

Nov ‘95

74

23

3

Jul ‘97

73

24

3

Nov ‘97

77

21

2

Nov ‘98

81

16

3

Nov ‘99

74

25

1

Dec ‘00

75

20

5

Dec ‘01

75

22

3

Dec ‘02

79

20

1

Dec ‘03

78

20

2

Dec ’04

79

19

2

Nov ‘05

83

15

2

Nov ‘06

81

17

2

Oct ‘07

80

18

2

Nov ‘08

80

18

2

Jun ‘09

77

21

2

Nov ‘09

82

16

2

Feb ‘12

80

17

3

Apr ‘14

74

22

4


Finding a New Job If Unemployed

Full-time and part-time workers were then asked: “If you became unemployed, do you think you'd be able to find a new job fairly quickly – or do you think it might take longer?”

In Australia, 44% (down 7% since February 2012) of workers say that if they were to become unemployed they’d be able to find a new job fairly quickly. 49% (up 6%) say it might take longer to find a new job, 4% (up 1%) wouldn’t look and 3% (unchanged) don’t know.

Finding a New Job
if Unemployed

New job found quickly

May take longer

Wouldn't look

Don’t know*

Year

%

%

%

%

1975

57

33

10

*

1976

57

33

10

*

1977

55

35

10

*

1978

50

41

9

*

1979

54

36

10

*

1980

50

39

11

*

Dec ‘82

44

46

10

*

Oct ‘83

51

41

8

*

Nov ‘84

61

33

6

*

Nov ‘85

58

34

8

*

Nov ‘86

61

30

9

*

Dec ‘87

65

30

5

*

Nov ‘88

69

26

5

*

Nov ‘89

68

26

6

*

Nov ‘90

49

45

6

*

Aug ‘91

39

53

8

*

Nov ‘91

39

53

8

*

Jul ‘92

38

53

9

*

Nov ‘92

39

54

7

*

Nov ‘93

50

43

7

*

Nov ‘94

60

33

7

*

Nov ‘95

58

32

10

*

Jul ‘97

52

42

6

*

Nov ‘97

58

36

6

*

Nov ‘98

55

38

7

*

Nov ‘99

63

30

7

*

Dec ‘00

59

33

8

*

Dec ‘01

54

39

7

*

Dec ‘02

66

29

5

*

Dec ‘03

64

33

3

*

Dec ‘04

67

28

5

*

Nov ‘05

62

34

4

*

Nov ‘06

63

32

5

*

Oct ‘07

72

21

4

3

Nov ‘08

63

34

2

1

Jun ‘09

57

36

4

3

Nov ‘09

54

39

3

4

Feb ‘12

51

43

3

3

Apr ‘14

44

49

4

3




























“Don’t know” result included in “No change” Australia 1975-2005.


Margin of Error

The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. The following table gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. The figures are approximate and for general guidance only, and assume a simple random sample. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.

Sample Size

Percentage Estimate

40%-60%

25% or 75%

10% or 90%

5% or 95%

500

±4.5

±3.9

±2.7

±1.9

1,000

±3.2

±2.7

±1.9

±1.4