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ALP (52%) lead virtually unchanged over L-NP (48%) as Prince William and the Duchess of Cambridge tour Australia

Finding No. 5547 - This multi-mode Morgan Poll on Federal voting intention was conducted via SMS and face-to-face interviewing on the weekends of April 12/13 & 19/20, 2014 with an Australia-wide cross-section of 2,955 Australian electors aged 18+, of all electors surveyed 1.5% (down 0.5%) did not name a party.

If a Federal Election were held today the ALP would still be elected (52%, up 0.5% over the past two weeks) over the L-NP (48%, down 0.5%) according to today’s multi-mode Morgan Poll.

This Morgan Poll on voting intention was conducted over the last two weekends (April 12/13 & 19/20, 2014) with an Australia-wide cross-section of 2,955 Australian electors aged 18+. The L-NP primary vote is 38.5% (unchanged) well ahead of the ALP 34% (down 0.5%).

Among the minor parties Greens support is 13% (up 1%) – the highest Greens vote since the Federal Election, support for the Palmer United Party (PUP) is 5% (unchanged) and support for Independents/Others is 9.5% (down 0.5%).

Analysis by Gender

Analysis by Gender shows that ALP support is still strongest amongst women with the ALP 55% well ahead of the L-NP 45% on a two-party preferred basis. Support amongst men is much closer with the L-NP 51% ahead of the ALP on 49%.

Analysis by States

The ALP leads on a two-party preferred basis in four of the six Australian States. Victoria: ALP 55.5% cf. L-NP 44.5%, Queensland: ALP 53% cf. L-NP 47%, Western Australia: ALP 51.5% cf. L-NP 48.5% and South Australia: ALP 53% cf. L-NP 47%.

However the L-NP leads in both New South Wales: L-NP 52% cf. ALP 48% and Tasmania: L-NP 53% cf. ALP 47%.

Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating

The Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating has risen to 106 (up 7.5pts). Now 43.5% (up 4.5%) of Australians say Australia is ‘heading in the right direction’ and 37.5% (down 3%) say Australia is ‘heading in the wrong direction’.

The Morgan Poll surveys a larger sample (including people who only use a mobile phone) than any other public opinion poll.

Gary Morgan says:

“The ALP (52%, up 0.5%) has maintained its lead over the L-NP (48%, down 0.5%) on a two-party preferred basis despite the Royal visit to Australia of Prince William, his wife the Duchess of Cambridge and their son Prince George which began last week.

“The two historic free-trade deals Prime Minister Tony Abbott signed in the past fortnight with two of Australia’s largest trading partners – Japan (second biggest) and South Korea (fourth biggest) which will lower trading barriers between Australia and the two North Asian countries – appears to have had little impact on the electorate.

“However, today’s news that the Palmer United Party will block the Coalition’s climate policy – known as the ‘Direct Action Plan’ is a sign of the complicated situation the Government will face in the Senate from July. To pass any legislation through the Senate (76 Senators) the Government (33 Senators) will need the support of either the Labour Party (25 Senators), the Greens (10 Senators), or the Palmer United Party (effectively 4 Senators) to gain the required votes."

Electors were asked: “If an election for the House of Representatives were held today - which party will receive your first preference?” Visit the Roy Morgan Online Store to browse our range of Voter Profiles by electorate, detailed Voting Intention Demographics Reports and Most important Political Issue Reports (all 150 electorates ranked by an issue).

Finding No. 5547 - This multi-mode Morgan Poll on Federal voting intention was conducted via SMS and face-to-face interviewing on the weekends of April 12/13 & 19/20, 2014 with an Australia-wide cross-section of 2,955 Australian electors aged 18+, of all electors surveyed 1.5% (down 0.5%) did not name a party.


For further information:

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Gary Morgan:

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Michele Levine:

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Data Tables


Morgan Poll on Federal Voting Intention - April 22, 2014

Roy Morgan GCR

Margin of Error

The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. The following table gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. The figures are approximate and for general guidance only, and assume a simple random sample. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.

Sample Size

Percentage Estimate

40%-60%

25% or 75%

10% or 90%

5% or 95%

500

±4.5

±3.9

±2.7

±1.9

1,000

±3.2

±2.7

±1.9

±1.4

1,500

±2.6

±2.2

±1.5

±1.1

2,000

±2.2

±1.9

±1.3

±1.0