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ALP (57.5%) surges to biggest lead over L-NP (42.5%) since early August 2010 after Joe Hockey delivers his first Federal Budget. The Palmer United Party increases its support to 6.5% (up 1%) - a record high for PUP

Finding No. 5591 – This multi-mode Morgan Poll on Federal voting intention was conducted via SMS and face-to-face interviewing on the weekend of May 17/18, 2014 with an Australia-wide cross-section of 2,284 Australian electors aged 18+, of all electors surveyed 1% (down 1.5%) did not name a party.

If a Federal Election were held today the ALP would win in a landslide (57.5%, up 2.5% over the past two weeks) over the L-NP (42.5%, down 2.5%) according to today’s multi-mode Morgan Poll.

This Morgan Poll on voting intention was conducted last weekend (May 17/18, 2014) with an Australia-wide cross-section of 2,284 Australian electors aged 18+. The ALP primary vote is at 38.5% (up 1.5%) whilst the L-NP primary vote has slumped to 35% (down 2.5% - the lowest since December 2012).

Among the minor parties Greens support is 12% (unchanged), support for the Palmer United Party (PUP) is 6.5% (up 1% to a record high) and support for Independents/Others is 8% (unchanged).

Support for the Palmer United Party is highest in Palmer’s home State of Queensland (11%), but is also significant in New South Wales (6%), South Australia (5.5%), Victoria (5%) and Western Australia (4%).

Analysis by Gender

Analysis by Gender shows that ALP support remains strongest amongst women with the ALP 61% (up 2%) well ahead of the L-NP 39% (down 2%) on a two-party preferred basis. Support amongst men is closer with the ALP 54% (up 3.5%) now clearly ahead of the L-NP on 46% (down 3.5%).

Analysis by States

The ALP leads on a two-party preferred basis in all six Australian States. New South Wales: ALP 58.5% cf. L-NP 41.5%, Victoria: ALP 59.5% cf. L-NP 40.5%, Queensland: ALP 55% cf. L-NP 45%, South Australia: ALP 53.5% cf. L-NP 46.5%, Western Australia: ALP 53% cf. ALP 47% and Tasmania: ALP 54.5% cf. L-NP 45.5%.

Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating

The Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating has fallen to 93.5 (down 3pts) – the lowest since last year’s Federal Election. Now 45.5% (up 2.5%) of Australians say Australia is ‘heading in the wrong direction’ and just 39% (down 0.5%) say Australia is ‘heading in the right direction’.

The Morgan Poll surveys a larger sample (including people who only use a mobile phone) than any other public opinion poll.

Gary Morgan says:

 “ALP support has surged to 57.5% (up 2.5%) after Federal Treasurer Joe Hockey delivered his first Federal Budget last Tuesday, now well ahead of the L-NP Government 42.5% (down 2.5%) on a two-party preferred basis. This is the largest ALP lead since August 2010 just before the 2010 Federal Election.

“The fall in support for the Abbott Government comes after weeks of rhetoric of a ‘tough’ Budget delivered by Hockey – tomorrow’s ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Rating will show the reaction of Australian consumers to the Budget – although the ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Rating has already fallen from 116.1 (April 19/20, 2014) to 103.7 last weekend.

“Hockey’s Federal Budget certainly delivered on the tough rhetoric – a special Roy Morgan SMS Business & Consumer Pulse survey carried out after the Federal Budget was delivered showed that 88% of Australian consumers and 74% of Australian businesses saw no benefit for them in last Tuesday’s Federal Budget.

“The tough measures in the Budget include making Australians under 30 ‘work for the dole’ and being forced to wait for up to six months before receiving unemployment benefits, an increase to the pensionable age to 70, and several unpopular taxation measures including a return of the bi-annual fuel excise increase, a ‘deficit levy’ to be paid by all Australians earning over $180,000 per year and a $7 co-payment for Australians to pay each time they visit the doctor.

“The combination of all these measures has already severely dinted Australian confidence – even before the measures were officially announced, and today’s Morgan Poll shows the Government has lost considerable support because of the Budget. Interestingly, one of the beneficiaries of the tough Federal Budget is Clive Palmer – the Palmer United Party support has increased to 6.5% (up 1%) – now at a record high level of national support – including support of 11% in Palmer’s home State of Queensland.”

Electors were asked: “If an election for the House of Representatives were held today – which party will receive your first preference?” Visit the Roy Morgan Online Store to browse our range of Voter Profiles by electorate, detailed Voting Intention Demographics Reports and Most important Political Issue Reports (all 150 electorates ranked by an issue).

Finding No. 5591 – This multi-mode Morgan Poll on Federal voting intention was conducted via SMS and face-to-face interviewing on the weekend of May 17/18, 2014 with an Australia-wide cross-section of 2,284 Australian electors aged 18+, of all electors surveyed 1% (down 1.5%) did not name a party.


For further information:

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Gary Morgan:

+61 3 9224 5213

+61 411 129 094

Michele Levine:

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+61 411 129 093


Data Tables


Morgan Poll on Federal Voting Intention - May 19, 2014

Morgan Poll on Federal Voting Intention - May 19, 2014

Margin of Error

The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. The following table gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. The figures are approximate and for general guidance only, and assume a simple random sample. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.

Sample Size

Percentage Estimate

40%-60%

25% or 75%

10% or 90%

5% or 95%

500

±4.5

±3.9

±2.7

±1.9

1,000

±3.2

±2.7

±1.9

±1.4

1,500

±2.6

±2.2

±1.5

±1.1

2,000

±2.2

±1.9

±1.3

±1.0