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ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Falls Sharply

Data collected last weekend (Saturday and Sunday), based on 1,117 face-to-face interviews.

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence fell sharply in the week ending 27 April, declining 4.4% to 111.0. This is likely to have been driven by news flow around the upcoming Government budget, following a speech by Treasurer Joe Hockey last week - and associated widespread and repeated media coverage - that detailed some spending cuts over coming years. The four-week moving average of ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence is now declining modestly (-0.7%) in weekly change terms.

Consumer Confidence has again dipped below its long-run average, after spending much of the past three months see-sawing around this level. Given that consumer confidence can react strongly to expectations around government policy – it rose by around 6% in the months around the September election last year, it is possible that confidence could remain volatile in the weeks around the 13 May Budget.

The weakness in the week was driven by a sharp fall in consumers’ perceptions of ‘economic conditions next year’ (-11.4%) and ‘economic conditions in next five years’ (-4.6%). However, the sub-indices of confidence (particularly perceptions of ‘financial situations compared to a year ago’) that are most correlated with households’ spending decisions declined relatively more modestly last week (-3.7%). We will watch developments in this series closely to ascertain whether there is likely to be any impact significantly on consumer spending.

While we will continue to monitor developments in Consumer Confidence closely, the general improvement in sentiment over the past 18 months is consistent with ANZ’s view that consumer spending will improve this year. ANZ forecasts household consumption to increase by 3.0% in real terms this year and next.

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence - April 29, 2014

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence - April 29, 2014

ANZ-Roy Morgan Australian Consumer Confidence - April 29, 2014

Click to view the PDF of the ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Weekly Pulse.

Latest ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Releases

Latest ANZ-Roy Morgan Australian & Asia-Pacific Consumer Confidence Data Tables

Related Research Reports

The latest Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Monthly Report is available on the Roy Morgan Online Store. It provides demographic breakdowns for Age, Sex, State, Region (Capital Cities/ Country), Generations, Lifecycle, Socio-Economic Scale, Work Status, Occupation, Home Ownership, Voting Intention, Roy Morgan Value Segments and more.

You can also view our monitor of Monthly Australian Unemployment & Under-employment Estimates.