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ALP (55%) has biggest lead over L-NP (45%) since October 2010 after Government proposes a ‘deficit levy’ and an increase in the pensionable age to 70

Finding No. 5566 – This multi-mode Morgan Poll on Federal voting intention was conducted via SMS and face-to-face interviewing on the weekends of April 26/27 & May 3/4, 2014 with an Australia-wide cross-section of 3,077 Australian electors aged 18+, of all electors surveyed 2.5% (up 1%) did not name a party.

If a Federal Election were held today the ALP would win easily (55%, up 3% over the past two weeks) over the L-NP (45%, down 3%) according to today’s multi-mode Morgan Poll.

This Morgan Poll on voting intention was conducted over the last two weekends (April 26/27 & May 3/4, 2014) with an Australia-wide cross-section of 3,077 Australian electors aged 18+. The L-NP primary vote is 37.5% (down 1% to the lowest since the Election) now just ahead of the ALP 37% (up 3%).

Among the minor parties Greens support is 12% (down 1%), support for the Palmer United Party (PUP) is 5.5% (up 0.5%) and support for Independents/Others is 8% (down 1.5%).

Analysis by Gender

Analysis by Gender shows that ALP support remains strongest amongst women with the ALP 59% (up 4%) well ahead of the L-NP 41% (down 4%) on a two-party preferred basis. Support amongst men is much closer with the ALP 50.5% (up 1.5%) ahead of the L-NP on 49.5% (down 1.5%).

Analysis by States

The ALP leads on a two-party preferred basis in five of the six Australian States. New South Wales: ALP 52.5% cf. L-NP 47.5%, Victoria: ALP 58.5% cf. L-NP 41.5%, Queensland: ALP 54.5% cf. L-NP 45.5%, South Australia: ALP 59% cf. L-NP 41% and Tasmania: ALP 58.5% cf. L-NP 41.5%.

However in Western Australia the L-NP (51.5%) leads the ALP (48.5%).

Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating

The Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating has fallen to 96.5 (down 9.5pts). Now 39.5% (down 4%) of Australians say Australia is ‘heading in the right direction’ and 43% (up 5.5%) say Australia is ‘heading in the wrong direction’.

The Morgan Poll surveys a larger sample (including people who only use a mobile phone) than any other public opinion poll.

Gary Morgan says:

“Despite the increase in jobs (up 191,000 to a record high 11,321,000), the latest Roy Morgan research shows Government Confidence has plummeted this week to 96.5pts (down 9.5pts) adding to last week’s large fall in the ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Rating to 111.0 (down 5.1pts) and support for the L-NP Government is now 10 points behind the ALP on a two-party preferred basis.

“This coincides with public discussion of proposed changes such as a lower cut off for paid parental leave and a temporary ‘deficit levy’; and generally bad economic news regarding Australia’s ability to fund its retirement.

“To understand which of these issues is really driving the drop in Consumer Confidence and support for the L-NP Government, subscribe to Roy Morgan detailed analytics – analysis by age, gender, State, income, employment status, education level, marital status, occupation and more for a fee of $4,800.”

Electors were asked: “If an election for the House of Representatives were held today – which party will receive your first preference?” Visit the Roy Morgan Online Store to browse our range of Voter Profiles by electorate, detailed Voting Intention Demographics Reports and Most important Political Issue Reports (all 150 electorates ranked by an issue).

Finding No. 5566 – This multi-mode Morgan Poll on Federal voting intention was conducted via SMS and face-to-face interviewing on the weekends of April 26/27 & May 3/4, 2014 with an Australia-wide cross-section of 3,077 Australian electors aged 18+, of all electors surveyed 2.5% (up 1%) did not name a party.

For further information:

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Gary Morgan:

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Michele Levine:

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Data Tables


Morgan Poll on Federal Voting Intention - May 5, 2014

Roy Morgan GCR

Margin of Error

The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. The following table gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. The figures are approximate and for general guidance only, and assume a simple random sample. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.

Sample Size

Percentage Estimate

40%-60%

25% or 75%

10% or 90%

5% or 95%

500

±4.5

±3.9

±2.7

±1.9

1,000

±3.2

±2.7

±1.9

±1.4

1,500

±2.6

±2.2

±1.5

±1.1

2,000

±2.2

±1.9

±1.3

±1.0