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Australian Business Confidence steadies in April – prior to the release of the National Commission of Audit Report

Source: Business Confidence, Roy Morgan Business Single Source (Australia), December 2010 – April 2014, average monthly sample, n = 2,111.
Roy Morgan Research’s latest Business Confidence survey in April 2014 remained steady on 120.9 compared to 120.6 in March and remains around the level seen in the month prior to the federal election (August 2013, 119.6). The lift in confidence to 136.3 seen with the new government has now dissipated and is likely to fall further in May as a result of the release of the National Commission of Audit Report and the Federal Budget. These April figures are the results of 1,325 interviews with all types of businesses across Australia.

In April there were some improvements in the proportion of businesses expecting that their business would be better off financially next year and that the economy would improve in the next 12 months. On the other hand there was some deterioration in the proportion of businesses considering the next 12 months to be a good time to invest in growing their business and an increase in the number that believe they are now worse off financially than they were 12 months ago.

Monthly Business Confidence - Australia

business-confidence-april

Source: Business Confidence, Roy Morgan Business Single Source (Australia), December 2010 – April 2014, average monthly sample, n = 2,111.

Mining remains the most confident sector (150.9), followed by finance and insurance (139.9). The high-profile sectors in which hopes for economic recovery have been focused remain below the average confidence level and are showing no improvement, with retail on 108.0, construction at 113.7 and manufacturing at 115.3.

All states now have very similar levels of confidence, with Western Australia the highest on 126.4, followed by Tasmania (122.4), South Australia (121.4), New South Wales (119.2), Victoria (119.0) and Queensland (117.6). In April, Victoria, Queensland and South Australia all showed some decline while New South Wales and Tasmania improved.

Norman Morris, Industry Communications Director, Roy Morgan Research, says:

“The lack of improvement in business confidence in April was probably to be expected given the uncertainty regarding the forthcoming budget and the rumours that were circulating during the month. The hoped-for improvement in confidence in the key areas of retail, construction and manufacturing, were seen as making up for a slowdown in the mining industry, did not happen during April. These sectors all remain below average in confidence, which is not a good sign for economic recovery.

The National Commission of Audit Report released at the beginning of May has had a dramatic negative impact on the ANZ- Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence level in the first two weeks of this month and is likely to have a negative impact on business confidence in May and beyond. The full impact of the report will depend on the extent to which the Federal Government implements the commission’s recommendations.

For comments or more information please contact:

Norman Morris
Industry Communications Director
Office: +61 (3) 9224 5172
Norman.Morris@roymorgan.com

Related research findings

Click here to purchase the Business Confidence – Monthly Detailed Report in Australia.

Click here to purchase the Business Banking Satisfaction Monthly Report in Australia.

Click here to purchase the Consumer Confidence – Monthly Detailed Report in Australia.

Click here to purchase the Consumer Banking Satisfaction Monthly Report in Australia.

About Roy Morgan Research

Roy Morgan Research is the largest independent Australian research company, with offices in each state of Australia, as well as in New Zealand, the United States and the United Kingdom. A full service research organisation specialising in omnibus and syndicated data, Roy Morgan Research has over 70 years’ experience in collecting objective, independent information on consumers.

In Australia, Roy Morgan Research is considered to be the authoritative source of information on financial behaviour, readership, voting intentions and consumer confidence. Roy Morgan Research is a specialist in recontact customised surveys which provide invaluable and effective qualitative and quantitative information regarding customers and target markets.

Margin of Error

The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. Margin of error gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.

Sample Size

Percentage Estimate

40%-60%

25% or 75%

10% or 90%

5% or 95%

5,000

±1.4

±1.2

±0.8

±0.6

7,500

±1.1

±1.0

±0.7

±0.5

10,000

±1.0

±0.9

±0.6

±0.4

20,000

±0.7

±0.6

±0.4

±0.3

50,000

±0.4

±0.4

±0.3

±0.2

 

For comments or more information please contact:
Norman Morris, Industry Communications Director
Office: +61 (03) 9224 5172
Norman.Morris@roymorgan.com