Back To Listing

National (48.5%) with biggest lead over Labour/ Greens (40%) since July 2013 as New Zealanders celebrate the Royal visit of Prince William and the Duchess of Cambridge

This latest New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll on voting intention was conducted by telephone – both landline and mobile telephone, with a NZ wide cross-section of 810 electors from March 31 – April 14, 2014. Of all electors surveyed 5% (down 0.5%) didn’t name a party.

Today’s New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll shows a large jump in support for National (48.5%, up 5.5%) now with its largest lead over a potential Labour/Greens alliance (40%, down 5%) since July 2013 as New Zealanders celebrated the visit of Prince William and the Duchess of Cambridge.

Support for Key’s Coalition partners is little changed with the Maori Party 1% (down 0.5%), ACT NZ (0.5%, unchanged) and United Future 0% (down 0.5%).

Support for the Labour Party has fallen to 28.5% (down 3.5%) – clearly the lowest support under new Labour Leader David Cunliffe, and the lowest Labour support since April 2012, the Greens have fallen to 11.5% (down 1.5%), New Zealand First 5.5% (unchanged), Mana Party 1% (up 0.5%), Conservative Party of NZ 2% (down 0.5%) and Internet Party (1%, up 0.5%) while support for Others is 0.5% (unchanged).

If a National Election were held now the latest New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll shows that the National party would regain Government for a third term.

The latest NZ Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating has jumped to 143pts (up 10pts) with 65% (down 4%) of New Zealanders saying New Zealand is ‘heading in the right direction’ compared to 22% (down 6%) that say New Zealand is ‘heading in the wrong direction’.

Gary Morgan says:

“Today’s New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll shows National (48.5%) gaining its strongest lead over a potential Labour/ Greens alliance (40%, down 5%) since July 2013 as Prince William and the Duchess of Cambridge toured New Zealand. Support for Labour (28.5%, down 3.5%) has slumped to its lowest for nearly two years – since April 2012.

“The slump in support for the main Opposition parties suggests Prime Minister John Key is set to win a third term in office as Prime Minister at September’s election. The strong rise in support for National shows electors have moved past the scandal involving Justice Minister Judith Collins – despite Labour MPs continuing to press the issue. Today’s results show it is time Labour focused more on articulating its policies for the electorate than trying to damage National.

“The potential tie-up between the as yet unregistered Internet Party and Hone Harawira’s Mana Party is still on the cards after Internet Party founder Kim Dotcom addressed Mana Party members last weekend. If the two parties can agree to work together on one list they are likely to get an extra 1 or 2 candidates into Parliament on the back of Hone Harawira retaining his Maori electorate of Te Tai Tokerau.”

Electors were asked: “If a New Zealand Election were held today which party would receive your party vote?” This latest New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll on voting intention was conducted by telephone – both landline and mobile telephone, with a NZ wide cross-section of 810 electors from March 31 – April 14, 2014. Of all electors surveyed 5% (down 0.5%) didn’t name a party.



For further information:

Gary Morgan
Office +61 3 9224 5213
Mobile +61 411 129 094

Michele Levine
Office +61 3 9224 5215
Mobile +61 411 129 093


Margin of Error

The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. The following table gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. The figures are approximate and for general guidance only, and assume a simple random sample.



Sample Size

Percentage Estimate

 

40%-60%

25% or 75%

10% or 90%

5% or 95%

1,000

±3.2

±2.7

±1.9

±1.4

1,500

±2.5

±2.2

±1.5

±1.1